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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
17
21
Miami Dolphins 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:35, NO +26% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
How the points landed
(11:27) 28-D.Achane right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 7(14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 10(6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 13(:02) 47-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 16(10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 8 — MIA 16(9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.
Score after this play: NO 8 — MIA 19(6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 11 — MIA 19(1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: NO 17 — MIA 21Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 71 | 56 |
| Total yards | 296 | 300 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.2 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.16 | -0.13 (edge) |
| Success rate | 45% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 65% | 50% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.20 (edge) | -0.35 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 | 0.08 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/12 | 4/12 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 0 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 1 (edge) |
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
26/38, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-11.2 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
12/23, 157 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 31 | 8 | 69 | 3:41 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | NO | NO 27 | 5 | 8 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 18 | 4 | 2 | 0:58 | Punt | |
| 4 | NO | NO 34 | 4 | 6 | 1:34 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 20 | 4 | -3 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 6 | NO | NO 44 | 4 | 7 | 2:06 | Punt | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 11 | 8 | 68 | 2:52 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | NO | NO 38 | 5 | 4 | 1:38 | Fumble | |
| 9 | MIA | NO 37 | 1 | 0 | 0:07 | Interception | |
| 10 | NO | NO 20 | 4 | 0 | 0:49 | Punt | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 49 | 10 | 44 | 5:28 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | NO | NO 28 | 12 | 38 | 4:59 | Interception | |
| 13 | MIA | NO 42 | 5 | 13 | 1:08 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | NO | NO 35 | 12 | 72 | 4:20 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 27 | 5 | 9 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 16 | NO | NO 10 | 9 | 42 | 4:12 | Punt | |
| 17 | MIA | MIA 4 | 8 | 39 | 4:31 | Punt | |
| 18 | NO | NO 12 | 4 | -2 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 47 | 9 | 38 | 3:45 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 26 | 11 | 37 | 3:31 | Field goal +3 | |
| 21 | MIA | MIA 35 | 7 | 21 | 3:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | NO | NO 45 | 8 | 65 | 1:46 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 23 | NO | NO 45 | 6 | 19 | 0:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 24 | MIA | MIA 35 | 2 | 0 | 0:29 | End of game |
8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 72 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 26/38 | 239 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -11.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | -1.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | 2.0 |
| Evan Hull | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | -1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 24% | 6.5 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 21% | -1.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Burgess | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas Sanker | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12/23 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 22 | 134 | 6.1 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Dolphins closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
| -1.8 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | 0.3 |
| Mason Tipton | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | -2.0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | 0.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | -0.1 |
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| 4.5 |
| Jaylen Wright | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 0.2 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | -2.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | -1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 15% | 2.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 30% | -2.3 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | 0.1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 10% | 2.0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | 0.3 |
| De'Von Achane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chop Robinson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
