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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 23, 2025 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 12
It turned at Q1 1:54, 2nd and 13, on Cobie Durant — 7.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 34–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 1:54, Rams +7.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 1:54 · 2nd and 13
Cobie Durant
Rams
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.23 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.66 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Rams won this one — no giveaways, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Davante Adams's 1-yard touchdown catch with 4:35 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Davante Adams1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew StaffordLead never changed again+70–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Buccaneerscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 67 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Rams’s 55 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Rams 3.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
TB's play-action rate, 7.1%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 12 — 3.8 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Buccaneers-8.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.1 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.59× that swing) · 67 snaps
Rams12.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.7 vs their 3.2 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+1.67× that swing) · 55 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 87%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers53.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 45 early downs
Rams61.4%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 44 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 61%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers7.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −9.9 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.20× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Rams33.3%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Buccaneers66.7%inside their normal wobble · +21.6 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (+0.82× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Rams33.3%inside their normal wobble · −16.0 vs their 49.3%, and they swing ±19.3 week to week (−0.83× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 62%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers36.1%right on their number · −1.5 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams35.7%inside their normal wobble · +10.8 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (+0.95× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 41%
Tendencies room →Buccaneers8.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Rams14.3%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
LA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.9 pts, 9.7 points above their season mean of 3.2 pts and 1.7 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
25/35, 273 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
8.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
Passing · TB
8/15, 62 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-12.5 expected points added · -16.3% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tez Johnson banked 2.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.3 | +2.7 | 86% | 83% | 13% | 12% | 2 car, 12 yd · 3/4, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.2 | −9.7 | 90% | 98% | 26% | 45% | 3/8, 32 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Featured Receiver | 6.1 | −4.0 | 86% | 90% | 23% | 12% | 4/7, 21 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB · Committee Back | 5.6 | −2.2 | 37% | 31% | 6% | 2% | 12 car, 42 yd · 1/2, 4 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 5.2 | +0.7 | 60% | 71% | 3% | 0% | 7 car, 38 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −4.3 | 59% | 62% | 16% | 10% | 3/5, 12 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 3.5 | −7.0 | 56% | — | 0% | — | 9/19, 41 yd, 1 TD, 2 INT · 4 car, 19 yd |
| Teddy BridgewaterQB · Starter QB | 3.1 | −3.8 | 44% | — | 0% | — | 8/15, 62 yd · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −3.1 | 36% | 43% | 13% | 21% | 2/4, 9 yd |
| Owen WrightRB | 0.6 | −1.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 11% | 5% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 14-C.Durant at 50. 14-C.Durant for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 1:54 · Buccaneers · 2nd & 13 at TB 43 · gained nothing · -8.67 EP · −11.8% win probability
149 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 159 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 154. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 80 yards from the LA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Buccaneers0
Rams6Buccaneers0Rams7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
Buccaneers0Rams13Buccaneers0Rams14Buccaneers0Rams20Buccaneers0Rams21Buccaneers6Rams21Buccaneers7Rams21Buccaneers7Rams27Buccaneers7Rams28Buccaneers7Rams31Buccaneers7Rams34Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Buccaneers at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 8/15 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −12.5 |
| Baker Mayfield | 9/19 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 2 | −18.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Tucker | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Rachaad White | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emeka Egbuka | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 26% | −1.9 |
| Tez Johnson | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 13% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/35 | 273 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_12_TB_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -7 and covered, winning by 27.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 41 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Tez Johnson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Owen Wright | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| +1.0 |
| Cade Otton | 4 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 23% | −8.2 |
| Sterling Shepard | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 16% | −5.6 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −1.3 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.9 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jacob Parrish | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kindle Vildor | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Zyon McCollum | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yaya Diaby | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Blake Corum | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puka Nacua | 7 | 11 | 97 | 0 | 32% | +3.3 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 8 | 62 | 2 | 24% | +4.4 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 4 | 41 | 1 | 12% | +5.6 |
| Davis Allen | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 12% | +0.3 |
| Konata Mumpfield | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 6% | +2.4 |
| Jordan Whittington | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 9% | −0.2 |
| Kyren Williams | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3% | −0.6 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kam Curl | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner | 4 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Landman | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jared Verse | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darious Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Young | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braden Fiske | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Wallace | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
