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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Nissan Stadium

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

25

Tennessee Titans

3

JAX -6 ✓U 42.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 25–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:25, TEN +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TENJAX
Q1 · 3:25JAX 0TEN 3JAX ball · 1st & 10JAX 66%

(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to TEN 6 for 50 yards (33-C.Gray).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 3:25TEN +9% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 3-J.Meyers to TEN 6 for 50 yards (33-C.Gray).
  2. Q1 · 4:09TEN +8% win prob(4:09) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 11-P.Washington to JAX 44 for 26 yards (23-K.Winston; 26-M.Harris).
  3. Q1 · 12:36JAX +7% win prob(12:36) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at JAX 37 for -10 yards (23-K.Winston).
  4. Q1 · 1:06TEN +6% win prob(1:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 5:08TEN Field goal

    (5:08) 6-J.Slye 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

    Score after this play: JAX 0TEN 3
  2. Q1 · 1:06JAX Touchdown

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 3-J.Meyers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 7TEN 3
  3. Q2 · 15:00JAX Touchdown

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep middle to 85-B.Strange for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: JAX 15TEN 3
  4. Q2 · 0:00JAX Field goal

    (:00) 39-C.Little 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-52-D.Hamilton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: JAX 18TEN 3
  5. Q3 · 6:49JAX Touchdown

    (6:49) 33-B.Tuten up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: JAX 25TEN 3

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJaguarsTitans
Offensive plays5455
Total yards275 (edge)188
Yards per play5.1 (edge)3.4
Expected points added / play-0.01 (edge)-0.42
Success rate39% (edge)25%
Dropback rate59%76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.15 (edge)-0.55
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.24-0.02 (edge)
Third downs3/12 (edge)2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps16 (edge)9
Sacks taken33
Turnovers0 (edge)2

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.42.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

16/27, 229 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

4.9 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Cam WardQB

24/38, 141 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-20.4 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Tony PollardRB

10 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

12 att, 28 yds, 0 TD

-4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Jakobi MeyersWR

6/6 for 90 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Brenton StrangeTE

3/4 for 45 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 2.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 347223:56Punt
2TENTEN 2011705:58Field goal +3
3JAXJAX 169844:02Touchdown +7
4TEN100:06Fumble
5JAXTEN 353351:04Touchdown +8
6TENTEN 255-52:26Punt
7JAXJAX 29451:32Punt
8TENTEN 28471:44Punt
9JAXJAX 20432:05Punt
10TENTEN 41471:48Punt
11JAXJAX 20402:47Punt
12TENJAX 427262:12Turnover on downs
13JAXJAX 214370:20Field goal +3
14TENTEN 19591:39Punt
15JAXJAX 2916566:36Touchdown +7
16TENTEN 327173:38Punt
17JAXJAX 237264:01Punt
18TENJAX 38440:51Turnover on downs
19JAXJAX 34451:46Punt
20TENTEN 359124:41Turnover on downs
21JAXJAX 48421:28Punt
22TENTEN 58413:31Fumble
23JAXTEN 46301:49End of game

5 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 84 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence16/272292034.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne12282.30-4.2
Trevor Lawrence3258.302.4
Bhayshul Tuten8172.11-3.1
Jakobi Meyers133.00-0.3
Nick Mullens3-3-1.00-2.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jakobi Meyers6690124%8.1
Brenton Strange3445116%2.1
Brian Thomas Jr.2328012%3.1
Parker Washington1326012%0.6
Quintin Morris121408%0.1
Travis Etienne111304%0.9
Tim Patrick111104%1.1
Bhayshul Tuten11204%-0.5
Austin Trammell040016%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd530.000
Montaric Brown610.000
Danny Striggow330.000
Foye Oluokun510.000
Antonio Johnson220.000
Jarrian Jones300.000
Josh Hines-Allen302.000
Andrew Wingard120.002
Ventrell Miller110.000
Ross Matiscik110.000

Tennessee Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Cam Ward24/38141003-20.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tony Pollard10606.001.8
Cam Ward177.001.5
Chimere Dike111.00-0.4
Tyjae Spears2-1-0.50-1.7

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chig Okonkwo4529014%-0.8
Tyjae Spears6625017%0.7
Gunnar Helm6723020%-4.1
Van Jefferson3420011%-0.5
Xavier Restrepo111503%1.4
James Proche111303%0.4
Chimere Dike148011%-2.2
Elic Ayomanor155014%-5.1
Tony Pollard12306%-7.2

Defense (top contributors)

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -6
Closing total
42.5
JAX moneyline
-270
TEN moneyline
+220

Jaguars closed -6 and covered, winning by 22.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 28 — under by 14.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
38°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
JAX 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches
Liam Coen vs Brian Callahan

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.