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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
JetsNew York10
BY 13final margin
RavensBaltimore23
New York Jets 10 at Baltimore Ravens 23. Final.
Ravens -14 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 12
Baltimore Ravens 23, Jets 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 14:43, 3rd and 15, on Lamar Jackson — 9.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:43 · 3rd and 15
Lamar Jackson
Ravens
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Ravens closed -14, won by 13 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 23–10. Biggest swing: Q3 14:43, Ravens +9.9% win probability on one snap.
9.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
John Metchie IIIJetsQ2 4:09(4:09) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 3-J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.1pts
Tyrod TaylorRavensQ2 0:38(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor sacked at BAL 47 for -8 yards (41-D.Jones).
7.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 11 on third down, against Ravens at 2 of 11 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Jets151 of 162 plays carry both curves
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Swing +9.9 for RavensExpected points +4.18 for RavensThe model had Jets 29 points higher than the market did.play 84
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:43BAL +10% win prob(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
2nd · 4:09BAL +8% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 3-J.Metchie for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:38NYJ +8% win prob(:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor sacked at BAL 47 for -8 yards (41-D.Jones).
3rd · 3:35BAL +8% win prob(3:35) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:42NYJ +5% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 3-J.Metchie.
2nd · 2:13BAL +5% win prob(2:13) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 14 yards (27-M.Moore).
1st · 13:27
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:54 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th14:46Nick Folk·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+310–17
4th9:39Tyler Loop·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+310–20
4th0:45Tyler Loop·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+310–23
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categoryRavens
Jets5–4Ravens
282Total yards243
4.9Yards per play4.3
35%Success rate32%
36%Third-down rate18%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
2Explosive plays4
16First downs13
3Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Jets ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Jets: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.05Ravens: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Jets: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.07Ravens: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.56Jets: −0.56 expected points added per play
−0.03Ravens: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Ravens 5.
NoteJets outgained Ravens 282-243 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 16.1% in week 11 against 37.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens17.6%
right on their number · +3.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
NoteBAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 23.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Q3 14:43 · Ravens · 3rd & 15 at BAL 21 · gained nothing · +4.18 EP · +11.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 79 yards from the NYJ 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
38%
Yards
523
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2857%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2267%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR14+0.2636%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13-0.2854%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.2756%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.100%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Jets 47
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 18 to the Ravens 36
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Ravens 42
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 13
The period ended5 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Ravens 46
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Ravens 46 to the Ravens 44
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 24
Jets6Ravens0
Jets7Ravens0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jets 21 to the Ravens 13
Jets7Ravens3
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Jets 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 39 to the Ravens 39
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Jets7Ravens9
Jets7Ravens10
Touchdown15 plays, from the Ravens 26 to the Jets 2
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 42
Jets7Ravens16
Jets7Ravens17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 2
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.9 seconds
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Ravens 24
4th quarter45 plays
Jets10Ravens17
Field goal3 plays
Jets10Ravens20
Field goal10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Jets 17
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Ravens 12
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 3 to the Ravens 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 5 to the Jets 19
Jets10Ravens23
Field goal8 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Jets 4
Intercepted3 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
