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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:31 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q4 5:25, 4th and 13 — 31.0 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:25 · 4th and 13
Unnamed on the sheet
Cowboys
(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.
Dallas Cowboys 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:25, Cowboys +31.0% win probability on one snap.
31.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 2 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was inj
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon Aubrey's 42-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Brandon Aubrey42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.SiegLead never changed again+321–247 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Eaglescategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 58 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Cowboys 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −7.4 pts in week 11 against +10.5 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points.
PHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 42.3% in week 11 against 69.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: +6.7 pts in week 11 against −4.7 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Eagles10.5 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +12.9 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 58 snaps
Cowboys-4.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 65 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Eagles69.6%leaned — passed early · +16.7 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 46 early downs
Cowboys50.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Eagles14.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Cowboys35.9%leaned — faked the run · +8.4 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Eagles0.0%inside their normal wobble · −32.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 52.9%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 58%
Tendencies room →Eagles20.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.67× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Cowboys23.3%right on their number · −4.0 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Eagles15.4%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Cowboys14.0%right on their number · −2.5 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
PHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 10.5 pts, 12.9 points above their season mean of -2.4 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
23/36, 354 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
4.6 expected points added · +1.5% completion over expected
Passing · PHI
27/39, 289 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.2 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DAL
9/9 for 146 yds, 1 TD
26% of team targets · 11.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
George Pickens banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 30.9 | +3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 289 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 33 yd, 2 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.6 | +11.9 | 78% | 75% | 26% | 32% | 9/9, 146 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 27.1 | +0.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/36, 354 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +5.4 | 94% | 88% | 28% | 31% | 8/10, 110 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.9 | −6.3 | 95% | 93% | 31% | 58% | 6/11, 89 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −6.4 | 83% | 74% | 22% | 7% | 10 car, 22 yd · 7/8, 52 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 12.1 | −5.5 | 78% | 65% | 9% | 0% | 20 car, 87 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 11.5 | −11.7 | 85% | 80% | 31% | 44% | 4/11, 75 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.1 | −1.4 | 69% | 75% | 17% | 10% | 1 car, 1 yd · 5/6, 60 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.4 | +4.8 | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −0.5 | 47% | 48% | 6% | 3% | 2 car, 4 yd · 1/2, 48 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +0.8 | 92% | 86% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 20 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.7 | −0.1 | 21% | 14% | 6% | 0% | 2/2, 7 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 2.4 | +1.0 | 16% | 23% | 0% | — | 3 car, 24 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.2 | 24% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 1.7 | +0.1 | 20% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Xavier GipsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tank BigsbyRB | 0.8 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 45% | 45% | 3% | 6% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 31% | 28% | 3% | 7% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | 13% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 54% | 58% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:25) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to PHI 2, Center-44-T.Sieg. 87-X.Gipson to PHI 12 for 10 yards (38-A.Clark; 14-M.Bell). FUMBLES (38-A.Clark), touched at PHI 7, RECOVERED by DAL-44-T.Sieg at PHI 8. PHI-87-X.Gipson was injured during the play.
Q4 5:25 · Cowboys · 4th & 13 at DAL 40 · gained nothing · +6.10 EP · +29.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 183 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 178. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 89 yards from the DAL 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Eagles6
Cowboys0Eagles7Cowboys0Eagles13Cowboys0Eagles14Cowboys0Eagles20Cowboys0Eagles21Cowboys0Eagles21Cowboys6Eagles21Cowboys7Eagles21Cowboys13Eagles21Cowboys14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Eagles21Cowboys20Eagles21Cowboys21How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Eagles21Cowboys24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Eagles at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 27/39 | 289 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 2 | +2.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 10 | 22 | 2.2 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Tank Bigsby | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 8 | 10 | 110 | 1 | 28% | +8.4 |
| DeVonta Smith | 6 | 11 | 89 | 0 | 31% | +4.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Baun | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Blankenship | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper DeJean | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Davis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/36 | 354 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_PHI_DAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 45 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Saquon Barkley | 7 | 8 | 52 | 0 | 22% | −2.4 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 6% | +1.0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 6% | −1.0 |
| Xavier Gipson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Jahan Dotson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.7 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalyx Hunt | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinyon Mitchell | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 |
| 87 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 24 | 8.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 1 | −0.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | −5.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Pickens | 9 | 9 | 146 | 1 | 26% | +11.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 11 | 75 | 0 | 31% | −5.3 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 | 17% | +2.1 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 | 6% | +2.3 |
| Javonte Williams | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 9% | −3.6 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reddy Steward | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarvion Overshown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Osa Odighizuwa | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caelen Carson | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Murray, Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Donovan Ezeiruaku | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
