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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium
20
16
Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, HOU +20% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
How the points landed
(7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 0(8:46) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 6(5:13) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — IND 6(6:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 13 — IND 6(2:55) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 13 — IND 13(12:44) (Shotgun) 12-N.Collins left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 20 — IND 13(8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — IND 16Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Texans | Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 51 |
| Total yards | 364 (edge) | 281 |
| Yards per play | 5.1 | 5.5 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.01 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Success rate | 42% (edge) | 37% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.21 (edge) | 0.02 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 (edge) | -0.28 |
| Third downs | 6/13 (edge) | 3/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 | 7 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 (edge) | 14 |
| Sacks taken | 2 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
22/35, 276 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
7.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected
Passing · IND
14/27, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
0.6 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | IND 35 | 5 | 2 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 32 | 13 | 64 | 6:12 | Field goal +3 | |
| 3 | IND | IND 27 | 5 | 0 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 32 | 4 | 11 | 2:46 | Punt | |
| 5 | IND | IND 23 | 6 | 18 | 2:12 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 17 | 4 | 16 | 1:24 | Punt | |
| 7 | IND | IND 37 | 7 | 54 | 4:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 11 | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | Interception | |
| 9 | IND | HOU 42 | 4 | 42 | 1:24 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 33 | 10 | 62 | 3:33 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 11 | IND | IND 23 | 8 | 35 | 3:17 | Punt | |
| 12 | HOU | HOU 20 | 7 | 33 | 1:51 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 27 | 15 | 48 | 8:13 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | IND | IND 21 | 11 | 57 | 3:56 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 35 | 14 | 62 | 5:13 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | IND | IND 35 | 9 | 26 | 3:58 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | HOU | HOU 30 | 8 | 53 | 3:55 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | IND | IND 17 | 8 | 47 | 3:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 32 | 5 | 15 | 1:45 | End of game |
7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 64 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 22/35 | 276 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 7.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 64 | 3.4 | 0 | -2.0 |
| Nick Chubb | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Nico Collins | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 1 | 1.5 |
| Cade Stover | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 | -4.3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 5 | 10 | 98 | 0 | 31% | 6.2 |
| Jayden Higgins | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 16% | 5.9 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azeez Al-Shaair | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Calen Bullock | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Myles Bryant | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry To'oTo'o |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 14/27 | 201 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 36 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.3 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 5 | 39 | 0 | 16% | 0.0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | 0.6 |
| Woody Marks | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3% | -0.4 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.8 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| E.J. Speed | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Togiai | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Pitre | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Will Anderson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kamari Lassiter | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheldon Rankins | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -1.8 |
| Daniel Jones | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Tyler Warren | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | -4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 5 | 78 | 1 | 20% | 6.5 |
| Josh Downs | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 | 24% | 0.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 | 20% | -0.2 |
| Tyler Warren | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 16% | 0.8 |
| Michael Pittman | 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 16% | -3.4 |
| Andrew Ogletree | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 4% | 0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Franklin | 5 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Germaine Pratt | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nick Cross | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwity Paye | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Camryn Bynum | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Charvarius Ward | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore II | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Neville Gallimore | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mekhi Blackmon | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Adetomiwa Adebawore | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
