For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Raiders142 of 156 plays carry both curves
(14:13) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +11.4 for ChargersExpected points +4.96 for ChargersThe model had Raiders 19 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 14:13LAC +11% win prob(14:13) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:54LAC +8% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-B.Bowers for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:37LV +6% win prob(6:37) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left guard to LV 18 for no gain (45-D.White; 69-A.Butler).
2nd · 8:39LV +5% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 36-K.Kelly at LV 2. 36-K.Kelly ran ob at LV 2 for no gain.
2nd · 7:54LV +4% win prob(7:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left intended for 10-D.Thornton INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (26-D.Jackson) at LV 27. 23-T.Jefferson ran ob at LV 27 for no gain.
3rd · 12:03LV +4% win prob(12:03) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kimani Vidal's 59-yard rushing touchdown with 14:13 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.75 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.33Raiders: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.14Chargers: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Raiders: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.27Chargers: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.75Raiders: −0.75 expected points added per play
+0.04Chargers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 45 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Chargers’s 65 at 43%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Chargers 6.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs -0.33.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 28.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 6.0 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 26.7% in week 4.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
LAC's early-down pass rate, 31.9%, is past their previous low of 43.9% in week 8 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.3 points.
low through week 13Against their seasonOver Expected
LAC's pass rate over expected, −11.5 pts, is past their previous low of −6.5 pts in week 5 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +0.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Chargers28.6%
leaned — got home · +13.4 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.83× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 31.9%, 26.7 points below their season mean of 58.6% and 2.2 times their own 12.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%48 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%48 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%48 snaps
70Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%48 snaps
7Geno SmithQB · Every snap100%48 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time98%47 snaps
2Ashton JeantyRB · Full-time96%46 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Full-time96%46 snaps
56Atonio MafiG · Heavy rotation65%31 snaps
80Ian ThomasTE · Heavy rotation56%27 snaps
18Jack BechWR · Heavy rotation56%27 snaps
17Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation52%25 snaps
76Caleb RogersG · Rotational35%17 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Rotational29%14 snaps
46Carter RunyonTE · Situational12%6 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational4%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jordan MeredithCDarnay HolmesCBTonka HemingwayDTJamin DavisOLBAidan O'ConnellQBZamir WhiteRBMichael MayerTE
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Vidal left+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:13) (Shotgun) 30-K.Vidal left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 14:13 · Chargers · 3rd & 2 at LAC 41 · gained 59 · +4.96 EP · +18.5% win probability
140 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 140 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 151. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 91 yards from the LAC 7 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
497
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1644%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2755%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.0675%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.490%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1217%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-1.6640%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Chargers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 37 to the Raiders 42
Raiders0Chargers6
Raiders0Chargers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Raiders 10
Punt8 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Chargers 44
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Chargers 16
2nd quarter40 plays
The period ended13 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Raiders 1
Intercepted2 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Raiders 3
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 18
Raiders6Chargers7
Raiders7Chargers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Raiders 18 to the Chargers 5
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 43
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Raiders7Chargers13
Raiders7Chargers14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Chargers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 44
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 14 to the Chargers 19
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 35
Raiders7Chargers20
Raiders7Chargers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Raiders 7
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Raiders 43
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Raiders7Chargers24
Field goal2 plays
Raiders13Chargers24
Raiders14Chargers24
Touchdown17 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Chargers 1
Raiders14Chargers30
Raiders14Chargers31
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Raiders 2
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -10
Closing total
40.5
Raiders moneyline
+440
Chargers moneyline
-600
Chargers closed -10 and covered, winning by 17.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 45 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Chargers 14 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Jim Harbaugh
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 13:11
LV +3% win prob
(13:11) 30-K.Vidal left tackle to LAC 30 for 4 yards (95-L.Fotu; 45-D.White).
1st · 14:14LV +3% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 34 for -8 yards (sack split by 52-K.Mack and 91-D.Hand). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [91-D.Hand], and recovers at LV 34.
