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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:58 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati32
BY 18final margin
RavensBaltimore14
Cincinnati Bengals 32 at Baltimore Ravens 14. Final.
Ravens -7 upsetU 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 13
Cincinnati Bengals 32, Ravens 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 13:04, 3rd and 9, on Demetrius Knight Jr. — 15.4 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:04 · 3rd and 9
Demetrius Knight Jr.
Bengals
(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight (99-M.Murphy) at CIN 8. 44-D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (51-E.Jones).
Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cincinnati Bengals 32–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:04, Bengals +15.4% win probability on one snap.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonBengalsQ1 3:36(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (58-J.Ossai). FUMBLES (58-J.Ossai) [58-J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 6. 52-C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards (8-L.Jackson).
12.3pts
Lamar JacksonBengalsQ2 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 19.
15.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bengals won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 4 giveaways.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bengals won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Bengalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.18 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Bengals won this one — -0.00 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.34 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Bengals179 of 192 plays carry both curves
(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight (99-M.Murphy) at CIN 8. 44-D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (51-E.Jones).
Swing −15.4 for RavensExpected points −5.82 for RavensThe model had Bengals 9 points higher than the market did.play 147
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:04CIN +15% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight (99-M.Murphy) at CIN 8. 44-D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (51-E.Jones).
2nd · 0:36CIN +15% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 19.
1st · 3:36CIN +12% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (58-J.Ossai). FUMBLES (58-J.Ossai) [58-J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 6. 52-C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards (8-L.Jackson).
3rd · 0:07BAL +11% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 31 for 44 yards (99-M.Murphy).
2nd · 4:10BAL +10% win prob(4:10) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase ran ob at BAL 10 for 15 yards.
3rd · 0:20BAL +9% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Evan McPherson's 24-yard field goal with 2:39 left in the 2nd put Cincinnati Bengals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:42Evan McPherson·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+33–0
3rd0:20Andrei Iosivas·29-yd TD catch29-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow+726–14
4th9:30Evan McPherson·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+329–14
4th1:11Evan McPherson·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder R.Rehkow · snap W.Wagner+332–14
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals5–2Ravens
382Total yards347
4.8Yards per play6.2
39%Success rate39%
42%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays6
19First downs16
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers4
The read
Bengals ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.00Bengals: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.34Ravens: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Bengals: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.58Ravens: −0.58 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Bengals: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.18Ravens: +0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 80 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Ravens’s 56 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 7, Ravens 3.
NoteBengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's play-action rate turned over: 37.9% in week 12 against 15.8% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Ravens14.6%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.06× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 63.6%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 45.9% and 1.4 times their own 12.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (58-J.Ossai). FUMBLES (58-J.Ossai) [58-J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 6. 52-C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q1 3:36 · Ravens · 3rd & 9 at BAL 15 · lost 9 · -5.29 EP · −17.0% win probability
177 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 84 yards from the CIN 10 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
728
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.1156%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.1867%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.2662%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.7270%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.2250%
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Bengals3Ravens0
Field goal12 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Ravens 13
Bengals3Ravens6
Bengals3Ravens7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Bengals 28
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bengals 35
How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 15
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.2 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays
Punt5 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Ravens 49
2nd quarter57 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Bengals6Ravens7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Ravens 24
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Drive ended8 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Bengals 44
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals9Ravens7
Field goal13 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Ravens 6
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Bengals 36
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 46
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Bengals12Ravens7
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 19 to the Ravens 15
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 28
Bengals18Ravens7
Bengals19Ravens7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bengals 39 to the Ravens 14
Bengals19Ravens13
Bengals19Ravens14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bengals 18
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bengals25Ravens14
Bengals26Ravens14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Ravens 29
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Intercepted5 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 15
Bengals29Ravens14
Field goal8 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Ravens 33
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Ravens 48 to the Ravens 12
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 38
Bengals32Ravens14
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 36 to the Ravens 23
The period ended5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -7
Closing total
52.5
Bengals moneyline
+295
Ravens moneyline
-375
Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 46 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the west; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Bengals 4 days · Ravens 4 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 8:32CIN +8% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely to CIN 1 for 43 yards (27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (27-J.Battle), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.
3rd · 7:28BAL +8% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bengalscategory by categoryRavens
Bengals3
Ravens0
