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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
New York Jets 27, Falcons 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:05, 3rd and 15, on Nick Folk — 28.8 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Jets 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:05, Jets +28.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:05 · 3rd and 15
Nick Folk
Jets
(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
28.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adonai MitchellJetsQ3 9:05(9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetJetsQ4 0:44(:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (49-L.McCullough; 40-J.Bertrand).
17.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 3 chunk plays.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.05 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 45% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Falcons175 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Swing +28.8 for JetsExpected points +1.47 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:05NYJ +29% win prob(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
4th · 0:44ATL +18% win prob(:44) 13-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-L.McCullough. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 43 for 16 yards (49-L.McCullough; 40-J.Bertrand).
3rd · 9:05NYJ +17% win prob(9:05) 2-T.Taylor pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:52NYJ +17% win prob(8:52) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 87-D.Sills for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 15:00NYJ +16% win prob13-B.Pinion kicks 63 yards from ATL 35 to NYJ 2. 18-I.Williams to ATL 15 for 83 yards (35-N.Brooks).
2nd · 14:11NYJ +15% win prob(14:11) 14-A.McNamara punts 37 yards to ATL 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 14-J.Agnew MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers at ATL 2.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 56-yard field goal with 0:05 left in the 4th put New York Jets ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:05Nick Folk·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.HennessyLead never changed again+324–27
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryJets
Falcons6–1Jets
389Total yards270
5.8Yards per play4.4
52%Success rate45%
33%Third-down rate44%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays3
23First downs15
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Falcons ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Falcons: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.01Jets: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Falcons: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.04Jets: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Falcons: +0.18 expected points added per play
−0.05Jets: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 67 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Jets’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 3, Jets 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NYJ's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.4% in week 12 against 20.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Jets20.0%
leaned — got home · +10.2 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteATL's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 19.0 points above their season mean of 21.0% and 1.8 times their own 10.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Nick Folk+29% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:05) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.
Q4 0:05 · Jets · 3rd & 15 at ATL 38 · gained nothing · +1.47 EP · +29.2% win probability
173 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 183. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 95 yards from the ATL 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
48%
Yards
658
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0463%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35+0.3937%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.2081%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.1350%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.4757%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 24 to midfield
Punt9 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Falcons 48
Punt10 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Jets 41
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 5 to the Falcons 48
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays
Falcons0Jets6
Falcons0Jets7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Jets 38
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 18 to the Jets 25
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Jets 49
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 26
Falcons6Jets7
Falcons7Jets7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Jets 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 40
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Falcons13Jets7
Falcons14Jets7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Jets 5
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons14Jets13
Falcons14Jets14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 48
No good9 plays, from the Falcons 28 to the Jets 29
No good9 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Falcons 36
Falcons17Jets14
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Jets 34
4th quarter64 plays
Falcons17Jets17
Field goal6 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 9
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.6 seconds
Falcons23Jets17
Falcons24Jets17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 26 to the Jets 9
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
A quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Falcons24Jets23
Falcons24Jets24
Touchdown18 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Falcons 9
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 31
The period ended7 plays
Punt4 plays
Falcons24Jets27
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 43 to the Falcons 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Falcons -3
Closing total
38.5
Falcons moneyline
-166
Jets moneyline
+140
Falcons closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 51 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 39°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; moderate drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Falcons 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Aaron Glenn
4th · 2:00
NYJ +12% win prob
(2:00) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor scrambles up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:25NYJ +12% win prob(11:25) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 7-B.Robinson to NYJ 27 for 42 yards (26-I.Oliver; 27-M.Moore). PENALTY on NYJ-41-M.McCrary-Ball, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at NYJ 27.
Falconscategory by categoryJets
Falcons0
Jets6
