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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q3 14:43, 3rd and 15, on Lamar Jackson — 9.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 23–10. Biggest swing: Q3 14:43, Ravens +9.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:43 · 3rd and 15
Lamar Jackson
Ravens
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
9.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.03 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Jets at 2 giveaways.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 4 of 11 on third down, against Ravens at 2 of 11 on third down.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 4 chunk plays, against Jets at 2 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 19.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Derrick Henry's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 8:54 left in the 3rd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Jetscategory by categoryRavens
Jets ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Ravens, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.56 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 57 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Jets 2, Ravens 5.
Jets outgained Ravens 282-243 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 16.1% in week 11 against 37.9% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · +1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Jets-9.4 ptsright on their number · −0.2 vs their -9.3 pts, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 57 snaps
Ravens-3.8 ptsright on their number · +4.7 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 86%
Tendencies room →Jets54.5%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 54.7%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 44 early downs
Ravens48.8%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →Jets26.5%leaned — faked the run · +8.6 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+1.44× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Ravens37.9%leaned — faked the run · +14.8 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.75× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28% to 113%
Fourth Down room →Jets—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 44.0%.
Ravens33.3%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 34.9%, and they swing ±24.0 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 57%
Tendencies room →Jets24.1%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens26.5%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Jets3.4%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Ravens17.6%right on their number · +3.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
BAL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 37.9%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 23.2% and 1.8 times their own 8.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · NYJ
17/28, 222 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
0.8 expected points added · -1.5% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
13/23, 153 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-0.1 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected
Receiving · NYJ
6/7 for 65 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
John Metchie III banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick HenryRB · Bell Cow Back | 22.8 | −0.9 | 56% | 38% | 10% | 2% | 21 car, 64 yd, 2 TD · 2/2, 24 yd |
| John Metchie IIIWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.5 | +8.8 | 86% | 91% | 26% | 12% | 6/7, 65 yd, 1 TD |
| Breece HallRB · Bell Cow Back | 13.9 | +1.5 | 71% | 65% | 15% | 0% | 16 car, 44 yd · 4/4, 75 yd |
| Tyrod TaylorQB · Starter QB | 12.8 | +0.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 222 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 19 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.9 | +0.1 | 84% | 97% | 30% | 24% | 2 car, 11 yd · 5/6, 58 yd |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 7.2 | −10.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/23, 153 yd · 7 car, 11 yd |
| Adonai MitchellWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −5.8 | 85% | 85% | 26% | 69% | 2/7, 42 yd |
| Mason TaylorTE · Featured Receiver | 5.1 | −1.8 | 88% | 94% | 19% | 10% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Devontez WalkerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.3 | 40% | 28% | 5% | 14% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | −2.6 | 54% | 69% | 15% | 14% | 2/3, 13 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB | 2.9 | +0.1 | 19% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 2 car, 10 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −6.3 | 67% | 76% | 15% | 11% | 2 car, 2 yd · 1/3, 9 yd |
| Isaiah LikelyTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | −2.4 | 57% | 59% | 15% | 20% | 1/3, 10 yd |
| Andrew BeckRB | 2.0 | +0.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Allen LazardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | −1.4 | 41% | 38% | 11% | 8% | 1/3, 9 yd |
| Arian SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.8 | +0.1 | 24% | 21% | 0% | — | 1 car, 8 yd |
| Isaiah DavisRB | 0.7 | −1.4 | 29% | 35% | 0% | — | 4 car, 7 yd |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 32% | 14% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Justice HillRB | 0.0 | — | 25% | 38% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 27% | 28% | 5% | 15% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Kene NwangwuRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Isaiah WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 41% | 0% | — | No touches. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Andrews. PENALTY on NYJ-26-I.Oliver, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards, enforced at BAL 21 - No Play.
Q3 14:43 · Ravens · 3rd & 15 at BAL 21 · gained nothing · +4.18 EP · +11.7% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 79 yards from the NYJ 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Jets6
Ravens0Jets7Ravens0Jets7Ravens3Jets7Ravens9Jets7Ravens10Jets7Ravens16Jets7Ravens17How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Jets10Ravens17Jets10Ravens20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Jets10Ravens23Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Jets at Ravens, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrod Taylor | 17/28 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 | −8.3 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | +1.1 |
| Arian Smith | 1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall | 4 | 4 | 75 | 0 | 15% | +5.0 |
| John Metchie III | 6 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamien Sherwood | 3 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Phillips | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tony Adams |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 13/23 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_NYJ_BAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -14, won by 13 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
| 8 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.8 |
| Isaiah Davis | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.1 |
| 26% |
| +3.6 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 2 | 7 | 42 | 0 | 26% | +2.2 |
| Mason Taylor | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 19% | −2.5 |
| Andrew Beck | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.7 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 11% | −4.0 |
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Quincy Williams | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarvis Brownlee Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jowon Briggs | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malachi Moore | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Stephens | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Azareye'h Thomas | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Isaiah Oliver | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 2 | −1.7 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 | −1.9 |
| Zay Flowers | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 5 | 6 | 58 | 0 | 30% | +4.7 |
| Devontez Walker | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +1.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 15% | +0.3 |
| Isaiah Likely | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 15% | −2.1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +0.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 15% | −2.4 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Travis Jones | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| Malaki Starks | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Tampa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
