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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Bank of America Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q4 6:43, 4th and 2, on Tetairoa McMillan — 30.3 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Carolina Panthers 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 6:43, Panthers +30.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 6:43 · 4th and 2
Tetairoa McMillan
Panthers
(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
30.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Panthers won this one — no giveaways, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams owned this one and still lost it — 60% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — +0.53 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.03 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.63 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.12 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 24.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 40 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tetairoa McMillan's 43-yard touchdown catch with 6:43 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Tetairoa McMillan43-yd TD catch43-yard touchdown catchfrom Bryce YoungLead never changed again+728–319 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ramscategory by categoryPanthers
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.63 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 50 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Panthers’s 59 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Rams 6, Panthers 4.
Rams outgained Panthers 380-362 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CAR's pass rate over expected, −23.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.1 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
LA's play-action rate, 53.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 8.9 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
CAR's early-down pass rate, 31.0%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.6 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Rams2.5 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their 3.2 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 50 snaps
Panthers-23.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −17.7 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−1.93× that swing) · 59 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 88%
Tendencies room →Rams55.6%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 55.5%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 45 early downs
Panthers31.0%leaned — ran early · −22.0 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 61%
Tendencies room →Rams53.3%leaned — faked the run · +17.9 vs their 35.4%, and they swing ±9.6 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Panthers16.7%inside their normal wobble · −6.1 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.61× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Rams—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 49.3%.
Panthers75.0%right on their number · +7.0 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 54%
Tendencies room →Rams16.7%inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Panthers26.7%right on their number · −1.7 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.19× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 41%
Tendencies room →Rams8.3%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Panthers6.7%right on their number · −2.7 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
CAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -23.6 pts, 17.7 points below their season mean of -5.9 pts and 1.9 times their own 9.1-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
18/28, 243 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
-3.5 expected points added · +3.4% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
15/20, 206 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
14.3 expected points added · +8.8% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Bryce Young banked 14.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 22.5 | +14.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/20, 206 yd, 3 TD · 5 car, 23 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB · Committee Back | 20.4 | +9.0 | 59% | 75% | 10% | 0% | 17 car, 83 yd · 2/2, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen CokerWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.4 | +7.1 | 55% | 79% | 30% | 62% | 4/6, 74 yd, 1 TD |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.3 | +7.4 | 73% | 92% | 10% | 30% | 1/2, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −1.7 | 42% | 25% | 10% | 0% | 18 car, 58 yd · 2/2, 21 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.0 | +0.8 | 53% | 29% | 15% | 0% | 3/3, 20 yd |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 1.4 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.2 | −1.5 | 56% | 33% | 10% | 3% | 1/2, 2 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −1.9 | 67% | 83% | 10% | 17% | 1/2, 1 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 48% | 63% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 27% | 8% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:43) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 6:43 · Panthers · 4th & 2 at LA 43 · gained 43 · +6.10 EP · +32.7% win probability
142 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 152 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 141 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 89 yards from the LA 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
152 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
152 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Rams6
Panthers0Rams7Panthers0How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
Rams7Panthers6Rams7Panthers7How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Rams7Panthers13Rams7Panthers14Rams13Panthers14Rams14Panthers14Rams14Panthers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams20Panthers17Rams21Panthers17How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Rams21Panthers23Rams21Panthers24How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
Rams27Panthers24Rams28Panthers24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Rams28Panthers30Rams28Panthers31How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Rams at Panthers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/28 | 243 | 2 | 2 | 2 | −3.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Corum | 7 | 81 | 11.6 | 1 | +6.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 1 | +4.2 |
| Matthew Stafford |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Smith | 3 | 3 | 82 | 0 | 11% | +5.4 |
| Puka Nacua | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 | 33% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Young | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Landman | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Omar Speights |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/20 | 206 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +14.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_LA_CAR
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -10 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 59 — over by 14.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| -1 |
| -1.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.0 |
| −2.7 |
| Davante Adams | 4 | 5 | 58 | 2 | 19% | +7.1 |
| Colby Parkinson | 4 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 19% | −3.8 |
| Davis Allen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Kyren Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Jordan Whittington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Terrance Ferguson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −0.9 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Kamren Kinchens | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Braden Fiske | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylen McCollough | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kobie Turner | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jared Verse | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Poona Ford | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 0 | +3.6 |
| Rico Dowdle | 18 | 58 | 3.2 | 0 | −4.7 |
| Bryce Young | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 0 | +0.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 6 | 74 | 1 | 30% | +7.6 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 1 | 2 | 43 | 1 | 10% | +5.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 10% | +4.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 10% | +0.7 |
| Mitchell Evans | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 15% | +1.1 |
| Trevor Etienne | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5% | −0.0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10% | −2.1 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10% | −0.8 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lathan Ransom | 2 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Scott | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Trevin Wallace | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demani Richardson | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Robert Rochell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Incoom | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
