2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · SoFi Stadium

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles RamsWinner

LA -7 ✓U 49.5 ✓DomeRams closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.

Los Angeles Rams 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:54, TB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:54TB 0 — LA 13TB ball · 2nd & 13LA 87%

(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:54TB +8% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 7:47LA +6% win prob(7:47) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at TB 26 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield; 25-J.Parrish).
Q1 · 9:08LA +5% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 13 yards (23-T.Smith).
Q1 · 5:54LA +4% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at TB 16 for 18 yards.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:35LA Touchdown
(4:35) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — LA 7
Q1 · 1:54LA Touchdown
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — LA 14
Q2 · 10:50LA Touchdown
(10:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 84-C.Parkinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 0 — LA 21
Q2 · 5:08TB Touchdown
(5:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 15-T.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — LA 21
Q2 · 3:15LA Touchdown
(3:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: TB 7 — LA 28
Q2 · 1:06LA Field goal
(1:06) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: TB 7 — LA 31
Q4 · 13:40LA Field goal
(13:40) 92-H.Mevis 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
Score after this play: TB 7 — LA 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Rams
Offensive plays	67	55
Total yards	193	333 (edge)
Yards per play	2.9	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.43	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	31%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	63%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.66	0.23 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.16
Third downs	7/17 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	20 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Matthew StaffordQB

25/35, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

8.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Teddy BridgewaterQB

8/15, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-12.5 expected points added · -16.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Kyren WilliamsRB

12 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-1.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Sean TuckerRB

12 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Puka NacuaWR

7/11 for 97 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Davante AdamsWR

5/8 for 62 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 28	11	29	4:50	Punt
2	LA	LA 20	11	80	5:38	Touchdown +7
3	TB	TB 35	6	8	2:50	Defensive touchdown
4	TB	TB 35	5	-9	0:54	Punt
5	LA	LA 28	13	72	5:02	Touchdown +7
6	TB	TB 35	12	65	5:43	Touchdown +7
7	LA	LA 35	6	65	1:53	Touchdown +7
8	TB	TB 20	5	8	1:31	Turnover on downs
9	LA	TB 28	4	7	0:37	Field goal +3
10	TB	TB 35	8	8	1:02	Interception
11	LA	LA 40	7	20	2:03	Turnover on downs
12	TB	LA 48	11	21	5:09	Turnover on downs
13	LA	LA 27	6	25	3:21	Punt
14	TB	TB 8	4	9	2:13	Punt
15	LA	LA 36	8	40	3:39	Field goal +3
16	TB	TB 35	10	45	4:03	Turnover on downs
17	LA	LA 25	4	9	2:20	Punt
18	TB	LA 48	4	3	1:46	Punt
19	LA	LA 20	6	15	3:39	Punt
20	TB	TB 29	3	6	1:47	End of game

6 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	8/15	62	0	0	2	-12.5
Baker Mayfield	9/19	41	1	2	2	-18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Sean Tucker	12	42	3.5	-0.2
Rachaad White	7	38	5.4	0.2
Baker Mayfield	4	19	4.8	2.2
Tez Johnson	2	12	6.0	0.8
Teddy Bridgewater	1	6	6.0	-0.0
Owen Wright	3	6	2.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Emeka Egbuka	3	8	32	0	26%	-1.9
Tez Johnson	3	4	21	1	13%	1.0
Cade Otton	4	7	21	0	23%	-8.2
Sterling Shepard	3	5	12	0	16%	-5.6
Chris Godwin Jr.	2	4	9	0	13%	-1.3
Sean Tucker	1	2	4	0	6%	-0.9
Rachaad White	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Lavonte David	4	4	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.	3	5	0.0	0
SirVocea Dennis	3	4	0.0	0
Jacob Parrish	4	2	0.0	0
Tykee Smith	4	2	0.0	1
Zyon McCollum	3	1	0.0	1
Kindle Vildor	2	2	0.0	1
Anthony Nelson	2	1	0.0	0
Yaya Diaby	2	0	1.0	0
Greg Gaines	2	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	25/35	273	3	0	1	8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kyren Williams	12	46	3.8	0	-1.4
Blake Corum	7	24	3.4	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Puka Nacua	7	11	97	0	32%	3.3
Davante Adams	5	8	62	2	24%	4.4
Colby Parkinson	4	4	41	1	12%	5.6
Davis Allen	3	4	29	0	12%	0.3
Konata Mumpfield	2	2	25	0	6%	2.4
Jordan Whittington	3	3	17	0	9%	-0.2
Kyren Williams	1	1	2	0	3%	-0.6
Terrance Ferguson	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kam Curl	6	2	0.0	0	0
Kobie Turner	4	3	2.0	0	0
Nate Landman	4	3	0.0	0	0
Kamren Kinchens	5	2	0.0	0	1
Jared Verse	3	1	2.0	0	0
Jaylen McCollough	2	2	0.0	0	1
Darious Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Cobie Durant	2	0	0.0	1	2
Josh Wallace	2	0	0.0	0	1
Braden Fiske	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -7
Closing total: 49.5
TB moneyline: +295
LA moneyline: -375

Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 41 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: TB 7 days · LA 7 days
Coaches: Todd Bowles vs Sean McVay