For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending.mdto those URLs or by sendingAccept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
polling · 1800s tick · as of 9:34 AM ET · 14 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Fri, Nov 28, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q3 6:44, 2nd and 1, on Jalyx Hunt — 22.6 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Chicago Bears 24–15. Biggest swing: Q3 6:44, Eagles +22.6% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.5 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:44 · 2nd and 1
Jalyx Hunt
Eagles
(6:44) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 25-K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at CHI 47. 58-J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (18-C.Williams).
22.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Eagles at -0.26 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 10 of 17 on third down, against Eagles at 4 of 11 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Eagles at 5 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 22 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
(6:44) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 25-K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at CHI 47. 58-J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (18-C.Williams).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Andre Swift's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 1:35 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
A.J. Brown33-yd TD catch33-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen Hurts · kick no good, wide left+610–97 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bearscategory by categoryEagles
Bears ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Eagles, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 84 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Eagles’s 50 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Eagles 3.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 3.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
CHI's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 57.1% in week 10 — the highest of their 9 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 13 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.2 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
CHI's blitz rate sent turned over: 20.6% in week 12 against 48.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 62.2% in week 12 against 42.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +10.5 pts in week 12 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Bears-4.9 ptsright on their number · −1.1 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−0.26× that swing) · 84 snaps
Eagles-8.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 49 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 85%
Tendencies room →Bears42.2%leaned — ran early · −12.4 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 64 early downs
Eagles57.9%right on their number · +5.0 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 38 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Bears32.5%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Eagles12.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.2 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -59% to 125%
Fourth Down room →Bears75.0%leaned — went for it · +30.2 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±19.2 week to week (+1.58× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Eagles0.0%inside their normal wobble · −32.8 vs their 32.8%, and they swing ±36.0 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Bears48.5%leaned — sent pressure · +18.6 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles27.5%right on their number · +1.3 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.15× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 34%
Tendencies room →Bears3.0%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles15.0%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.25× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
CHI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 48.5%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 29.9% and 1.7 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
19/34, 230 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
2.2 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
17/36, 154 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-6.0 expected points added · -12.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
A.J. Brown banked 14.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. BrownWR · Alpha Receiver | 35.2 | +14.7 | 96% | 97% | 40% | 45% | 10/12, 132 yd, 2 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 20.8 | +7.6 | 53% | 55% | 6% | 0% | 18 car, 125 yd, 1 TD · 1/2, 13 yd |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Committee Back | 19.0 | +6.3 | 45% | 35% | 3% | 0% | 22 car, 130 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 16.3 | +1.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/34, 230 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 31 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 12.6 | +7.2 | 67% | 53% | 9% | 10% | 3/3, 36 yd, 1 TD |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Alpha Receiver | 9.8 | −1.4 | 94% | 94% | 27% | 22% | 5/8, 48 yd |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 9.5 | −7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/36, 154 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 5 car, 13 yd |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Featured Receiver | 7.6 | −2.4 | 51% | 57% | 19% | 13% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/6, 33 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Featured Receiver | 5.8 | −3.3 | 59% | 65% | 19% | 27% | 3/6, 28 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.6 | −4.9 | 93% | 91% | 7% | 0% | 13 car, 56 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| DJ MooreWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −4.4 | 91% | 93% | 16% | 21% | 1 car, 10 yd · 2/5, 17 yd |
| Dallas GoedertTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.7 | −0.9 | 89% | 91% | 13% | 11% | 2/4, 27 yd |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −1.8 | 28% | 20% | 9% | 6% | 2/3, 19 yd |
| Rome OdunzeWR · Featured Receiver | 2.8 | −7.0 | 80% | 85% | 19% | 23% | 2/6, 8 yd |
| Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.2 | −2.3 | 59% | 66% | 10% | 10% | 1/3, 12 yd |
| Will ShipleyRB | 2.1 | +0.7 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Devin DuvernayWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Travis HomerRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Cameron LatuTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Britain CoveyWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:44) 18-C.Williams pass short left intended for 25-K.Monangai INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Hunt at CHI 47. 58-J.Hunt to CHI 36 for 11 yards (18-C.Williams).
Q3 6:44 · Bears · 2nd & 1 at PHI 45 · gained nothing · -6.91 EP · −25.8% win probability
171 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 181 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 176. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 92 yards from the PHI 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bears6
Eagles0Bears7Eagles0Bears7Eagles3Bears10Eagles3How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
Bears10Eagles9How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a screen, play action, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
Three in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Bears16Eagles9Bears17Eagles9Bears23Eagles9Bears24Eagles9Bears24Eagles15Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bears at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/36 | 154 | 1 | 1 | 2 | −6.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | 22 | 130 | 5.9 | 1 | +2.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 125 | 6.9 | 1 | +5.1 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 | 9% | +3.8 |
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 19% | −1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaquan Brisker | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| D'Marco Jackson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 19/34 | 230 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_CHI_PHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 39 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 15.5 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| DJ Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 | 19% | +3.2 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 | 9% | +2.7 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 16% | +0.9 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.4 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 19% | −2.4 |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −6.9 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Austin Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amen Ogbongbemiga | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grady Jarrett | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylon Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
| 56 |
| 4.3 |
| 0 |
| −1.0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 | −3.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 12 | 132 | 2 | 40% | +6.6 |
| DeVonta Smith | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 27% | +2.6 |
| Dallas Goedert | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13% | −1.9 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 10% | −0.5 |
| Will Shipley | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reed Blankenship | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nakobe Dean | 5 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sydney Brown | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper DeJean | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Carter | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Moro Ojomo | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaelan Phillips | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
