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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Seahawks158 of 168 plays carry both curves
(11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −7.6 for TitansExpected points −6.38 for TitansThe model had Titans 35 points higher than the market did.play 43
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 11:11TEN +8% win prob(11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 6:54SEA +6% win prob(6:54) 1-C.Ward sacked at SEA 4 for -1 yards (52-P.O'Connell).
2nd · 12:55SEA +5% win prob(12:55) 3-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 22-R.Shaheed to SEA 33 for 20 yards (36-J.Chestnut).
1st · 1:08TEN +4% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short right to 17-C.Dike pushed ob at TEN 35 for 25 yards (29-J.Jobe; 8-C.Bryant).
1st · 4:31TEN +4% win prob(4:31) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 88-A.Barner to TEN 34 for 13 yards (50-C.Barton; 33-C.Gray).
1st · 12:09TEN +4% win prob(12:09) 1-C.Ward pass short left to 84-G.Helm to SEA 32 for 10 yards (3-N.Emmanwori).
1st · 8:57
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 63-yard touchdown catch with 11:11 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:53Joey Slye·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap M.Cox+30–3
1st2:18Jason Myers·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–3
2nd11:11Jaxon Smith-Njigba·63-yd TD catch63-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam DarnoldLead never changed again+710–3
2nd4:48Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–3
2nd0:04Jason Myers·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+316–3
3rd13:23Jaxon Smith-Njigba·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+723–3
3rd10:44Chimere Dike·90-yd return TD90-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+723–10
Seahawks ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Seahawks: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.01Titans: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.35Seahawks: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.11Titans: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.33Titans: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 46 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Titans’s 68 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 5, Titans 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 83.3%, was the highest of the 22 team-games charted in week 12 — 8.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 50.0% in week 8.
6 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.7 points.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 20.0% in week 11 against 37.0% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 10 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Titans11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −4.8 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
NoteTEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 83.3%, 48.1 points above their season mean of 35.2% and 1.7 times their own 27.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72Abraham LucasT · Every snap100%48 snaps
75Anthony BradfordG · Every snap100%48 snaps
67Charles CrossT · Every snap100%48 snaps
76Grey ZabelG · Every snap100%48 snaps
55Olu OluwatimiC · Every snap100%48 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
88AJ BarnerTE · Heavy rotation79%38 snaps
11Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Heavy rotation79%38 snaps
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+20% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(11:11) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 11:11 · Seahawks · 3rd & 6 at SEA 37 · gained 63 · +6.38 EP · +20.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 76 yards from the SEA 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
649
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1778%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.3570%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0260%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.4750%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4660%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Seahawks0Titans3
Field goal17 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Seahawks 3
Seahawks3Titans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Titans 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 3 to the Titans 35
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 38
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Seahawks9Titans3
Seahawks10Titans3
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Seahawks 42
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 18
Seahawks13Titans3
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Seahawks 40
Seahawks16Titans3
Field goal13 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Titans 12
3rd quarter43 plays
Seahawks22Titans3
Seahawks23Titans3
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 24 to the Titans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Titans 29
Seahawks23Titans9
Touchdown4 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 30
Seahawks23Titans10
Seahawks29Titans10
Seahawks30Titans10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 26 to the Titans 5
Seahawks30Titans16
Seahawks30Titans17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Titans 27 to the Seahawks 6
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 37
4th quarter43 plays
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Titans 41
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Titans 46 to the Seahawks 21
Punt5 plays
Seahawks30Titans23
Seahawks30Titans24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Seahawks 1
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
