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live · 12s tick · as of 12:25 PM ET · 9 min ago · 1 live · 12 to play · 1 final
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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Lumen Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q2 3:14, 4th and 1, on Ernest Jones — 14.6 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 26–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 3:14, Seahawks +14.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 3:14 · 4th and 1
Ernest Jones
Seahawks
(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 5 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — -0.18 expected points per snap, against Vikings at -0.70 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.28 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.92 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Vikings at 22% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 11.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jason Myers's 33-yard field goal with 7:12 left in the 2nd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Jason Myers33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+30–36 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categorySeahawks
Seahawks ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.92 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 49 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 62 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Seahawks 2.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.18 expected points added per play vs -0.70.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 37.0% in week 12 against 13.3% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 13 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings1.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 49 snaps
Seahawks-7.5 ptsright on their number · −0.8 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 83%
Tendencies room →Vikings59.5%right on their number · +4.9 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 37 early downs
Seahawks43.5%right on their number · −4.3 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 46 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 47%
Tendencies room →Vikings20.6%inside their normal wobble · −5.4 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Seahawks13.3%leaned — dropped back clean · −12.2 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 95%
Fourth Down room →Vikings33.3%right on their number · +5.9 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Seahawks20.0%right on their number · −9.4 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±19.5 week to week (−0.48× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 77%
Tendencies room →Vikings50.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Seahawks32.4%inside their normal wobble · +7.3 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 39%
Tendencies room →Vikings16.7%right on their number · −2.8 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.36× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Seahawks17.6%right on their number · +1.6 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
SEA's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 13.3%, 12.2 points below their season mean of 25.5% and 1.5 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Seattle Seahawks
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
14/26, 128 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
-8.5 expected points added · -15.9% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
19/30, 126 yds, 0 TD, 4 INT
-29.1 expected points added · -4.2% completion over expected
Receiving · MIN
5/10 for 36 yds, 0 TD
34% of team targets · -2.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
T.J. Hockenson banked 3.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 11.9 | +3.4 | 79% | 94% | 21% | 15% | 6/6, 59 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Committee Back | 11.2 | +1.1 | 39% | 33% | 0% | — | 14 car, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 10.4 | −3.0 | 55% | 63% | 17% | 0% | 13 car, 56 yd · 3/4, 18 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.6 | −6.3 | 92% | 97% | 34% | 62% | 5/10, 36 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Featured Receiver | 7.7 | −0.2 | 85% | 87% | 22% | 13% | 1 car, 2 yd · 4/5, 35 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 5.8 | +2.0 | 29% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 47 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.4 | −0.3 | 76% | 87% | 17% | 19% | 3/4, 24 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 4.5 | −3.2 | 37% | 38% | 14% | 0% | 6 car, 3 yd · 4/4, 22 yd |
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | −1.6 | 82% | 93% | 17% | 10% | 2/4, 23 yd |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 3.1 | −4.4 | 96% | — | 0% | — | 14/26, 128 yd |
| Zavier ScottRB | 3.1 | +0.4 | 19% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 3 car, 17 yd · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | +1.7 | 21% | 13% | 4% | 12% | 1/1, 21 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −2.1 | 48% | 63% | 13% | 16% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/3, 7 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Featured Receiver | 2.4 | −6.2 | 96% | 100% | 21% | 27% | 2/6, 4 yd |
| Myles GaskinRB | 0.6 | −0.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 69% | 74% | 3% | 13% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tai FeltonWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.6 | 37% | 40% | 9% | 46% | 0/2, 0 yd |
| Nick KallerupTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Max BrosmerQB · Starter QB | -3.1 | −11.3 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/30, 126 yd, 4 INT · 1 car, -1 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(3:14) 12-M.Brosmer pass short right INTERCEPTED by 13-E.Jones [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA 15. 13-E.Jones for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 3:14 · Vikings · 4th & 1 at SEA 4 · gained nothing · -10.72 EP · −29.2% win probability
144 snaps placed · 7 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 151 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 144 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 146. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 53 yards from the SEA 32 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
151 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
151 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings0
Seahawks3How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
Vikings0Seahawks9Vikings0Seahawks10Vikings0Seahawks13Vikings0Seahawks16Vikings0Seahawks19Vikings0Seahawks25Vikings0Seahawks26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Seahawks, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Brosmer | 19/30 | 126 | 0 | 4 | 4 | −29.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 | +0.0 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 | +0.1 |
| Aaron Jones |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 6 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 21% | +3.4 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 10 | 36 | 0 | 34% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Wilson | 8 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Cashman | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Allen |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 14/26 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 4 | −8.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_MIN_SEA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 26.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 26 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| 6 |
| 3 |
| 0.5 |
| 0 |
| −3.4 |
| Max Brosmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | +0.0 |
| −2.1 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 14% | −3.1 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 21% | −7.3 |
| Jordan Mason | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.5 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −3.7 |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 3 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 4 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Harrison Smith | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Byron Murphy | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.5 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Barner | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 22% | +4.5 |
| Cooper Kupp | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 | 17% | +0.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 17% | +1.1 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | +2.9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 17% | +0.7 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −3.4 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 7 | 5 | 0.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Drake Thomas | 2 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Emmanwori | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Patrick O'Connell | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy II | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Boye Mafe | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Coby Bryant | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ty Okada | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Lawrence | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
