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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q4 1:49, 4th and 9, on Daniel Jones — 20.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, Texans +20.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:49 · 4th and 9
Daniel Jones
Texans
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Colts at 3 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Texans at 1 giveaway.
Coltsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Texans won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Colts at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.12 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 2.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Nico Collins's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 12:44 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Alec Pierce19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Daniel Jones · kick no good, hit left upright+63–67 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Texanscategory by categoryColts
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 71 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Colts’s 51 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Texans 5, Colts 4.
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
HOU's blitz rate sent, 42.9%, is past their previous high of 34.4% in week 1 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
IND's pass rate over expected, −11.4 pts, is past their previous low of −6.9 pts in week 10 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
51 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
Over Expected room →Texans-2.0 ptsright on their number · −0.9 vs their -1.1 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 71 snaps
Colts-11.4 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.8 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 30% to 81%
Tendencies room →Texans50.0%right on their number · −4.8 vs their 54.8%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 56 early downs
Colts51.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 56.3%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 39 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 53%
Tendencies room →Texans27.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±6.9 week to week (+0.61× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Colts39.3%leaned — faked the run · +11.2 vs their 28.1%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -44% to 138%
Fourth Down room →Texans50.0%leaned — went for it · +26.2 vs their 23.8%, and they swing ±24.9 week to week (+1.05× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Colts—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 47.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 59%
Tendencies room →Texans42.9%off script — sent pressure · +20.9 vs their 21.9%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+2.20× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Colts29.7%right on their number · −2.3 vs their 32.0%, and they swing ±10.4 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 32%
Tendencies room →Texans21.4%leaned — got home · +6.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Colts13.5%right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
HOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 42.9%, 20.9 points above their season mean of 21.9% and 2.2 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
22/35, 276 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
7.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Passing · IND
14/27, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.6 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Alec Pierce banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico CollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 21.5 | −0.6 | 75% | 78% | 31% | 51% | 1 car, 7 yd, 1 TD · 5/10, 98 yd |
| Alec PierceWR · Featured Receiver | 17.8 | +6.5 | 96% | 100% | 20% | 48% | 4/5, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Daniel JonesQB · Starter QB | 16.1 | +5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/27, 201 yd, 2 TD · 1 car, 1 yd |
| Jonathan TaylorRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.1 | −2.8 | 98% | 96% | 20% | 0% | 21 car, 85 yd · 3/5, 36 yd |
| Dalton SchultzTE · Alpha Receiver | 12.5 | −1.1 | 72% | 92% | 25% | 10% | 7/8, 55 yd |
| Jayden HigginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +3.9 | 58% | 65% | 16% | 13% | 5/5, 65 yd |
| Tyler WarrenTE · Rotational Receiver | 11.2 | +3.3 | 87% | 93% | 16% | 6% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/4, 22 yd, 1 TD |
| Nick ChubbRB | 9.4 | +2.9 | 34% | 35% | 0% | — | 9 car, 34 yd, 1 TD |
| C.J. StroudQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | −10.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/35, 276 yd, 1 INT · 1 car, 0 yd |
| Woody MarksRB · Committee Back | 7.7 | −2.6 | 54% | 54% | 3% | 0% | 19 car, 64 yd · 1/1, 3 yd |
| Josh DownsWR · Featured Receiver | 6.4 | −1.2 | 57% | 64% | 24% | 23% | 2/6, 44 yd |
| Xavier HutchinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | −5.2 | 55% | 54% | 16% | 22% | 2/5, 39 yd |
| Cade StoverTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | −2.1 | 41% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 4 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 16 yd |
| Michael PittmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.3 | −4.0 | 83% | 86% | 16% | 23% | 1/4, 13 yd |
| Andrew OgletreeTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | 0.0 | 22% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jaylin NoelWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 24% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dare OgunbowaleRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ameer AbdullahRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Anthony GouldWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Laquon TreadwellWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tyler GoodsonRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
Q4 1:49 · Colts · 4th & 9 at HOU 31 · gained nothing · -3.12 EP · −19.7% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 168 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 79 yards from the IND 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans3
Colts0How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
Texans3Colts6Texans9Colts6Texans10Colts6Texans13Colts6How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Texans13Colts12Texans13Colts13How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A trick play, nobody in motion.
Texans19Colts13Texans20Colts13Texans20Colts16How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Texans at Colts, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/35 | 276 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 | −0.7 |
| Nico Collins |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 31% | +6.2 |
| Jayden Higgins | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 16% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Bryant |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/27 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_HOU_IND
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 36 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1 |
| 7 |
| 7.0 |
| 1 |
| +1.5 |
| Cade Stover | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | −4.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −1.2 |
| +5.9 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 25% | +1.3 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16% | +0.0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | −0.4 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.8 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 | −1.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 20% | +6.5 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 24% | +0.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 20% | −0.2 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16% | +0.8 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | −3.4 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | +0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Cross | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Gallimore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
