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2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · Ford Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

31

Detroit Lions

24

DET -2.5 upsetO 48.5 ✓Dome

Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 14:25, DET +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DET ↑GB ↓
Q2 · 14:25GB 9 — DET 0GB ball · 4th & 3GB 57%

(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 14:25DET +15% win prob(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 10:38DET +14% win prob(10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q2 · 0:31DET +11% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 3:26GB +10% win prob(3:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at GB 13 for -9 yards (1-M.Parsons). GB-95-D.Wyatt was injured during the play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 9:17GB Field goal

    (9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — DET 0
  2. Q2 · 14:25GB Touchdown

    (14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — DET 0
  3. Q2 · 7:58DET Touchdown

    (7:58) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 10 — DET 7
  4. Q2 · 2:16GB Touchdown

    (2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — DET 7
  5. Q2 · 0:31DET Touchdown

    (:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 17 — DET 14
  6. Q3 · 10:38GB Touchdown

    (10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — DET 14
  7. Q3 · 7:32DET Touchdown

    (7:32) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 24 — DET 21
  8. Q3 · 1:50GB Touchdown

    (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 21
  9. Q4 · 3:02DET Field goal

    (3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 24

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersLions
Offensive plays5760
Total yards362 (edge)352
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.9
Expected points added / play0.29 (edge)0.04
Success rate49% (edge)42%
Dropback rate56%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.50 (edge)0.34
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.02 (edge)-0.28
Third downs6/128/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)710 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1719 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)3
Turnovers00

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Jared GoffQB

20/26, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.5 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

18/30, 234 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

16.4 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

17 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Jahmyr GibbsRB

20 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-8.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Jameson WilliamsWR

7/10 for 144 yds, 1 TD

37% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Dontayvion WicksWR

6/7 for 94 yds, 2 TD

24% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 1713565:48Field goal +3
2DETDET 35520:53Punt
3GBGB 17451:47Punt
4DETDET 37683:06Punt
5GBGB 2310724:07Touchdown +7
6DETDET 3512706:25Touchdown +7
7GBGB 3014665:42Touchdown +7
8DETDET 359601:47Touchdown +7
9GBGB 26300:25End of half
10DETDET 348173:52Turnover on downs
11GBGB 493510:37Touchdown +7
12DETDET 297713:06Touchdown +7
13GBGB 2811705:41Touchdown +7
14DETDET 2612625:54Turnover on downs
15GBGB 22461:48Punt
16DETDET 2013626:03Field goal +3
17GBGB 3510362:59End of game

9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love18/3023440016.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs17834.90-1.1
Bo Melton2157.500.7
Emanuel Wilson4143.500.7
Dontayvion Wicks166.000.5
Jordan Love540.80-3.1
Christian Watson133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dontayvion Wicks6794224%11.4
Christian Watson41080134%3.4
Luke Musgrave112303%1.9
Romeo Doubs4420114%3.8
Chris Brooks22907%-1.0
Josh Jacobs11803%0.5
Bo Melton01003%-0.5
John FitzPatrick01003%-0.8
Josh Whyle01003%-1.2
Malik Heath01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Isaiah McDuffie650.000
Evan Williams360.000
Edgerrin Cooper260.000
Micah Parsons342.500
Keisean Nixon600.000
Xavier McKinney330.001
Javon Bullard220.000
Devonte Wyatt310.000
Rashan Gary110.000
Carrington Valentine200.000

Detroit Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jared Goff20/262562039.5
David Montgomery0/10000-0.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jahmyr Gibbs20683.40-8.0
David Montgomery8324.011.1
Jared Goff12424.001.3
Jameson Williams1-5-5.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jameson Williams710144137%7.1
Tom Kennedy4436015%4.5
Isaac TeSlaa223517%3.2
Jahmyr Gibbs3418015%1.4
David Montgomery221607%1.0
Anthony Firkser11404%-0.2
Ross Dwelley133011%-2.0
Amon-Ra St. Brown01004%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Brian Branch730.002
Jack Campbell540.000
Alex Anzalone540.000
Aidan Hutchinson330.000
Amik Robertson220.003
Terrion Arnold400.000
Thomas Harper130.000
Khalil Dorsey110.000
D.J. Reed200.000
Sione Vaki110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DET -2.5
Closing total
48.5
GB moneyline
+130
DET moneyline
-155

Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Ron Torbert
Rest
GB 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Dan Campbell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.