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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · Ford Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q2 14:25, 4th and 3, on Dontayvion Wicks — 15.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q2 14:25, Packers +15.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:25 · 4th and 3
Dontayvion Wicks
Packers
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.02 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Packers at 7 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 5 points apart.
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Brandon McManus's 45-yard field goal with 9:17 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Brandon McManus45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+33–09 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 57 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Lions’s 60 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 4.
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
DET's pass rate over expected, −22.2 pts, is past their previous low of −11.1 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points. · −2.3σ from their own normal
GB's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 12 against 60.0% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.4 points. · +0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
Over Expected room →Packers1.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.8 vs their -4.3 pts, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 57 snaps
Lions-22.2 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −17.5 vs their -4.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−2.34× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 84%
Tendencies room →Packers47.6%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 42 early downs
Lions48.9%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 53.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 53%
Tendencies room →Packers31.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.1 vs their 26.1%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.65× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Lions22.6%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 25.9%, and they swing ±10.6 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31% to 121%
Fourth Down room →Packers60.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.3 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±27.4 week to week (+0.74× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Lions—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 65.6%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 61%
Tendencies room →Packers22.6%right on their number · −1.6 vs their 24.2%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions31.3%right on their number · −0.6 vs their 31.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 39%
Tendencies room →Packers19.4%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (+0.38× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Lions6.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
DET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -22.2 pts, 17.5 points below their season mean of -4.8 pts and 2.3 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Who moved the needle
Passing · DET
20/26, 256 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
9.5 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Passing · GB
18/30, 234 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
16.4 expected points added · +0.9% completion over expected
Receiving · DET
7/10 for 144 yds, 1 TD
37% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added
Receiving · GB
6/7 for 94 yds, 2 TD
24% of team targets · 11.4 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dontayvion Wicks banked 11.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion WicksWR · Featured Receiver | 28.0 | +11.5 | 49% | 69% | 24% | 25% | 1 car, 6 yd · 6/7, 94 yd, 2 TD |
| Jameson WilliamsWR · Alpha Receiver | 26.9 | +9.7 | 94% | 97% | 37% | 51% | 1 car, -5 yd · 7/10, 144 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan LoveQB · Starter QB | 25.8 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/30, 234 yd, 4 TD · 5 car, 4 yd |
| Jared GoffQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +7.5 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 20/26, 256 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 24 yd |
| Christian WatsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 18.3 | −4.8 | 73% | 81% | 34% | 54% | 1 car, 3 yd · 4/10, 80 yd, 1 TD |
| David MontgomeryRB | 12.8 | +3.3 | 38% | 42% | 7% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd · 8 car, 32 yd, 1 TD · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Romeo DoubsWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.0 | +2.0 | 84% | 81% | 14% | 3% | 4/4, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Jahmyr GibbsRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.6 | −5.1 | 70% | 71% | 15% | 6% | 20 car, 68 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Isaac TeSlaaWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +5.8 | 92% | 97% | 7% | 20% | 2/2, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Josh JacobsRB · Committee Back | 10.1 | −0.8 | 54% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 17 car, 83 yd · 1/1, 8 yd |
| Tom KennedyWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.6 | +1.6 | 65% | 74% | 15% | 19% | 4/4, 36 yd |
| Luke MusgraveTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.1 | 59% | 47% | 3% | 6% | 1/1, 23 yd |
| Chris BrooksRB | 2.9 | −0.1 | 29% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 2/2, 9 yd |
| Bo MeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | −1.5 | 17% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 2 car, 15 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.2 | 24% | 29% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Emanuel WilsonRB | 1.4 | −0.4 | 19% | 16% | 0% | — | 4 car, 14 yd |
| Ross DwelleyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.3 | −7.1 | 75% | 65% | 11% | 1% | 1/3, 3 yd |
| Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sione VakiRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| John FitzPatrickTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.3 | 24% | 22% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Josh WhyleTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.5 | 51% | 59% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Malik HeathWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 17% | 19% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(14:25) 10-J.Love pass deep left to 13-D.Wicks for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:25 · Packers · 4th & 3 at DET 22 · gained 22 · +4.50 EP · +14.8% win probability
151 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 151 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
9 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 77 yards from the GB 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Packers3
Lions0How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Packers9Lions0Packers10Lions0Packers10Lions6Packers10Lions7Packers16Lions7Packers17Lions7How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, caught in traffic.
Packers17Lions13Packers17Lions14How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Packers23Lions14Packers24Lions14Packers24Lions20Packers24Lions21Packers30Lions21Packers31Lions21How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, dropped.
Packers31Lions24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Packers at Lions, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 18/30 | 234 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +16.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dontayvion Wicks | 6 | 7 | 94 | 2 | 24% | +11.4 |
| Christian Watson | 4 | 10 | 80 | 1 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah McDuffie | 6 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgerrin Cooper |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/26 | 256 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +9.5 |
| David Montgomery | 0/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_GB_DET
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Lions closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 55 — over by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 14 |
| 3.5 |
| 0 |
| +0.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Jordan Love | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Christian Watson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.2 |
| 34% |
| +3.4 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 3% | +1.9 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 14% | +3.8 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Bo Melton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| John FitzPatrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| Josh Whyle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −1.2 |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Micah Parsons | 3 | 4 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Keisean Nixon | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devonte Wyatt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashan Gary | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 20 | 68 | 3.4 | 0 | −8.0 |
| David Montgomery | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 1 | +1.1 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | 7 | 10 | 144 | 1 | 37% | +7.1 |
| Tom Kennedy | 4 | 4 | 36 | 0 | 15% | +4.5 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 | 7% | +3.2 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 15% | +1.4 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 7% | +1.0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11% | −2.0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Branch | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Alex Anzalone | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Campbell | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Amik Robertson | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Terrion Arnold | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Harper | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Khalil Dorsey | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Reed | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
