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Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q2 1:32, 4th and 1, on Kenny Gainwell — 21.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:32 · 4th and 1
Kenny Gainwell
Steelers
(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).
Chicago Bears 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 1:32, Steelers +21.6% win probability on one snap.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bears at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Bears at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.02 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
DJ Moore's 25-yard touchdown catch with 8:33 left in the 3rd put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
DJ Moore25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Caleb WilliamsLead never changed again+721–249 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Steelerscategory by categoryBears
Steelers ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 69 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, Bears 4.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PIT's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
PIT's pass rate over expected, −12.3 pts, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 1.5 points clear of the next team along.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.0 points.
PIT's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Steelers-12.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.7 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−1.67× that swing) · 69 snaps
Bears1.4 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.2 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (+1.27× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 31% to 78%
Tendencies room →Steelers44.2%leaned — ran early · −10.9 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.51× that swing) · 52 early downs
Bears62.2%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Steelers23.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Bears24.3%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 96%
Fourth Down room →Steelers66.7%leaned — went for it · +34.0 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+1.37× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Bears33.3%inside their normal wobble · −11.4 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±19.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 65%
Tendencies room →Steelers24.3%leaned — sat back · −13.6 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears20.6%inside their normal wobble · −9.3 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 35%
Tendencies room →Steelers2.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −13.2 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears11.8%right on their number · −1.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.15× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
PIT's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.7%, 13.2 points below their season mean of 15.9% and 1.8 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
19/35, 239 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
0.5 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
24/31, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.8 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DJ Moore banked 8.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 23.4 | +8.8 | 77% | 76% | 23% | 22% | 5/7, 64 yd, 2 TD |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 21.7 | +4.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/35, 239 yd, 3 TD · 4 car, 21 yd |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Committee Back | 18.2 | +2.8 | 51% | 68% | 19% | 0% | 10 car, 92 yd · 6/6, 30 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.9 | +6.2 | 65% | 68% | 17% | 12% | 4/5, 49 yd, 1 TD |
| DK MetcalfWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +0.4 | 85% | 82% | 26% | 25% | 2 car, 12 yd, 1 TD · 5/8, 22 yd |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 12.8 | +1.0 | 50% | 29% | 0% | — | 18 car, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Pat FreiermuthTE · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +4.5 | 47% | 62% | 10% | 5% | 3/3, 19 yd, 1 TD |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Committee Back | 10.8 | +1.9 | 54% | 50% | 0% | — | 12 car, 48 yd, 1 TD |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.1 | +0.5 | 51% | 55% | 17% | 12% | 1 car, 15 yd · 3/5, 46 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.3 | −7.4 | 78% | 82% | 30% | 36% | 3/9, 53 yd |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +0.8 | 46% | 59% | 16% | 13% | 4/5, 36 yd |
| Mason RudolphQB · Starter QB | 7.5 | −5.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 171 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 7 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −0.8 | 49% | 68% | 10% | 3% | 2 car, 7 yd · 3/3, 21 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +1.1 | 68% | 56% | 6% | 4% | 2/2, 22 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.7 | 36% | 12% | 3% | 9% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| D'Andre SwiftRB | 1.9 | −5.6 | 45% | 42% | 3% | 0% | 8 car, 15 yd · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | 0.0 | 35% | 24% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 6 yd |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.3 | 29% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −0.2 | 63% | 53% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 3 yd |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Nikola KalinicTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Connor HeywardTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −0.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −5.9 | 28% | 32% | 10% | 45% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:04) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at CHI 45 for -8 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], touched at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-98-M.Sweat at CHI 46. ** Injury Update: PIT-4-D.Metcalf has returned to the game.
Q3 4:04 · Steelers · 2nd & 12 at CHI 37 · lost 8 · -5.32 EP · −19.5% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 95 yards from the PIT 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Steelers0
Bears6Steelers0Bears7Steelers6Bears7Steelers7Bears7How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket, the sack was on the quarterback.
Steelers13Bears7Steelers14Bears7How the play was built
A man in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Steelers14Bears13Steelers14Bears14How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Steelers20Bears14Steelers21Bears14Steelers21Bears17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Steelers21Bears23Steelers21Bears24How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Steelers21Bears30Steelers21Bears31Steelers27Bears31Steelers28Bears31How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Steelers at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 24/31 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 10 | 92 | 9.2 | 0 | +6.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 18 | 68 | 3.8 | 1 | +0.5 |
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Austin III | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +1.9 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 19% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Ramsey | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick Queen | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/35 | 239 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_PIT_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 59 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Mason Rudolph | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| DK Metcalf | 5 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 26% | −4.6 |
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +1.5 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 10% | +0.9 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 3% | +1.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −2.3 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Harmon | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandin Echols | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Sawyer | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
| 48 |
| 4.0 |
| 1 |
| +3.1 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 8 | 15 | 1.9 | 0 | −7.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 64 | 2 | 23% | +2.9 |
| Rome Odunze | 3 | 9 | 53 | 0 | 30% | +0.4 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 49 | 1 | 17% | +2.8 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 17% | +2.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 3% | +0.9 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Marco Jackson | 5 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | 2 | 12 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick McCloud | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Tyrique Stevenson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
