The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:35 · 4th and 1
Tyler Shough
Dolphins
(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
26.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium
FinalSaintsNew Orleans17
BY 4final margin
DolphinsMiami21
New Orleans Saints 17 at Miami Dolphins 21. Final.
Dolphins -5.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓Dolphins closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Miami Dolphins 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:35, Dolphins +26.3% win probability on one snap.
The verdict · 2025 Week 13
Miami Dolphins 21, Saints 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:35, 4th and 1, on Tyler Shough — 26.3 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
- Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ4 1:1739-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.23.7pts
Devaughn VeleDolphinsQ4 1:17TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 14-D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
12.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 0 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.10 expected points per carry.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
- 2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
- 1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
- Drawn from the officially scored play-by-play, which lands usually within two hours of the final, or the next morning when its release runs late.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Saints164 of 175 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:35Saints 17 — Dolphins 21NO ball · 4th & 1MIA 72%
(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
Swing +26.3 for DolphinsExpected points +1.21 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 3 points higher than the market did.play 171
Highest-leverage plays
- 4th · 0:35NO +26% win prob(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
- 4th · 1:17NO +24% win prob39-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
- 4th · 1:17NO +13% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 14-D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
- 4th · 0:39NO +9% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.
- 4th · 1:02MIA +8% win prob(1:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 24-D.Neal to MIA 36 for 9 yards (25-T.Dodson).
- 2nd · 12:37NO +8% win prob(12:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at NO 41 for -10 yards (29-M.Fitzpatrick). FUMBLES (29-M.Fitzpatrick) [29-M.Fitzpatrick], RECOVERED by MIA-92-Z.Sieler at NO 42. 92-Z.Sieler to NO 37 for 5 yards (14-D.Vele).
- 1st · 12:16MIA +7% win prob(12:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa to MIA 47 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 47. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington to NO 29 for 19 yards (1-A.Taylor). ** Injury Update: NO-21-J.Reid has returned to the game.
- 2nd · 1:16NO +7% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left intended for 12-C.Olave INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Douglas at MIA 20. 26-R.Douglas to NO 42 for 38 yards (77-D.Radunz).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
De'Von Achane's 29-yard rushing touchdown with 11:27 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryDolphins
Saints34Dolphins
296Total yards300
4.2Yards per play5.4
45%Success rate41%
33%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
0Explosive plays6
20First downs16
4Sacks taken4
2Turnovers1
The read
Dolphins ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Saints: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.13Dolphins: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Saints: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.35Dolphins: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Saints: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 71 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 56 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Saints 2, Dolphins 3.
Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 25.0%, is past their previous low of 33.3% in week 1 — the lowest of their 7 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.6 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 14 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-5.6 ptsright on their number · −2.2 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 69 snaps
Dolphins-4.4 ptsright on their number · +1.2 vs their -5.6 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 56 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 90%
Tendencies room →Saints62.5%right on their number · +3.7 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 56 early downs
Dolphins37.2%leaned — ran early · −13.7 vs their 50.9%, and they swing ±12.9 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 43 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 63%
Tendencies room →Saints17.4%right on their number · −1.4 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.20× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Dolphins28.6%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 29.5%, and they swing ±13.2 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Saints25.0%leaned — took the kick · −23.8 vs their 48.8%, and they swing ±21.6 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Dolphins—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.1%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Saints35.7%right on their number · +3.1 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Dolphins43.5%inside their normal wobble · +6.7 vs their 36.8%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+0.79× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 27%
Tendencies room →Saints21.4%leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+1.38× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Dolphins15.2%inside their normal wobble · +2.4 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.4%, 7.1 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 1.4 times their own 5.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
- 71Kelvin Banks Jr.T · Every snap100%72 snaps
- 51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%72 snaps
- 77Dillon RadunzG · Every snap100%72 snaps
- 75Taliese FuagaT · Every snap100%72 snaps
- 79Luke FortnerC · Every snap100%72 snaps
- 6Tyler ShoughQB · Every snap99%71 snaps
- 14Devaughn VeleWR · Full-time88%63 snaps
- 12Chris OlaveWR · Full-time88%63 snaps
- 15Mason TiptonWR · Full-time85%61 snaps
- 24Devin NealRB · Full-time82%59 snaps
- 83Juwan JohnsonTE · Heavy rotation72%52 snaps
- 87Foster MoreauTE · Rotational38%27 snaps
- 34Evan HullRB · Situational18%13 snaps
- 7Taysom HillQB · Situational17%12 snaps
- 81Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Situational7%5 snaps
- 88Jack StollTE · Situational4%3 snaps
- 11Dante PettisWR · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Rejzohn WrightCBJohn RidgewayDTKhristian BoydDTUgo AmadiFSAlvin KamaraRBBarry WesleyTZaire Mitchell-PadenTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Spencer RattlerQB
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
- 52Patrick PaulT · Every snap100%60 snaps
- 72Jonah SavaiinaeaG · Every snap100%60 snaps
- 69Cole StrangeG · Every snap100%60 snaps
- 55Aaron BrewerC · Every snap100%60 snaps
- 1Tua TagovailoaQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
- 73Austin JacksonT · Full-time98%59 snaps
- 17Jaylen WaddleWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
- 28De'Von AchaneRB · Heavy rotation73%44 snaps
- 6Malik WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation60%36 snaps
- 89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation55%33 snaps
- 83Darren WallerTE · Rotational47%28 snaps
- 85Greg DulcichTE · Rotational37%22 snaps
- 64Daniel BrunskillC · Rotational32%19 snaps
- 31Ollie Gordon IIRB · Rotational27%16 snaps
- 30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational25%15 snaps
- 18Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Situational22%13 snaps
- 19Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Situational17%10 snaps
- 5Jaylen WrightRB · Situational10%6 snaps
- 82Dee EskridgeWR · Situational5%3 snaps
- 79Larry BoromT · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 5
A.J. GreenCBMatthew ButlerDTAndre Carter IIOLBQuinn EwersQBTahj WashingtonWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Zach WilsonQB
Who moved the needle
Top performers
Passing · NO
26/38, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-11.2 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected
Passing · MIA
12/23, 157 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.0 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected
The Opportunity Board
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Devaughn Vele banked 10.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
19 points plotted
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 23.3 | +10.2 | 88% | 89% | 24% | 36% | 8/8, 93 yd, 1 TD |
| De'Von AchaneRB · Bell Cow Back | 19.4 | +4.7 | 73% | 69% | 5% | 0% | 22 car, 134 yd, 1 TD · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 17.4 | +1.3 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 26/38, 239 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 18 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Featured Receiver | 14.7 | +3.9 | 88% | 93% | 21% | 34% | 4/7, 47 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin NealRB · Committee Back | 9.9 | −0.4 | 82% | 83% | 9% | 0% | 14 car, 47 yd · 3/3, 22 yd |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.9 | −2.1 | 72% | 83% | 26% | 20% | 5/9, 39 yd |
| Malik WashingtonWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −1.1 | 60% | 66% | 25% | 8% | 4/5, 30 yd |
| Jaylen WaddleWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −3.3 | 92% | 93% | 30% | 46% | 3/6, 40 yd |
| Darren WallerTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.7 | +0.1 | 47% | 66% | 15% | 18% | 2/3, 47 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.1 | 85% | 89% | 12% | 8% | 1 car, -1 yd · 3/4, 20 yd |
| Tua TagovailoaQB · Starter QB | 4.7 | −7.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 12/23, 157 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 4 yd |
| Greg DulcichTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | +1.0 | 37% | 38% | 10% | 8% | 2/2, 24 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.3 | +1.0 | 38% | 22% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 13 yd |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −0.4 | 17% | 10% | 10% | 16% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 1.7 | −0.3 | 17% | — | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Jaylen WrightRB | 1.6 | −0.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Evan HullRB | 1.5 | −0.7 | 18% | 17% | 0% | — | 5 car, 15 yd |
| Ollie Gordon IIRB | 1.0 | −0.3 | 27% | 31% | 0% | — | 3 car, 10 yd |
| Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Julian HillTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.8 | 55% | 38% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Dolphins→
C.Smyth kicks−26% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
39-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 1:17 · Dolphins · Kickoff at NO 35 · gained nothing · -2.05 EP · −25.5% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 170. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 69 yards from the MIA 31 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
594
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1463%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.1854%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.0667%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1533%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.0338%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.5143%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved1st quarter36 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Saints0
Dolphins6- Saints0Dolphins7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Saints 29
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 35
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 20
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 34 to the Saints 41
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 21
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 44 to the Dolphins 49
The period ended5 plays, from the Dolphins 11 to the Saints 30
2nd quarter48 plays
- Saints0Dolphins10
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 24 to the Saints 21
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Saints 38 to the Dolphins 49
Intercepted1 play
Punt5 plays
- Saints0Dolphins13
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Saints 6
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Dolphins 24
- Saints0Dolphins16
Field goal7 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Saints 29
3rd quarter39 plays
- Saints6Dolphins16
- Saints8Dolphins16
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Dolphins 12
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 27 to the Dolphins 36
Punt11 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 45
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 4 to midfield
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Saints 20
- Saints8Dolphins19
Field goal9 plays, from the Dolphins 47 to the Saints 11
- Saints11Dolphins19
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Dolphins 37
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Saints 43
- Saints17Dolphins19
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds- Saints17Dolphins21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Dolphins 15
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Saints 45 to the Dolphins 36
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Dolphins, every play.
Full stat lines
Box score
New Orleans Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 26/38 | 239 | 2 | 1 | 4 | −11.2 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 14 | 47 | 3.4 | 0 | −1.1 |
| Tyler Shough | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 | +2.0 |
| Evan Hull | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 8 | 8 | 93 | 1 | 24% | +6.5 |
| Chris Olave | 4 | 7 | 47 | 1 | 21% | −1.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 9 | 39 | 0 | 26% | −1.8 |
| Devin Neal | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Mason Tipton | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 | 12% | −2.0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 6% | +0.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.1 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Terrell Burgess | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonas Sanker | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Bresee | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
Miami Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 12/23 | 157 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −8.0 |
Rushing
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 22 | 134 | 6.1 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Jaylen Wright | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | −1.6 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 2 | 3 | 47 | 0 | 15% | +2.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 3 | 6 | 40 | 0 | 30% | −2.3 |
| Malik Washington | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | +0.1 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 10% | +2.0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| De'Von Achane | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.0 |
| Julian Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −1.7 |
Defense (top contributors)
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordyn Brooks | 6 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrel Dodson | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ifeatu Melifonwu | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashtyn Davis | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rasul Douglas | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jack Jones | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chop Robinson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Dante Trader Jr. | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
Take it with you
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
Drawing the card…
Download the PNG
/football/games/2025_13_NO_MIA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- Dolphins -5.5
- Closing total
- 41.5
- Saints moneyline
- +205
- Dolphins moneyline
- -250
Dolphins closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Mild, 77°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the east; 0.06 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
- Referee
- Alan Eck
- Rest
- Saints 7 days · Dolphins 14 days
- Coaches
- Kellen Moore vs Mike McDaniel