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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:10 AM ET · 16 to play
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.4 for LionsExpected points −4.50 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 41
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:25DET +15% win prob(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:38DET +14% win prob(10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:31DET +11% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:26GB +10% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at GB 13 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons). GB-95-D.Wyatt was injured during the play.
2nd · 10:28DET +10% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 85-T.Kennedy to GB 9 for 23 yards (29-X.McKinney).
2nd · 5:55DET +10% win prob(5:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks to DET 36 for 18 yards (32-B.Branch).
4th · 10:55
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brandon McManus's 45-yard field goal with 9:17 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:17Brandon McManus·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+33–0
2nd14:25Dontayvion Wicks·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+710–0
2nd2:16Romeo Doubs·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+717–7
2nd0:31Jameson Williams·22-yd TD catch22-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+717–14
3rd10:38Christian Watson·51-yd TD catch51-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+724–14
3rd7:32Isaac TeSlaa·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+724–21
3rd1:50Dontayvion Wicks·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+731–21
4th3:02Jake Bates·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+331–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers4–3Lions
362Total yards352
6.4Yards per play5.9
49%Success rate42%
50%Third-down rate62%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays10
17First downs19
0Sacks taken3
0Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.04Lions: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.50Packers: +0.50 expected points added per play
+0.34Lions: +0.34 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
−0.28Lions: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Lions’s 60 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
DET's pass rate over expected, −22.2 pts, is past their previous low of −11.1 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.8-swing turn from week 12.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
GB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 12 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.2 pts, 17.5 points below their season mean of -4.8 pts and 2.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
65Aaron BanksG · Every snap100%63 snaps
75Sean RhyanG · Every snap100%63 snaps
50Zach TomT · Every snap100%63 snaps
63Rasheed WalkerT · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Anthony BeltonT · Every snap100%63 snaps
10Jordan LoveQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
87Romeo DoubsWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
9Christian WatsonWR · Heavy rotation73%46 snaps
88Luke MusgraveTE · Heavy rotation59%37 snaps
8Josh JacobsRB · Heavy rotation54%34 snaps
81Josh WhyleTE · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
13Dontayvion WicksWR · Rotational49%31 snaps
30Chris BrooksRB · Rotational29%18 snaps
86John FitzPatrickTE · Situational24%15 snaps
70Darian KinnardT · Situational22%14 snaps
23Emanuel WilsonRB · Situational19%12 snaps
16Bo MeltonCB · Situational17%11 snaps
18Malik HeathWR · Situational17%11 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nate HobbsCBLukas Van NessDEKarl BrooksDTDonovan JenningsGQuay WalkerOLBMatthew GoldenWRSavion WilliamsWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:25 · Packers · 4th & 3 at DET 22 · gained 22 · +4.50 EP · +14.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 77 yards from the GB 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
47%
Yards
711
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.0354%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.5073%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15-0.1540%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.5154%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4957%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0417%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Packers3Lions0
Field goal13 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Lions 27
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 37
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 22
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Packers 49
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Lions 29
2nd quarter50 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers9Lions0
Packers10Lions0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 22
Packers10Lions6
Packers10Lions7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Packers 3
Packers16Lions7
Packers17Lions7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Lions 2
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Packers17Lions13
Packers17Lions14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Packers 22
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Packers 46
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Packers23Lions14
Packers24Lions14
Touchdown3 plays
Packers24Lions20
Packers24Lions21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Packers 17
Packers30Lions21
Packers31Lions21
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Lions 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 46
4th quarter40 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 42 to the Packers 21
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 28
Packers31Lions24
Field goal14 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Packers 4
The period ended15 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Lions 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -2.5
Closing total
48.5
Packers moneyline
+130
Lions moneyline
-155
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
Packers 4 days · Lions 4 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
GB +8% win prob
(10:55) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 1-J.Williams.
2nd · 7:58DET +8% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
