For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Buccaneers151 of 159 plays carry both curves
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +7.9 for RamsExpected points +8.67 for RamsThe model had Buccaneers 12 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 1:54TB +8% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 7:47LA +6% win prob(7:47) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at TB 26 for 31 yards (31-A.Winfield; 25-J.Parrish).
1st · 9:08LA +5% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-D.Adams to LA 36 for 13 yards (23-T.Smith).
1st · 5:54LA +4% win prob(5:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua ran ob at TB 16 for 18 yards.
1st · 9:46TB +3% win prob(9:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 23-K.Williams to LA 23 for 2 yards (54-L.David).
1st · 11:48LA +3% win prob(11:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 44-S.Tucker left guard to LA 44 for 7 yards (48-O.Speights; 3-K.Curl).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 1-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:35Davante Adams·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–7
2nd3:15Davante Adams·24-yd TD catch24-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+77–28
2nd1:06Harrison Mevis·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaide+37–31
4th13:40Harrison Mevis·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder E.Evans · snap J.McQuaide+37–34
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRams
Buccaneers1–8Rams
193Total yards333
2.9Yards per play6.1
31%Success rate55%
41%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays4
12First downs20
4Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.43Buccaneers: −0.43 expected points added per play
+0.10Rams: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.66Buccaneers: −0.66 expected points added per play
+0.23Rams: +0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Buccaneers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.16Rams: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Rams 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TB's play-action rate, 7.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams14.3%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteLA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.9 pts, 9.7 points above their season mean of 3.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:54 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 13 at TB 43 · gained nothing · -8.67 EP · −11.8% win probability
149 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
45%
Yards
526
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.4860%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.0969%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.2670%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.240%
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.1133%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Rams 43
Buccaneers0Rams6
Buccaneers0Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Buccaneers 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Buccaneers0Rams13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Buccaneers 46
Buccaneers0Rams14
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 34
2nd quarter52 plays
Buccaneers0Rams20
Buccaneers0Rams21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Buccaneers 5
Buccaneers6Rams21
Buccaneers7Rams21
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Rams 14
Buccaneers7Rams27
Buccaneers7Rams28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Buccaneers 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 28
Buccaneers7Rams31
Field goal4 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 21
The period ended12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Rams 49
3rd quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Buccaneers 40
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Rams 18
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Buccaneers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 36 to the Buccaneers 49
4th quarter35 plays
Buccaneers7Rams34
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Buccaneers 34
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Buccaneers 35 to the Rams 13
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 48 to the Rams 45
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 35
The period ended4 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
