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2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · Hard Rock Stadium

New Orleans Saints

17

Miami DolphinsWinner

21

MIA -5.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 21–17. Biggest swing: Q4 0:35, NO +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIA ↑NO ↓
Q4 · 0:35NO 17 — MIA 21NO ball · 4th & 1MIA 72%

(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:35NO +26% win prob(:35) 6-T.Shough up the middle to MIA 36 for no gain (44-C.Robinson).
  2. Q4 · 1:17NO +24% win prob39-C.Smyth kicks onside 10 yards from NO 35 to NO 45. RECOVERED by NO-14-D.Vele. The Replay Official reviewed the kick touched ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  3. Q4 · 1:17NO +13% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 6-T.Shough pass to 14-D.Vele is intercepted. ATTEMPT FAILS. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT. 29-M.Fitzpatrick intercepted the try attempt. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
  4. Q4 · 0:39NO +9% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short right.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:27MIA Touchdown

    (11:27) 28-D.Achane right end for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 7
  2. Q2 · 14:13MIA Field goal

    (14:13) 47-R.Patterson 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 10
  3. Q2 · 6:10MIA Field goal

    (6:10) 47-R.Patterson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 13
  4. Q2 · 0:02MIA Field goal

    (:02) 47-R.Patterson 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NO 0 — MIA 16
  5. Q3 · 10:45NO Touchdown

    (10:45) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep right to 12-C.Olave for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NO 8 — MIA 16
  6. Q4 · 9:42MIA Field goal

    (9:42) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: NO 8 — MIA 19
  7. Q4 · 6:13NO Field goal

    (6:13) 39-C.Smyth 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: NO 11 — MIA 19
  8. Q4 · 1:23NO Touchdown

    (1:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 14-D.Vele for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: NO 17 — MIA 21

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSaintsDolphins
Offensive plays7156
Total yards296300 (edge)
Yards per play4.25.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.16-0.13 (edge)
Success rate45% (edge)41%
Dropback rate65%50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.100.08 (edge)
Third downs4/124/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)06 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)16
Sacks taken44
Turnovers21 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.13 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

26/38, 239 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-11.2 expected points added · +9.8% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

12/23, 157 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.0 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

22 att, 134 yds, 1 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Devin NealRB

14 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Devaughn VeleWR

8/8 for 93 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 6.5 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Darren WallerTE

2/3 for 47 yds, 0 TD

15% of team targets · 2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 318693:41Touchdown +7
2NONO 27582:18Punt
3MIAMIA 18420:58Punt
4NONO 34461:34Punt
5MIAMIA 204-32:22Punt
6NONO 44472:06Punt
7MIAMIA 118682:52Field goal +3
8NONO 38541:38Fumble
9MIANO 37100:07Interception
10NONO 20400:49Punt
11MIAMIA 4910445:28Field goal +3
12NONO 2812384:59Interception
13MIANO 425131:08Field goal +3
14NONO 3512724:20Touchdown +8
15MIAMIA 27591:42Punt
16NONO 109424:12Punt
17MIAMIA 48394:31Punt
18NONO 124-21:51Punt
19MIAMIA 479383:45Field goal +3
20NONO 2611373:31Field goal +3
21MIAMIA 357213:05Turnover on downs
22NONO 458651:46Touchdown +6
23NONO 456190:48Turnover on downs
24MIAMIA 35200:29End of game

8 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 72 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Shough26/38239214-11.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Devin Neal14473.40-1.1
Tyler Shough6183.002.0
Evan Hull5153.00-0.1
Taysom Hill122.00-0.4
Mason Tipton1-1-1.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Devaughn Vele8893124%6.5
Chris Olave4747121%-1.8
Juwan Johnson5939026%-1.8
Devin Neal332209%0.3
Mason Tipton3420012%-2.0
Foster Moreau221306%0.7
Taysom Hill11503%-0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Demario Davis540.000
Terrell Burgess340.001
Jonas Sanker140.000
Cameron Jordan222.000
Davon Godchaux220.000
Bryan Bresee221.000
Jordan Howden130.000
Pete Werner220.000
Carl Granderson120.000
Nathan Shepherd210.000

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa12/23157014-8.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
De'Von Achane221346.114.5
Jaylen Wright3165.300.2
Ollie Gordon II3103.30-2.4
Tua Tagovailoa441.00-1.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Darren Waller2347015%2.0
Jaylen Waddle3640030%-2.3
Malik Washington4530025%0.1
Greg Dulcich2224010%2.0
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1216010%0.3
De'Von Achane01005%-1.0
Julian Hill01005%-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordyn Brooks660.000
Tyrel Dodson440.001
Minkah Fitzpatrick431.000
Ifeatu Melifonwu430.000
Ashtyn Davis510.000
Rasul Douglas420.011
Jack Jones320.000
Chop Robinson231.500
Bradley Chubb121.000
Dante Trader Jr.210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Closing total
41.5
NO moneyline
+205
MIA moneyline
-250

Dolphins closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 38 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
76°F, wind 10 mph
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
NO 7 days · MIA 14 days
Coaches
Kellen Moore vs Mike McDaniel