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2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · Soldier Field

Pittsburgh Steelers

28

Chicago BearsWinner

31

CHI -3 pushO 46.5 ✓

Chicago Bears 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 1:32, CHI +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3CHI ↑PIT ↓
Q2 · 1:32PIT 14 — CHI 14PIT ball · 4th & 1CHI 53%

(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 1:32CHI +22% win prob(1:32) Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. Direct snap to 83-Co.Heyward. 14-K.Gainwell right end pushed ob at CHI 1 for 55 yards (31-K.Byard).
  2. Q2 · 14:54PIT +15% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-51-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 4:04PIT +15% win prob(4:04) 2-M.Rudolph sacked at CHI 45 for -8 yards (98-M.Sweat). FUMBLES (98-M.Sweat) [98-M.Sweat], touched at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-98-M.Sweat at CHI 46. ** Injury Update: PIT-4-D.Metcalf has returned to the game.
  4. Q3 · 8:33CHI +13% win prob(8:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-33-J.Sawyer, Defensive Offside, declined.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:32CHI Touchdown

    (8:32) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 2-D.Moore for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — CHI 7
  2. Q1 · 0:35PIT Touchdown

    (:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Metcalf left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — CHI 7
  3. Q2 · 14:54PIT Touchdown

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt) [90-T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-51-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 14 — CHI 7
  4. Q2 · 4:00CHI Touchdown

    (4:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 14 — CHI 14
  5. Q2 · 1:23PIT Touchdown

    (1:23) 30-J.Warren right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI-94-A.Booker, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 21 — CHI 14
  6. Q2 · 0:03CHI Field goal

    (:03) 8-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: PIT 21 — CHI 17
  7. Q3 · 8:33CHI Touchdown

    (8:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-33-J.Sawyer, Defensive Offside, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 21 — CHI 24
  8. Q4 · 14:16CHI Touchdown

    (14:16) (Shotgun) 25-K.Monangai up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 21 — CHI 31
  9. Q4 · 6:32PIT Touchdown

    (6:32) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 28 — CHI 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersBears
Offensive plays6959
Total yards345 (edge)329
Yards per play5.05.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.000.01 (edge)
Success rate52% (edge)42%
Dropback rate49%63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.170.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.17 (edge)-0.02
Third downs8/14 (edge)7/13
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)35 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)18
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers22

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

19/35, 239 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

0.5 expected points added · -3.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Mason RudolphQB

24/31, 171 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.8 expected points added · +8.9% completion over expected

Rushing · PIT

Kenneth GainwellRB

10 att, 92 yds, 0 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Jaylen WarrenRB

18 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

DJ MooreWR

5/7 for 64 yds, 2 TD

23% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Rome OdunzeWR

3/9 for 53 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 29541:41Punt
2PITPIT 21290:44Interception
3CHICHI 449504:07Touchdown +7
4PITPIT 515957:58Touchdown +7
5CHICHI 203-100:46Defensive touchdown
6CHICHI 266262:57Fumble
7PITPIT 485223:01Turnover on downs
8CHICHI 3012704:50Touchdown +7
9PITPIT 209852:37Touchdown +7
10CHICHI 3610351:19Field goal +3
11PITPIT 258113:44Punt
12CHICHI 406752:47Touchdown +7
13PITPIT 27572:06Punt
14CHICHI 27491:15Punt
15PITPIT 343-61:16Fumble
16CHICHI 4610544:38Touchdown +7
17PITPIT 2719727:47Touchdown +7
18CHICHI 325131:50Punt
19PITPIT 117172:44Punt
20CHICHI 44430:24Punt
21PITPIT 207331:12Turnover on downs
22CHICHI 48100:17End of game

8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 95 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mason Rudolph24/31171112-5.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Gainwell10929.206.1
Jaylen Warren18683.810.5
DK Metcalf2126.011.7
Mason Rudolph372.301.3
Jonnu Smith273.50-0.1
Connor Heyward100.00-3.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Calvin Austin III4536016%1.9
Kenneth Gainwell6630019%-0.2
DK Metcalf5822026%-4.6
Darnell Washington222206%1.5
Jonnu Smith3321010%0.9
Ben Skowronek112103%1.4
Pat Freiermuth3319110%2.2
Roman Wilson030010%-2.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jalen Ramsey360.000
Kyle Dugger240.001
Patrick Queen140.000
Payton Wilson410.000
T.J. Watt231.000
Keeanu Benton220.000
Derrick Harmon220.000
Cameron Heyward210.000
Malik Harrison120.000
Brandin Echols210.000

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams19/352393010.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kyle Monangai12484.013.1
Caleb Williams4215.303.0
Luther Burden III11515.001.2
D'Andre Swift8151.90-7.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DJ Moore5764223%2.9
Rome Odunze3953030%0.4
Colston Loveland4549117%2.8
Luther Burden III3546017%2.2
D'Andre Swift111403%0.9
Olamide Zaccheaus11603%0.0
Durham Smythe11403%-0.3
Cole Kmet11303%-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
D'Marco Jackson5100.000
Amen Ogbongbemiga2120.000
Nick McCloud250.000
Jaquan Brisker430.001
Nahshon Wright330.012
Kevin Byard320.000
Tyrique Stevenson410.000
Grady Jarrett120.001
Gervon Dexter Sr.120.000
Elijah Hicks210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CHI -3
Closing total
46.5
PIT moneyline
+130
CHI moneyline
-155

Bears closed -3 and it landed exactly on the number — a push.

Total closed 46.5; the game landed 59 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
PIT 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Ben Johnson