2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · FedExField

Denver BroncosWinner

Washington Commanders

DEN -6.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓Broncos closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Denver Broncos 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:58, WAS +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

OT · 3:58DEN 27 — WAS 20WAS ball · 3rd & 14DEN 51%

(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

OT · 3:58WAS +43% win prob(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).
OT · 2:47DEN +43% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
OT · 6:59DEN +39% win prob3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
OT · 2:50DEN +38% win prob(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:31DEN Field goal
(10:31) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 3 — WAS 0
Q2 · 7:54DEN Field goal
(7:54) 3-W.Lutz 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Score after this play: DEN 6 — WAS 0
Q2 · 2:25WAS Touchdown
(2:25) (Shotgun) 36-C.Rodriguez up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 6 — WAS 7
Q2 · 0:28DEN Touchdown
(:28) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN [52-P.Smith]. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 13 — WAS 7
Q3 · 10:02WAS Touchdown
(10:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-T.Burks for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 13 — WAS 14
Q3 · 4:02DEN Touchdown
(4:02) 73-F.Crum reported in as eligible. 12-R.Harvey left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 20 — WAS 14
Q4 · 12:40WAS Field goal
(12:40) 16-J.Moody 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: DEN 20 — WAS 17
Q4 · 0:04WAS Field goal
(:04) 16-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.
Score after this play: DEN 20 — WAS 20
OT · 7:03DEN Touchdown
(7:03) 12-R.Harvey left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: DEN 27 — WAS 20
OT · 2:50WAS Touchdown
(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: DEN 27 — WAS 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Commanders
Offensive plays	69	85
Total yards	402	420 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.18 (edge)	0.07
Success rate	45% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	70%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.24 (edge)	0.05
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.05	0.13 (edge)
Third downs	7/15	8/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23	28 (edge)
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1	1

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

29/45, 321 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

9.9 expected points added · -4.0% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

28/50, 294 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.3 expected points added · +3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Marcus MariotaQB

10 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

4.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB

11 att, 41 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Zach ErtzTE

10/13 for 106 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/14 for 96 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 26	12	59	4:32	Field goal +3
2	WAS	WAS 21	12	35	5:52	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 11	4	6	1:39	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 42	9	39	3:36	Interception
5	DEN	DEN 34	13	56	6:30	Field goal +3
6	WAS	WAS 29	13	69	5:30	Touchdown +7
7	DEN	DEN 36	12	64	1:58	Touchdown +7
8	WAS	WAS 35	2	0	0:23	End of half
9	WAS	WAS 28	12	72	5:02	Touchdown +7
10	DEN	DEN 28	13	82	5:59	Touchdown +7
11	WAS	WAS 31	7	20	3:15	Punt
12	DEN	DEN 14	5	19	1:38	Interception
13	WAS	DEN 36	5	16	1:29	Field goal +3
14	DEN	DEN 29	5	1	2:25	Punt
15	WAS	WAS 27	4	8	1:30	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 20	8	33	4:00	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 20	5	5	1:11	Punt
18	DEN	DEN 29	4	6	0:31	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 15	18	86	3:00	Field goal +3
20	DEN	DEN 24	7	76	3:01	Touchdown +7
21	WAS	WAS 35	13	70	4:12	Touchdown +6

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 86 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Bo Nix	29/45	321	1	1	1	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
RJ Harvey	13	35	2.7	2	0.4
Jaleel McLaughlin	6	24	4.0	0	-0.9
Bo Nix	2	16	8.0	0	1.8
Marvin Mims Jr.	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Adam Prentice	1	3	3.0	0	0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	6	9	79	0	21%	1.8
Courtland Sutton	5	6	62	1	14%	6.4
Adam Trautman	3	4	47	0	9%	5.0
Pat Bryant	3	7	42	0	16%	-2.2
RJ Harvey	3	4	27	0	9%	1.0
Troy Franklin	2	3	21	0	7%	-0.1
Tyler Badie	3	5	18	0	12%	-0.2
Adam Prentice	1	1	11	0	2%	1.8
Marvin Mims Jr.	2	2	8	0	5%	0.4
Jaleel McLaughlin	1	1	6	0	2%	-0.3
Lil'Jordan Humphrey	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Talanoa Hufanga	10	3	0.0	0	1
Brandon Jones	6	2	0.0	0	0
Alex Singleton	4	2	0.0	0	2
Ja'Quan McMillian	4	2	0.0	0	1
Dre Greenlaw	2	3	0.0	1	1
Jonathon Cooper	3	2	0.0	0	0
Pat Surtain II	4	0	0.0	0	1
Riley Moss	3	1	0.0	0	2
Malcolm Roach	1	3	0.0	0	0
Dondrea Tillman	1	3	1.0	0	0

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Marcus Mariota	28/50	294	2	1	2	-0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Marcus Mariota	10	55	5.5	0	4.4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	11	41	3.7	1	0.5
Jeremy McNichols	6	30	5.0	0	3.4
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	4	20	5.0	0	-0.1
Deebo Samuel Sr.	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zach Ertz	10	13	106	0	29%	3.6
Terry McLaurin	7	14	96	1	31%	5.9
Deebo Samuel Sr.	5	7	64	0	16%	3.4
Colson Yankoff	1	1	14	0	2%	1.0
John Bates	2	2	9	0	4%	-0.4
Treylon Burks	1	4	5	1	9%	1.3
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	0	1	0	0	2%	-5.8
Jeremy McNichols	2	2	0	0	4%	-2.3
Jaylin Lane	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Bobby Wagner	3	5	0.0	1	1
Mike Sainristil	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jeremy Reaves	3	4	0.0	0	1
Quan Martin	2	5	0.0	0	0
Noah Igbinoghene	3	3	0.0	0	1
Jordan Magee	3	3	0.0	0	0
Will Harris	4	2	0.0	0	1
Jonathan Jones	5	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	3	0.0	0	0
Frankie Luvu	1	3	1.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DEN -6.5
Closing total: 43.5
DEN moneyline: -310
WAS moneyline: +250

Broncos closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FedExField
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 40°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: DEN 14 days · WAS 14 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn