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Detroit Lions 34, Giants 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at OT 4:26, 4th and 5, on Jameis Winston — 73.8 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 4:26 · 4th and 5
Jameis Winston
Lions
(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Dome
Lions closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Detroit Lions 34–27. Biggest swing: OT 4:26, Lions +73.8% win probability on one snap.
73.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsOT 9:4239-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
49.9pts
Jameis WinstonGiantsOT 8:43(8:43) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 41 for 11 yards (32-B.Branch). Penalty on DET-54-A.McNeill, Defensive Offside, declined.
31.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.78 expected points per carry, against Giants at -0.22 expected points per carry.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 14 chunk plays, against Lions at 9 chunk plays.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.44 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.14 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Lions won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 44 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Giants187 of 199 plays carry both curves
(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Swing +73.8 for LionsExpected points +2.09 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 198
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 4:26NYG +74% win prob(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
Overtime · 9:42NYG +50% win prob39-J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Overtime · 8:43DET +32% win prob(8:43) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston scrambles left end ran ob at NYG 41 for 11 yards (32-B.Branch). Penalty on DET-54-A.McNeill, Defensive Offside, declined.
Overtime · 9:53DET +31% win prob(9:53) 0-J.Gibbs right tackle for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 10:50NYG +25% win prob(10:50) 19-J.Winston pass short right intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Harper at NYG 45. 12-T.Harper to NYG 45 for no gain (17-W.Robinson).
4th · 5:36DET +20% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass deep left to 84-T.Johnson to DET 18 for 39 yards (12-T.Harper).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 69-yard rushing touchdown with 9:53 left in overtime put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:33Jake Bates·59-yd field goal59-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+327–27
Overtime9:53Jahmyr Gibbs·69-yd TD run69-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–34
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryLions
Giants4–3Lions
518Total yards494
6.8Yards per play7.8
37%Success rate51%
50%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
14Explosive plays9
22First downs22
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Giants ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.78 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Giants: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.44Giants: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.14Lions: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.22Giants: −0.22 expected points added per play
+0.78Lions: +0.78 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 76 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Lions’s 63 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Lions 6.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's play-action rate turned over: 12.9% in week 11 against 38.5% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points.
NYG's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 11 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Lions17.9%
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteNYG's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 38.5%, 16.3 points above their season mean of 22.2% and 1.8 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Winston sacked−74% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:26) (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston sacked at DET 31 for -4 yards (97-A.Hutchinson).
OT 4:26 · Giants · 4th & 5 at DET 27 · lost 4 · -2.09 EP · −73.8% win probability
185 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 199 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 185 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 193. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 87 yards from the NYG 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
199 of 199 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
199
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
45%
Yards
1011
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR41+0.0244%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0667%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.4469%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.7564%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.3114%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
199 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
199 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a trick play, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.4 seconds
Giants6Lions0
Giants7Lions0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Lions 39
Punt11 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Giants 36
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 8 to the Giants 9
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 48
Giants10Lions0
Field goal10 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Lions 3
2nd quarter53 plays
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Giants10Lions6
Giants10Lions7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Giants 1
Giants16Lions7
Giants17Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 31 to the Lions 12
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 39
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 21
Giants17Lions13
Giants17Lions14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 39 to the Giants 3
Giants20Lions14
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 18 to the Lions 26
Giants20Lions17
Field goal8 plays, from the Lions 43 to the Giants 19
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 24 to the Giants 43
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Lions 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Lions 10 to the Giants 19
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Giants 42
4th quarter56 plays
Giants26Lions17
Giants27Lions17
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 49 to the Lions 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants27Lions23
Giants27Lions24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Giants 49
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 45 to the Giants 44
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.0 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
The period ended19 plays, from the Giants 8 to the Lions 2
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Giants27Lions27
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 6 to the Giants 36
The period ended5 plays
Overtime18 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Giants27Lions33
Giants27Lions34
Touchdown3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Lions 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -14
Closing total
50.5
Giants moneyline
+675
Lions moneyline
-1050
Lions closed -14, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50.5; the game landed 61 — over by 10.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Giants 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Brian Daboll vs Dan Campbell
4th · 1:12
DET +17% win prob
(1:12) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 0-J.Gibbs to NYG 41 for 12 yards (8-J.Holland). ** Injury Update: NYG-22-A.Phillips has returned to the game. PENALTY on NYG-8-J.Holland, Defensive Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
4th · 0:33DET +15% win prob(:33) 39-J.Bates 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
