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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:21 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q1 3:47, 2nd and 4, on Antoine Winfield Jr. — 12.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 3:47, Buccaneers +12.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:47 · 2nd and 4
Antoine Winfield Jr.
Buccaneers
(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).
12.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Buccaneers at 44% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 2 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Chase McLaughlin's 25-yard field goal with 8:04 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Chase McLaughlin25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap E.DeckersLead never changed again+30–37 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Cardinalscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Cardinals ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 60 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Buccaneers 4.
Cardinals outgained Buccaneers 386-283 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
ARI's blitz rate sent, 42.4%, is past their previous high of 40.0% in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
TB's play-action rate turned over: 7.1% in week 12 against 30.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Cardinals9.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 3.7 pts, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 60 snaps
Buccaneers-1.1 ptsright on their number · +2.2 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 54 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 93%
Tendencies room →Cardinals70.0%right on their number · +3.5 vs their 66.5%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 50 early downs
Buccaneers52.6%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 53%
Tendencies room →Cardinals31.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.5 vs their 25.3%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Buccaneers30.3%leaned — faked the run · +13.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.60× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Cardinals50.0%right on their number · −0.0 vs their 50.0%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.00× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers33.3%right on their number · −11.7 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 62%
Tendencies room →Cardinals42.4%leaned — sent pressure · +17.9 vs their 24.5%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Buccaneers38.6%right on their number · +1.0 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Cardinals6.1%leaned — stayed blocked · −5.3 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Buccaneers15.9%right on their number · +2.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
ARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.4%, 17.9 points above their season mean of 24.5% and 1.9 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · ARI
29/40, 301 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
5.8 expected points added · +11.1% completion over expected
Passing · TB
18/28, 194 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
1.8 expected points added · -0.6% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Trey McBride banked 5.6 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBrideTE · Featured Receiver | 22.2 | +5.6 | 89% | 91% | 24% | 34% | 8/9, 82 yd, 1 TD |
| Jacoby BrissettQB · Starter QB | 19.6 | +0.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 29/40, 301 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 16 yd |
| Bam KnightRB · Committee Back | 16.8 | +5.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Bell Cow Back | 16.1 | +4.2 | 52% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 17 car, 61 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 20 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 14.5 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/28, 194 yd, 1 TD · 6 car, 27 yd |
| Marvin Harrison Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 12.9 | +1.3 | 61% | 62% | 19% | 30% | 6/7, 69 yd |
| Michael CarterRB · Receiving Back | 11.4 | +0.9 | 52% | 58% | 16% | 0% | 5 car, 17 yd · 5/6, 47 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Featured Receiver | 10.8 | −0.5 | 66% | 67% | 19% | 23% | 3/5, 78 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.2 | −6.0 | 85% | 97% | 31% | 44% | 4/8, 42 yd |
| Michael WilsonWR · Featured Receiver | 6.6 | −6.1 | 93% | 93% | 19% | 32% | 3/7, 36 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB · Receiving Back | 5.9 | −0.3 | 38% | 52% | 12% | 0% | 2 car, 7 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Elijah HigginsTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.1 | 41% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Greg DortchWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | +1.0 | 33% | 31% | 5% | 0% | 2/2, 14 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.2 | 97% | 97% | 8% | 3% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.7 | 43% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 11 yd |
| Tez JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −2.1 | 57% | 55% | 8% | 16% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −3.4 | 26% | 42% | 8% | 26% | 1/2, 5 yd |
| Andre BaccelliaWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Xavier WeaverWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 49% | 47% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 0.0 | −0.8 | 15% | 9% | 0% | — | 2 car, 0 yd |
| Devin CulpTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ryan MillerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:47) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle intended for 14-M.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 31-A.Winfield (35-J.Dean) at TB 9. 31-A.Winfield to TB 14 for 5 yards (20-Z.Knight; 4-G.Dortch).
Q1 3:47 · Cardinals · 2nd & 4 at TB 20 · gained nothing · -4.87 EP · −14.9% win probability
149 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 73 yards from the ARI 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Cardinals0
Buccaneers3Cardinals0Buccaneers9Cardinals0Buccaneers10Cardinals3Buccaneers10How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Cardinals3Buccaneers16Cardinals3Buccaneers17Cardinals9Buccaneers17Cardinals10Buccaneers17Cardinals10Buccaneers20Cardinals16Buccaneers20Cardinals17Buccaneers20Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Cardinals at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 29/40 | 301 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +5.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 11 | 62 | 5.6 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 8 | 9 | 82 | 1 | 24% | +6.2 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 6 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeem Davis-Gaither | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Simon | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Budda Baker |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 18/28 | 194 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_ARI_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -4.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 37 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| 19% |
| +3.6 |
| Michael Carter | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 | 16% | +2.1 |
| Bam Knight | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 8% | +4.1 |
| Michael Wilson | 3 | 7 | 36 | 0 | 19% | −8.4 |
| Elijah Higgins | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 5% | +0.9 |
| Greg Dortch | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +1.2 |
| Xavier Weaver | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Kitan Crawford | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Baron Browning | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Williams | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darius Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Sweat | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Channing Tindall | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Stills | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Rachaad White | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Sean Tucker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 78 | 0 | 19% | +4.7 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 | 31% | −2.0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 | 8% | +0.6 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Cade Otton | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 8% | −0.1 |
| Tez Johnson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | −0.5 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 8% | +0.5 |
| Tristan Wirfs | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | +3.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SirVocea Dennis | 8 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jacob Parrish | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lavonte David | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Hall | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Nelson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vita Vea | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
