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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Acrisure Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q3 14:54, 1st and 10, on Aaron Rodgers — 26.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 14:54, Bills +26.0% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 14:54 · 1st and 10
Aaron Rodgers
Bills
(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play.
26.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.42 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.47 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDO
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian Benford's 17-yard touchdown with 14:54 left in the 3rd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Christian Benford17-yd defense TD17-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+710–7Keon Coleman1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Josh Allen · kick no good, wide left+616–76 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categorySteelers
Bills ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.47 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 74 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Steelers’s 43 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Steelers 2.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.42.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's pass rate over expected, −17.4 pts, is past their previous low of −11.1 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
74 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · −2.2σ from their own normal
BUF's play-action rate, 44.4%, is past their previous high of 32.1% in week 4 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
BUF's early-down pass rate turned over: 63.6% in week 12 against 33.3% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.5 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
PIT's blitz rate sent turned over: 24.3% in week 12 against 48.1% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.2 points. · +1.0σ from their own normal
PIT's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.2% in week 12 against 60.6% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-17.4 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −14.3 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−2.18× that swing) · 74 snaps
Steelers-5.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 80%
Tendencies room →Bills33.3%leaned — ran early · −17.0 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 57 early downs
Steelers60.6%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 55.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.76× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills44.4%leaned — faked the run · +17.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+1.13× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Steelers24.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 19.9%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Bills50.0%inside their normal wobble · −11.1 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Steelers33.3%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±24.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 6% to 64%
Tendencies room →Bills32.0%right on their number · +1.1 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Steelers48.1%leaned — sent pressure · +10.2 vs their 37.9%, and they swing ±10.2 week to week (+1.01× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills8.0%inside their normal wobble · −8.4 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Steelers3.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
BUF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -17.4 pts, 14.3 points below their season mean of -3.1 pts and 2.2 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 5 inactive
Inactive · 5
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
15/23, 123 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
5.4 expected points added · -8.5% completion over expected
Passing · PIT
10/21, 117 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-9.6 expected points added · -20.2% completion over expected
Receiving · PIT
2/4 for 45 yds, 0 TD
18% of team targets · -1.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Ray Davis banked 2.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.7 | −5.7 | 61% | 44% | 13% | 0% | 32 car, 144 yd · 3/3, 33 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 16.7 | −0.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/23, 123 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 8 car, 38 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaylen WarrenRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | −1.8 | 56% | 52% | 18% | 0% | 10 car, 35 yd, 1 TD · 2/4, 9 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.9 | +1.9 | 45% | 48% | 13% | 15% | 2/3, 9 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenny GainwellRB · Committee Back | 6.5 | −1.3 | 42% | 44% | 14% | 0% | 5 car, 20 yd · 2/3, 25 yd |
| Darnell WashingtonTE · Featured Receiver | 6.5 | −0.2 | 79% | 84% | 18% | 38% | 2/4, 45 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 6.2 | +2.1 | 18% | 15% | 0% | — | 9 car, 62 yd |
| DK MetcalfWR · Featured Receiver | 6.2 | −0.9 | 86% | 88% | 23% | 19% | 3/5, 32 yd |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.8 | −1.1 | 72% | 85% | 17% | 44% | 3/4, 28 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 5.5 | −2.2 | 27% | 52% | 22% | 0% | 2 car, 5 yd · 3/5, 20 yd |
| Aaron RodgersQB · Starter QB | 2.7 | −6.4 | 84% | — | 0% | — | 10/21, 117 yd · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | +1.4 | 23% | 37% | 4% | 33% | 1/1, 13 yd |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.6 | 70% | 41% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Jonnu SmithTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −2.8 | 53% | 52% | 9% | 10% | 1/2, 6 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 1.5 | −1.6 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −6.3 | 49% | 52% | 17% | 13% | 1/4, 5 yd |
| Kaleb JohnsonRB | 0.3 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 12% | 4% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Calvin Austin IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.1 | 49% | 56% | 9% | 27% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Roman WilsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 44% | 48% | 5% | 19% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Ben SkowronekWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Mason RudolphQB | -2.0 | −2.8 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:54) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 8-A.Rodgers sacked at PIT 17 for -9 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa) [97-J.Bosa], RECOVERED by BUF-47-C.Benford at PIT 17. 47-C.Benford for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-8-A.Rodgers was injured during the play.
Q3 14:54 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 26 · lost 9 · -8.52 EP · −24.4% win probability
141 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 153 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 148. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 83 yards from the BUF 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
153 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
153 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Bills0
Steelers6Bills0Steelers7Bills3Steelers7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Bills9Steelers7Bills10Steelers7Bills16Steelers7Bills22Steelers7Bills23Steelers7Bills26Steelers7Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Steelers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 15/23 | 123 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +5.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 32 | 144 | 4.5 | 0 | −7.9 |
| Ray Davis | 9 | 62 | 6.9 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Josh Allen |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 13% | +3.1 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaq Thompson | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 10/21 | 117 | 0 | 0 | 1 | −9.6 |
| Mason Rudolph | 0/3 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_BUF_PIT
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 33 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| 8 |
| 38 |
| 4.8 |
| 1 |
| +5.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | +2.8 |
| +1.6 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 22% | +0.1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +2.3 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 9% | −4.5 |
| Khalil Shakir | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 17% | −2.4 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Christian Benford | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Javon Solomon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaQuan Jones | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Bosa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Milano | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe Davis | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| −2.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | −4.5 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Washington | 2 | 4 | 45 | 0 | 18% | −1.1 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 | 23% | +4.9 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 | 14% | +0.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 18% | −0.6 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | −0.8 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.2 |
| Roman Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payton Wilson | 5 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yahya Black | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Harrison | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Heyward | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Dugger | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Asante Samuel Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
