2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -4.5 no coverU 44.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 3:47, ARI +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:47ARI 0 — TB 0ARI ball · 2nd & 4ARI 51%

(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:47ARI +12% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).
Q3 · 14:07ARI +10% win prob(14:07) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Knight up the middle to TB 43 for 2 yards (90-L.Hall). FUMBLES (90-L.Hall), RECOVERED by TB-23-T.Smith at TB 40.
Q4 · 0:55ARI +9% win prob(:55) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short middle to 14-M.Wilson (8-S.Dennis).
Q4 · 5:02TB +8% win prob(5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 8:04TB Field goal
(8:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: ARI 0 — TB 3
Q2 · 1:39TB Touchdown
(1:39) 78-T.Wirfs reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 78-T.Wirfs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 0 — TB 10
Q2 · 0:02ARI Field goal
(:02) 38-C.Ryland 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-39-M.Haack.
Score after this play: ARI 3 — TB 10
Q3 · 4:01TB Touchdown
(4:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Irving left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 3 — TB 17
Q3 · 0:38ARI Touchdown
(:38) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 20-Z.Knight for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 10 — TB 17
Q4 · 9:03TB Field goal
(9:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: ARI 10 — TB 20
Q4 · 5:02ARI Touchdown
(5:02) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: ARI 17 — TB 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	60	54
Total yards	386 (edge)	283
Yards per play	6.4 (edge)	5.2
Expected points added / play	-0.03	0.06 (edge)
Success rate	60% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	73%	61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11 (edge)	0.10
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	3/8	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Cardinals outgained Buccaneers 386–283 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

29/40, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.8 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

18/28, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Bam KnightRB

11 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

17 att, 61 yds, 1 TD

1.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

8/9 for 82 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Chris Godwin Jr.WR

3/5 for 78 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 27	8	36	4:30	Punt
2	ARI	ARI 7	11	73	6:51	Interception
3	TB	TB 14	7	13	3:49	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 23	4	7	1:35	Punt
5	TB	TB 30	10	58	5:13	Field goal +3
6	ARI	ARI 31	5	-10	1:52	Punt
7	TB	50	11	70	4:34	Touchdown +7
8	ARI	ARI 23	9	56	1:36	Field goal +3
9	ARI	ARI 42	3	15	0:57	Fumble
10	TB	TB 40	4	-2	1:14	Punt
11	ARI	ARI 10	10	65	5:03	Missed field goal
12	TB	TB 33	8	67	3:50	Touchdown +7
13	ARI	ARI 28	8	72	3:25	Touchdown +7
14	TB	TB 20	6	25	1:34	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 12	7	27	3:18	Turnover on downs
16	TB	ARI 39	4	0	1:41	Field goal +3
17	ARI	ARI 27	11	73	4:00	Touchdown +7
18	TB	TB 21	8	16	3:09	Punt
19	ARI	ARI 9	4	8	0:57	Turnover on downs
20	TB	ARI 16	3	0	0:52	End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 73 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a interception.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jacoby Brissett	29/40	301	2	1	2	5.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Bam Knight	11	62	5.6	-6.1
Michael Carter	5	17	3.4	-0.5
Jacoby Brissett	3	16	5.3	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Trey McBride	8	9	82	1	24%	6.2
Marvin Harrison Jr.	6	7	69	0	19%	3.6
Michael Carter	5	6	47	0	16%	2.1
Bam Knight	3	3	36	1	8%	4.1
Michael Wilson	3	7	36	0	19%	-8.4
Elijah Higgins	2	2	17	0	5%	0.9
Greg Dortch	2	2	14	0	5%	1.2
Xavier Weaver	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Akeem Davis-Gaither	4	6	0.0	0
Cody Simon	4	5	0.0	0
Budda Baker	2	6	0.0	1
Kitan Crawford	3	2	0.0	0
Darius Robinson	1	3	0.0	0
Baron Browning	2	2	0.0	0
Josh Sweat	3	1	2.0	0
Garrett Williams	3	1	0.0	0
Channing Tindall	1	1	0.0	0
Will Johnson	1	1	0.0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	18/28	194	1	0	2	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bucky Irving	17	61	3.6	1	1.2
Baker Mayfield	6	27	4.5	0	-2.6
Rachaad White	2	7	3.5	0	-0.1
Sean Tucker	2	0	0.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chris Godwin Jr.	3	5	78	0	19%	4.7
Emeka Egbuka	4	8	42	0	31%	-2.0
Rachaad White	3	3	22	0	12%	0.1
Bucky Irving	2	2	20	0	8%	0.6
Payne Durham	1	1	11	0	4%	0.6
Cade Otton	2	2	9	0	8%	-0.1
Sterling Shepard	1	2	5	0	8%	0.5
Tez Johnson	1	2	5	0	8%	-0.5
Tristan Wirfs	1	1	2	1	4%	3.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
SirVocea Dennis	8	3	0	1
Jacob Parrish	5	2	0	0
Antoine Winfield Jr.	4	3	1	1
Zyon McCollum	4	2	0	0
Lavonte David	4	2	0	0
Logan Hall	2	2	0	0
Anthony Nelson	2	2	0	0
Greg Gaines	1	2	0	0
Jamel Dean	1	2	0	1
Haason Reddick	1	1	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -4.5
Closing total: 44.5
ARI moneyline: +164
TB moneyline: -198

Buccaneers closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 80°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: ARI 7 days · TB 7 days
Coaches: Jonathan Gannon vs Todd Bowles