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DYNATYZE
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Denver Broncos 27 at Washington Commanders 26. Final.
Broncos -6.5 no coverO 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 13
Denver Broncos 27, Commanders 26 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 3:58, 3rd and 14, on Deebo Samuel Sr. — 43.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Broncos closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 27–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 3:58, Commanders +43.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · OT 3:58 · 3rd and 14
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Commanders
(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).
43.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersOT 6:593-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
39.3pts
Jeremy McNicholsBroncosOT 2:47TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
43.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Broncos at 7 chunk plays.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.24 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at +0.05 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Broncos won this one — +0.18 expected points per snap, against Commanders at +0.07 expected points per snap.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 45% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Broncos193 of 209 plays carry both curves
(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).
Swing +43.4 for CommandersExpected points +4.52 for CommandersModel and market agree here.play 200
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 3:58WAS +43% win prob(3:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 1-D.Samuel to DEN 2 for 38 yards (21-R.Moss).
Overtime · 2:47DEN +43% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Overtime · 6:59DEN +39% win prob3-W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.
Overtime · 2:50DEN +38% win prob(2:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 5:29WAS +35% win prob(5:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right intended for 26-J.McNichols INTERCEPTED by 22-B.Jones (9-T.Hufanga) [98-J.Franklin-Myers] at DEN 37. 22-B.Jones to DEN 36 for -1 yards (63-T.Biadasz). PENALTY on DEN-9-T.Hufanga, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 41 - No Play.
Overtime · 8:25WAS +28% win prob(8:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short middle to 1-E.Engram to WAS 11 for 41 yards (0-M.Sainristil; 3-W.Harris).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
RJ Harvey's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 7:03 left in overtime put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st10:31Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+33–0
2nd7:54Wil Lutz·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Crawshaw · snap M.Fraboni+36–0
4th12:40Jake Moody·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap Z.Triner+320–17
4th0:04Jake Moody·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap Z.Triner+320–20
Overtime7:03RJ Harvey·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+727–20
Overtime2:50Terry McLaurin·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Marcus Mariotafrom Marcus Mariota · two-point no good+627–26
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryCommanders
Broncos3–4Commanders
402Total yards420
5.8Yards per play4.9
45%Success rate41%
47%Third-down rate47%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays9
23First downs28
1Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Commanders ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.18Broncos: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.07Commanders: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.24Broncos: +0.24 expected points added per play
+0.05Commanders: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Broncos: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.13Commanders: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 69 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Commanders’s 85 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 5, Commanders 6.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.18 expected points added per play vs 0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.8 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.35× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Commanders8.3%
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.93× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
NoteWAS's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 12.5%, 14.5 points below their season mean of 27.0% and 1.7 times their own 8.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
M.Mariota pass−47% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-M.Mariota pass to 26-J.McNichols is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
OT 2:47 · Commanders · — at DEN 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −46.8% win probability
191 snaps placed · 18 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 209 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 203. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 76 yards from the DEN 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
209 of 209 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
209
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
42%
Yards
821
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.2167%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.2275%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0657%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.130%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.2560%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Commanders0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
209 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
209 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Broncos3Commanders0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Commanders 15
Punt14 plays, from the Commanders 21 to the Broncos 38
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 11 to the Broncos 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Broncos 36
2nd quarter48 plays
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 19
Broncos6Commanders0
Field goal14 plays, from the Broncos 34 to the Commanders 10
Broncos6Commanders6
Broncos6Commanders7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Broncos 8
Broncos12Commanders7
Broncos13Commanders7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Commanders 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
How the play was built
A run-pass option, play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Broncos13Commanders13
Broncos13Commanders14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Broncos 3
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.5 seconds
Broncos19Commanders14
Broncos20Commanders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Commanders 1
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Broncos 49
The period ended3 plays, from the Broncos 14 to the Broncos 15
4th quarter59 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 33
Broncos20Commanders17
Field goal5 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 20
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 36
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Commanders 35
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Commanders 47
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, a man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 37
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 35
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Broncos20Commanders20
Field goal21 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Broncos 14
Overtime26 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos26Commanders20
Broncos27Commanders20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Commanders 5
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
How the play was built
No huddle, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Broncos27Commanders26
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Touchdown17 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Broncos 2
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Broncos -6.5
Closing total
43.5
Broncos moneyline
-310
Commanders moneyline
+250
Broncos closed -6.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 53 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Broncos 14 days · Commanders 14 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Dan Quinn
Overtime · 4:04DEN +24% win prob(4:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 30 - No Play.
4th · 0:04WAS +22% win prob(:04) 16-J.Moody 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-Z.Triner, Holder-10-T.Way.
Broncoscategory by categoryCommanders
Broncos3
Commanders0
