2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Cincinnati BengalsWinner

Baltimore Ravens

BAL -7 upsetU 52.5 ✓Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cincinnati Bengals 32–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 13:04, CIN +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 13:04CIN 26 — BAL 14BAL ball · 3rd & 9CIN 77%

(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight (99-M.Murphy) at CIN 8. 44-D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (51-E.Jones).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 13:04CIN +15% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 89-M.Andrews INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight (99-M.Murphy) at CIN 8. 44-D.Knight to CIN 47 for 39 yards (51-E.Jones).
Q2 · 0:36CIN +15% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 13 for -7 yards. FUMBLES, touched at BAL 15, RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 19.
Q1 · 3:36CIN +12% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 6 for -9 yards (58-J.Ossai). FUMBLES (58-J.Ossai) [58-J.Ossai], RECOVERED by CIN-52-C.Johnson at BAL 6. 52-C.Johnson to BAL 2 for 4 yards (8-L.Jackson).
Q3 · 0:07BAL +11% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 22-D.Henry to CIN 31 for 44 yards (99-M.Murphy).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 9:42CIN Field goal
(9:42) 2-E.McPherson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 3 — BAL 0
Q1 · 6:41BAL Touchdown
(6:41) 22-D.Henry left guard for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 3 — BAL 7
Q2 · 11:28CIN Field goal
(11:28) 2-E.McPherson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 6 — BAL 7
Q2 · 2:39CIN Field goal
(2:39) 2-E.McPherson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 9 — BAL 7
Q2 · 0:14CIN Field goal
(:14) 2-E.McPherson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 12 — BAL 7
Q3 · 7:28CIN Touchdown
(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 87-T.Hudson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 19 — BAL 7
Q3 · 4:05BAL Touchdown
(4:05) 34-K.Mitchell right end for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 19 — BAL 14
Q3 · 0:20CIN Touchdown
(:20) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 80-A.Iosivas for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CIN 26 — BAL 14
Q4 · 9:30CIN Field goal
(9:30) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 29 — BAL 14
Q4 · 1:11CIN Field goal
(1:11) 2-E.McPherson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.
Score after this play: CIN 32 — BAL 14

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Ravens
Offensive plays	80	56
Total yards	382 (edge)	347
Yards per play	4.8	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.00 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	39%	39% (edge)
Dropback rate	60%	68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.58
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	0.18 (edge)
Third downs	8/19 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	6
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bengals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.00 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

24/46, 261 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.1 expected points added · -6.0% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

17/32, 246 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.8 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Chase BrownRB

15 att, 78 yds, 0 TD

-0.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

10 att, 60 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

7/14 for 110 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 7.3 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Isaiah LikelyTE

5/6 for 95 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 36	11	46	5:21	Field goal +3
2	BAL	BAL 31	9	69	3:06	Touchdown +7
3	CIN	CIN 33	5	2	1:36	Punt
4	BAL	BAL 14	3	-8	1:28	Fumble
5	CIN	BAL 2	4	0	0:57	Turnover on downs
6	BAL	BAL 2	4	0	0:59	Punt
7	CIN	CIN 47	11	34	5:09	Field goal +3
8	BAL	BAL 31	8	68	3:02	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 20	11	89	5:46	Field goal +3
10	BAL	BAL 34	7	31	1:01	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 20	7	31	0:59	Punt
12	BAL	BAL 20	1	-5	0:08	Fumble
13	CIN	BAL 19	4	4	0:18	Field goal +3
14	BAL	BAL 33	2	0	0:10	End of half
15	BAL	BAL 22	5	6	2:12	Punt
16	CIN	CIN 39	11	44	5:26	Touchdown +7
17	BAL	BAL 32	9	68	3:23	Touchdown +7
18	CIN	CIN 32	10	68	3:44	Touchdown +7
19	BAL	BAL 35	7	60	2:21	Interception
20	CIN	CIN 47	7	19	3:29	Field goal +3
21	BAL	BAL 35	7	14	1:29	Turnover on downs
22	CIN	BAL 48	6	27	2:55	Fumble
23	BAL	BAL 16	5	27	0:49	Fumble
24	CIN	BAL 36	6	18	3:06	Field goal +3
25	BAL	BAL 35	4	17	1:06	End of game

10 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 89 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	24/46	261	2	0	1	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	15	78	5.2	-0.1
Samaje Perine	14	39	2.8	-7.2
Joe Burrow	3	8	2.7	1.6
Drew Sample	1	3	3.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	7	14	110	0	32%	7.3
Chase Brown	7	7	35	0	16%	-0.2
Andrei Iosivas	1	2	29	1	5%	2.4
Mitchell Tinsley	2	9	22	0	20%	-1.9
Mike Gesicki	2	4	19	0	9%	-0.2
Samaje Perine	2	2	15	0	5%	-1.0
Drew Sample	1	2	14	0	5%	0.5
Tanner Hudson	1	2	14	1	5%	3.0
Noah Fant	1	2	3	0	5%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	6	4	0.0	0	0
Daxton Hill	3	3	0.0	0	2
Barrett Carter	3	2	0.0	0	0
Demetrius Knight Jr.	3	2	0.0	1	1
B.J. Hill	2	3	0.0	0	0
Joseph Ossai	3	1	2.0	0	0
Geno Stone	4	0	0.0	0	0
Myles Murphy	2	1	0.0	0	1
PJ Jules	1	1	0.0	0	0
D.J. Ivey	1	1	0.0	0	0

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	17/32	246	0	1	3	-11.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	10	60	6.0	1	2.1
Lamar Jackson	6	27	4.5	0	2.1
Keaton Mitchell	2	19	9.5	1	1.5
Rasheen Ali	4	17	4.3	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Isaiah Likely	5	6	95	20%	-0.6
Mark Andrews	4	6	47	20%	-3.0
Derrick Henry	1	1	44	3%	2.9
DeAndre Hopkins	2	3	25	10%	0.9
Charlie Kolar	1	1	17	3%	1.1
Keaton Mitchell	2	3	12	10%	0.3
Zay Flowers	2	7	6	23%	-11.1
Devontez Walker	0	2	0	7%	-0.9
Rashod Bateman	0	1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	3	8	0.0	0
Marlon Humphrey	7	2	1.0	0
Alohi Gilman	5	3	0.0	1
Teddye Buchanan	5	2	0.0	0
Kyle Hamilton	4	3	0.0	1
Travis Jones	1	5	0.0	0
Malaki Starks	1	5	0.0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	5	0	0.0	2
Mike Green	2	3	0.0	0
Nate Wiggins	2	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -7
Closing total: 52.5
CIN moneyline: +295
BAL moneyline: -375

Ravens closed -7 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 46 — under by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: CIN 4 days · BAL 4 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.