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2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · Ford Field
31
24
Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 14:25, DET +15% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(9:17) 17-B.McManus 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
Score after this play: GB 3 — DET 0(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — DET 0(7:58) (Shotgun) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 5-D.Montgomery. 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 10 — DET 7(2:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 87-R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 17 — DET 7(:31) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 17 — DET 14(10:38) (No Huddle) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 9-C.Watson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 24 — DET 14(7:32) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 24 — DET 21(1:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 13-D.Wicks for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 21(3:02) 39-J.Bates 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
Score after this play: GB 31 — DET 24Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Packers | Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 60 |
| Total yards | 362 (edge) | 352 |
| Yards per play | 6.4 (edge) | 5.9 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.29 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Success rate | 49% (edge) | 42% |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 52% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.50 (edge) | 0.34 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.02 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Third downs | 6/12 | 8/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 10 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 17 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
20/26, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.5 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Passing · GB
18/30, 234 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
16.4 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/10 for 144 yds, 1 TD
37% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added
Receiving · GB
6/7 for 94 yds, 2 TD
24% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 17 | 13 | 56 | 5:48 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | DET | DET 35 | 5 | 2 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 17 | 4 | 5 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 4 | DET | DET 37 | 6 | 8 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 5 | GB | GB 23 | 10 | 72 | 4:07 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 6 | DET | DET 35 | 12 | 70 | 6:25 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | GB | GB 30 | 14 | 66 | 5:42 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 8 | DET | DET 35 | 9 | 60 | 1:47 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | GB | GB 26 | 3 | 0 | 0:25 | End of half | |
| 10 | DET | DET 34 | 8 | 17 | 3:52 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | GB | GB 49 | 3 | 51 | 0:37 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 12 | DET | DET 29 | 7 | 71 | 3:06 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | GB | GB 28 | 11 | 70 | 5:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | DET | DET 26 | 12 | 62 | 5:54 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | GB | GB 22 | 4 | 6 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 16 | DET | DET 20 | 13 | 62 | 6:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | GB | GB 35 | 10 | 36 | 2:59 | End of game |
9 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 18/30 | 234 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 | 0.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | -3.1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 | 24% | 11.4 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 10 | 80 | 1 | 34% | 3.4 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper | 2 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Micah Parsons |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/26 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9.5 |
| David Montgomery | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg |
|---|
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.9 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 14% | 3.8 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | -1.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | 0.5 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| John FitzPatrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.2 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 2.5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TD |
|---|
| EPA |
|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 | -8.0 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 | 1.1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | 1.3 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 | 37% | 7.1 |
| Tom Kennedy | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 7% | 3.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 15% | 1.4 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | 1.0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | -0.2 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11% | -2.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Thomas Harper | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrion Arnold | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
