2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

BUF -3 ✓U 44.5 ✓16 mph windBills closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.

Buffalo Bills 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:54, BUF +26% win probability on one snap. Played in 16 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 14:54BUF 9 — PIT 7PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 56%

(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDO

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 14:54BUF +26% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play.
Q2 · 10:40BUF +13% win prob(10:40) 4-J.Cook left end to BUF 42 for -3 yards (51-N.Herbig). FUMBLES (51-N.Herbig), touched at BUF 40, RECOVERED by PIT-6-P.Queen at BUF 39.
Q1 · 11:17BUF +8% win prob(11:17) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 13-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 26-B.Echols at PIT 35. 26-B.Echols to PIT 35 for no gain (13-G.Davis).
Q2 · 8:12PIT +8% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 8:12PIT Touchdown
(8:12) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 30-J.Warren up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — PIT 7
Q2 · 0:55BUF Field goal
(:55) 15-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 3 — PIT 7
Q3 · 14:54BUF Touchdown
(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 10 — PIT 7
Q3 · 8:53BUF Touchdown
(8:53) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 0-K.Coleman for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-97-Ca.Heyward, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Score after this play: BUF 16 — PIT 7
Q4 · 14:16BUF Touchdown
(14:16) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen right tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 23 — PIT 7
Q4 · 1:12BUF Field goal
(1:12) 15-M.Prater 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.
Score after this play: BUF 26 — PIT 7

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Steelers
Offensive plays	74	43
Total yards	372 (edge)	166
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	3.9
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.42
Success rate	46% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	36%	58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.25 (edge)	-0.47
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02 (edge)	-0.35
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	9
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

15/23, 123 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

5.4 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

10/21, 117 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-9.6 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

32 att, 144 yds, 0 TD

-7.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Ray DavisRB

9 att, 62 yds, 0 TD

1.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

Darnell WashingtonTE

2/4 for 45 yds, 0 TD

18% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

James CookRB

3/3 for 33 yds, 0 TD

13% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 23	8	40	3:49	Interception
2	PIT	PIT 35	7	12	3:40	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 18	8	45	4:12	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 20	4	6	1:38	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 13	4	6	1:35	Punt
6	PIT	PIT 41	6	13	1:14	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 20	6	20	3:20	Fumble
8	PIT	BUF 39	7	39	2:23	Touchdown +7
9	BUF	BUF 31	17	65	7:18	Field goal +3
10	PIT	PIT 13	3	17	0:51	End of half
11	PIT	PIT 26	2	-9	0:16	Defensive touchdown
12	PIT	PIT 18	5	3	1:28	Interception
13	BUF	BUF 44	9	56	4:27	Touchdown +6
14	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:27	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 17	16	83	8:14	Touchdown +7
16	PIT	PIT 34	11	73	3:57	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 9	14	57	9:04	Field goal +3
18	PIT	PIT 28	4	3	1:07	End of game

5 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 83 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	15/23	123	1	1	0	5.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	32	144	4.5	0	-7.9
Ray Davis	9	62	6.9	0	1.9
Josh Allen	8	38	4.8	1	5.2
Ty Johnson	2	5	2.5	0	2.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Cook	3	3	33	0	13%	3.1
Dawson Knox	3	4	28	0	17%	1.6
Ty Johnson	3	5	20	0	22%	0.1
Brandin Cooks	1	1	13	0	4%	2.3
Jackson Hawes	1	1	10	0	4%	0.8
Keon Coleman	2	3	9	1	13%	4.4
Khalil Shakir	1	4	5	0	17%	-2.4
Gabe Davis	1	2	5	0	9%	-4.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Shaq Thompson	5	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	3	0.0	0	0
Cole Bishop	1	3	0.0	0	0
DaQuan Jones	1	1	0.0	0	0
Christian Benford	1	1	0.0	1	1
Joey Bosa	1	1	1.0	0	0
Javon Solomon	2	0	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	1	1	0.0	0	0
Gabe Davis	1	0	0.0	0	0
Greg Rousseau	1	0	0.0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	10/21	117	0	0	1	-9.6
Mason Rudolph	0/3	0	0	1	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jaylen Warren	10	35	3.5	1	0.6
Kenneth Gainwell	5	20	4.0	0	-4.5
Kaleb Johnson	2	3	1.5	0	-0.4
Aaron Rodgers	1	0	0.0	0	-2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Darnell Washington	2	4	45	18%	-1.1
DK Metcalf	3	5	32	23%	4.9
Kenneth Gainwell	2	3	25	14%	0.1
Jaylen Warren	2	4	9	18%	-0.6
Jonnu Smith	1	2	6	9%	-0.8
Roman Wilson	0	1	0	5%	-1.6
Ben Skowronek	0	1	0	5%	-0.3
Calvin Austin III	0	2	0	9%	-3.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Payton Wilson	5	9	0
Yahya Black	4	5	0
Jalen Ramsey	6	3	0
Joey Porter Jr.	6	2	0
Malik Harrison	6	2	0
Cameron Heyward	4	3	0
Patrick Queen	2	4	0
Alex Highsmith	3	3	0
Kyle Dugger	1	4	1
Asante Samuel Jr.	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -3
Closing total: 44.5
BUF moneyline: -166
PIT moneyline: +140

Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Acrisure Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 16 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: BUF 10 days · PIT 7 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Tomlin

Wind at 16 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.