2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

New York Jets

Baltimore RavensWinner

BAL -14 no coverU 44.5 ✓Ravens closed -14, won by 13 — but didn't cover.

Baltimore Ravens 23–10. Biggest swing: Q3 14:43, BAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:43NYJ 7 — BAL 3BAL ball · 3rd & 15BAL 62%

(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:43BAL +10% win prob(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Q2 · 4:09BAL +8% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 3-J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:38NYJ +8% win prob(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor sacked at BAL 47 for -8 yards (41-D.Jones).
Q3 · 3:35BAL +8% win prob(3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 4:09NYJ Touchdown
(4:09) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 3-J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BAL 0
Q2 · 1:39BAL Field goal
(1:39) 33-T.Loop 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BAL 3
Q3 · 8:54BAL Touchdown
(8:54) 22-D.Henry right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BAL 10
Q3 · 3:35BAL Touchdown
(3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NYJ 7 — BAL 17
Q4 · 14:46NYJ Field goal
(14:46) 6-N.Folk 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — BAL 17
Q4 · 9:39BAL Field goal
(9:39) 33-T.Loop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — BAL 20
Q4 · 0:45BAL Field goal
(:45) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: NYJ 10 — BAL 23

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jets	Ravens
Offensive plays	57	56
Total yards	282 (edge)	243
Yards per play	4.9 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	-0.17	-0.05 (edge)
Success rate	35% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	60%	52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	-0.07
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.56	-0.03 (edge)
Third downs	4/11 (edge)	2/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Jets outgained Ravens 282–243 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Tyrod TaylorQB

17/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.8 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

13/23, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-0.1 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

21 att, 64 yds, 2 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Breece HallRB

16 att, 44 yds, 0 TD

-8.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Breece HallRB

4/4 for 75 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

John Metchie IIIWR

6/7 for 65 yds, 1 TD

26% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 43	5	4	0:58	Punt
2	BAL	BAL 18	8	18	4:24	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 21	9	37	5:39	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 6	4	7	1:44	Punt
5	NYJ	NYJ 40	7	16	3:02	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 15	6	3	3:40	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 21	13	79	6:29	Touchdown +7
8	BAL	BAL 42	9	45	2:29	Field goal +3
9	NYJ	NYJ 39	6	14	1:12	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 20	2	0	0:23	End of half
11	BAL	BAL 26	13	45	6:11	Touchdown +7
12	NYJ	NYJ 34	5	8	2:11	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	NYJ 42	8	25	3:05	Touchdown +7
14	NYJ	NYJ 40	10	46	3:52	Field goal +3
15	BAL	BAL 25	10	58	5:06	Field goal +3
16	NYJ	NYJ 33	5	74	2:44	Fumble
17	BAL	BAL 3	5	35	3:40	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 5	6	6	1:30	Turnover on downs
19	BAL	NYJ 11	4	7	1:00	Field goal +3
20	NYJ	NYJ 41	3	-2	0:36	Interception
21	BAL	BAL 13	1	0	0:05	End of game

7 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 79 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tyrod Taylor	17/28	222	1	1	3	0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Breece Hall	16	44	2.8	-8.3
Tyrod Taylor	5	19	3.8	1.1
Arian Smith	1	8	8.0	0.8
Isaiah Davis	4	7	1.8	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Breece Hall	4	4	75	0	15%	5.0
John Metchie III	6	7	65	1	26%	3.6
Adonai Mitchell	2	7	42	0	26%	2.2
Mason Taylor	3	5	21	0	19%	-2.5
Andrew Beck	1	1	10	0	4%	0.7
Allen Lazard	1	3	9	0	11%	-4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamien Sherwood	3	10	0.0	0
Harrison Phillips	1	7	0.0	1
Tony Adams	2	4	0.0	1
Quincy Williams	2	4	0.0	0
Malachi Moore	1	4	0.0	0
Jowon Briggs	2	3	1.0	0
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.	3	2	0.0	0
Brandon Stephens	2	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	2	1	0.0	0
Azareye'h Thomas	2	1	0.0	1

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	13/23	153	0	0	1	-0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	21	64	3.0	2	-1.7
Lamar Jackson	7	11	1.6	0	-1.9
Zay Flowers	2	11	5.5	0	0.2
Keaton Mitchell	2	10	5.0	0	0.6
Mark Andrews	2	2	1.0	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	5	6	58	30%	4.7
Devontez Walker	1	1	30	5%	1.9
Derrick Henry	2	2	24	10%	1.3
DeAndre Hopkins	2	3	13	15%	0.3
Isaiah Likely	1	3	10	15%	-2.1
Keaton Mitchell	1	1	9	5%	0.3
Mark Andrews	1	3	9	15%	-2.4
Tylan Wallace	0	1	0	5%	-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	6	5	0.0	0	0
Kyle Hamilton	6	4	0.0	0	0
Teddye Buchanan	5	3	0.0	0	0
Travis Jones	2	3	0.0	0	0
Mike Green	2	3	1.0	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	2	1.5	0	1
Malaki Starks	2	2	0.0	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	2	1	0.0	0	0
Nate Wiggins	2	0	0.0	0	0
T.J. Tampa	2	0	0.0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -14
Closing total: 44.5
NYJ moneyline: +675
BAL moneyline: -1050

Ravens closed -14, won by 13 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: NYJ 10 days · BAL 7 days
Coaches: Aaron Glenn vs John Harbaugh