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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

20

Indianapolis Colts

16

IND -3 upsetU 44.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 20–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:49, HOU +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3IND ↑HOU ↓
Q4 · 1:49HOU 20 — IND 16IND ball · 4th & 9HOU 69%

(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 1:49HOU +20% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Pittman [51-W.Anderson].
  2. Q3 · 3:00IND +17% win prob(3:00) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right to 14-A.Pierce. PENALTY on HOU-2-C.Bullock, Defensive Pass Interference, 32 yards, enforced at HOU 44 - No Play.
  3. Q4 · 4:53HOU +13% win prob(4:53) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to 87-C.Stover. 87-C.Stover left guard to IND 17 for no gain (44-Z.Franklin; 92-N.Gallimore). (Virtual Measurement).
  4. Q2 · 10:19HOU +13% win prob(10:19) Direct snap to 84-T.Warren. 84-T.Warren FUMBLES (Aborted) at HOU 10, recovered by IND-28-J.Taylor at HOU 11. 28-J.Taylor to HOU 11 for no gain (95-D.Barnett, 4-K.Lassiter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:58HOU Field goal

    (7:58) 15-K.Fairbairn 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 0
  2. Q2 · 8:46IND Touchdown

    (8:46) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass deep left to 14-A.Pierce for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: HOU 3 — IND 6
  3. Q2 · 5:13HOU Touchdown

    (5:13) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 21-N.Chubb left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 10 — IND 6
  4. Q3 · 6:52HOU Field goal

    (6:52) 15-K.Fairbairn 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — IND 6
  5. Q3 · 2:55IND Touchdown

    (2:55) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 84-T.Warren for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 13 — IND 13
  6. Q4 · 12:44HOU Touchdown

    (12:44) (Shotgun) 12-N.Collins left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — IND 13
  7. Q4 · 8:44IND Field goal

    (8:44) 12-M.Badgley 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: HOU 20 — IND 16

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricTexansColts
Offensive plays7151
Total yards364 (edge)281
Yards per play5.15.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.01 (edge)-0.12
Success rate42% (edge)37%
Dropback rate52%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.28
Third downs6/13 (edge)3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)67 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps21 (edge)14
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

22/35, 276 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

7.6 expected points added · +6.0% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Daniel JonesQB

14/27, 201 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · -8.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 85 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

19 att, 64 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

5/10 for 98 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

4/5 for 78 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 35520:53Punt
2HOUHOU 3213646:12Field goal +3
3INDIND 27502:21Punt
4HOUHOU 324112:46Punt
5INDIND 236182:12Punt
6HOUHOU 174161:24Punt
7INDIND 377544:01Turnover on downs
8HOUHOU 11100:06Interception
9INDHOU 424421:24Touchdown +6
10HOUHOU 3310623:33Touchdown +7
11INDIND 238353:17Punt
12HOUHOU 207331:51Turnover on downs
13HOUHOU 2715488:13Field goal +3
14INDIND 2111573:56Touchdown +7
15HOUHOU 3514625:13Touchdown +7
16INDIND 359263:58Field goal +3
17HOUHOU 308533:55Turnover on downs
18INDIND 178473:00Turnover on downs
19HOUHOU 325151:45End of game

7 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 64 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud22/352760127.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Woody Marks19643.40-2.0
Nick Chubb9343.81-0.7
Nico Collins177.011.5
Cade Stover430.80-4.3
C.J. Stroud100.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins51098031%6.2
Jayden Higgins5565016%5.9
Dalton Schultz7855025%1.3
Xavier Hutchinson2539016%0.0
Cade Stover221606%0.6
Woody Marks11303%-0.4
Jaylin Noel01003%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair440.000
Calen Bullock430.001
Myles Bryant320.000
Henry To'oTo'o230.000
Tommy Togiai130.000
E.J. Speed220.000
Will Anderson Jr.120.000
Jalen Pitre120.002
Kamari Lassiter120.000
Sheldon Rankins201.000

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Daniel Jones14/272012010.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor21854.00-1.8
Daniel Jones111.00-0.6
Tyler Warren100.00-4.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce4578120%6.5
Josh Downs2644024%0.3
Jonathan Taylor3536020%-0.2
Tyler Warren3422116%0.8
Michael Pittman1413016%-3.4
Andrew Ogletree11804%0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin580.000
Germaine Pratt450.001
Nick Cross430.000
Kwity Paye240.000
Camryn Bynum420.011
Kenny Moore II230.000
Charvarius Ward320.000
Mekhi Blackmon310.001
Neville Gallimore130.000
Adetomiwa Adebawore131.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -3
Closing total
44.5
HOU moneyline
+142
IND moneyline
-170

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 36 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
HOU 10 days · IND 7 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Shane Steichen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.