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live · 12s tick · as of 12:21 PM ET · 12 min ago · 1 live · 12 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Thu, Nov 27, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q4 13:21, 3rd and 8, on George Pickens — 18.2 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Dallas Cowboys 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:21, Cowboys +18.2% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:21 · 3rd and 8
George Pickens
Cowboys
(13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
18.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 5 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Chiefs at 5 of 13 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 1 giveaway.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
(13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Javonte Williams's 3-yard touchdown catch with 11:21 left in the 4th put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Javonte Williams3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Dak Prescott · two-point goodLead never changed again+821–2810 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Chiefscategory by categoryCowboys
Cowboys ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 60 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 63 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 4, Cowboys 5.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
KC's blitz rate sent, 52.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.5 points clear of the next team along.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.4 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
KC's play-action rate, 5.0%, is past their previous low of 7.5% in week 7 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
DAL's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.7 pts in week 12 against +4.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
62 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
Over Expected room →Chiefs-0.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 60 snaps
Cowboys4.9 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.8 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 36% to 81%
Tendencies room →Chiefs61.4%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 62.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 44 early downs
Cowboys50.0%inside their normal wobble · −5.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.71× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Chiefs5.0%leaned — dropped back clean · −10.6 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.34× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys32.5%inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Chiefs60.0%right on their number · +4.0 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±16.1 week to week (+0.25× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys25.0%leaned — took the kick · −27.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (−1.44× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 71%
Tendencies room →Chiefs52.5%leaned — sent pressure · +12.8 vs their 39.7%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys25.0%right on their number · −2.2 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.18× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 36%
Tendencies room →Chiefs15.0%right on their number · −2.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys22.5%inside their normal wobble · +6.0 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 27.9 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 1.4 times their own 19.4-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
27/39, 320 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
15.6 expected points added · +4.8% completion over expected
Passing · KC
23/34, 261 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
14.2 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Malik Davis banked 9.3 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick MahomesQB · Starter QB | 29.4 | +6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/34, 261 yd, 4 TD · 3 car, 30 yd |
| Rashee RiceWR · Alpha Receiver | 29.4 | +0.7 | 89% | 93% | 38% | 31% | 1 car, 2 yd · 8/12, 92 yd, 2 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Featured Receiver | 24.2 | +6.6 | 81% | 90% | 24% | 40% | 7/9, 112 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 20.6 | +1.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 27/39, 320 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, -2 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.0 | +0.5 | 78% | 80% | 8% | 0% | 17 car, 59 yd · 3/3, 21 yd, 1 TD |
| George PickensWR · Alpha Receiver | 16.8 | −5.0 | 74% | 88% | 35% | 49% | 6/13, 88 yd |
| Travis KelceTE · Featured Receiver | 15.5 | +1.7 | 91% | 93% | 19% | 27% | 5/6, 45 yd, 1 TD |
| Xavier WorthyWR · Featured Receiver | 11.4 | −1.1 | 88% | 85% | 19% | 31% | 2 car, 13 yd · 4/6, 61 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 10.7 | +9.3 | 12% | 8% | 0% | — | 3 car, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Marquise BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.0 | +5.8 | 44% | 43% | 6% | 8% | 2/2, 20 yd, 1 TD |
| Kareem HuntRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.0 | −4.5 | 64% | 63% | 6% | 0% | 14 car, 58 yd · 1/2, 22 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | −3.1 | 71% | 83% | 16% | 7% | 5/6, 36 yd |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.1 | +3.2 | 36% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 3 car, 33 yd · 2/2, 28 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | +1.2 | 38% | 43% | 8% | 8% | 3/3, 34 yd |
| Isiah PachecoRB | 5.3 | +0.9 | 30% | 33% | 6% | 2% | 3 car, 16 yd · 2/2, 17 yd |
| Jared WileyTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | −0.1 | 14% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −0.5 | 32% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 1 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Jalen TolbertWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brashard SmithRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.0 | 33% | 33% | 3% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyquan ThorntonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 24% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Nikko RemigioWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens to KC 6 for 39 yards (22-T.McDuffie).
Q4 13:21 · Cowboys · 3rd & 8 at KC 45 · gained 39 · +3.99 EP · +17.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 178 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 85 yards from the DAL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Chiefs6
Cowboys0Chiefs7Cowboys0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Chiefs7Cowboys6Chiefs7Cowboys7Chiefs13Cowboys7Chiefs14Cowboys7Chiefs14Cowboys10How the play was built
Three in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Chiefs14Cowboys16Chiefs14Cowboys17Chiefs14Cowboys20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Chiefs20Cowboys20Chiefs21Cowboys20How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Chiefs21Cowboys26Chiefs21Cowboys28Chiefs21Cowboys31How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Chiefs27Cowboys31Chiefs28Cowboys31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Chiefs at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 23/34 | 261 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +14.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 | −3.1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 | +3.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | 8 | 12 | 92 | 2 | 38% | +3.6 |
| Xavier Worthy | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 | 19% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bolton | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Chamarri Conner | 7 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent McDuffie |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 27/39 | 320 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +15.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_KC_DAL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Chiefs closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53.5; the game landed 59 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
| 3 |
| 16 |
| 5.3 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| Xavier Worthy | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Rashee Rice | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| +3.0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 | 19% | +5.5 |
| Kareem Hunt | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 6% | +2.0 |
| Marquise Brown | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 6% | +3.2 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | −0.3 |
| Jared Wiley | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | +2.6 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.3 |
| 4 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jaylen Watson | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaden Hicks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Drue Tranquill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Edwards | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ashton Gillotte | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leo Chenal | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javonte Williams | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 | −5.5 |
| Malik Davis | 3 | 47 | 15.7 | 1 | +3.0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | −2.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 9 | 112 | 1 | 24% | +8.8 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 13 | 88 | 0 | 35% | −2.4 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 6 | 36 | 0 | 16% | +4.6 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +1.7 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 | 5% | +1.9 |
| Javonte Williams | 3 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 8% | +2.9 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarvion Overshown | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan Wilson | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Williams | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reddy Steward | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
