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polling · 300s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 12 to play · 2 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 1, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q1 5:37, 4th and 7 — 10.3 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New England Patriots 33–15 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 5:37, Patriots +10.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:37 · 4th and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.36 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Giants at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 1 giveaway.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
(5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Andy Borregales's 22-yard field goal with 9:17 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Andy Borregales22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder B.Baringer · snap J.AshbyLead never changed again+30–39 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Giantscategory by categoryPatriots
Patriots ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.36 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 54 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Patriots’s 61 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Giants 2, Patriots 6.
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
NE's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 22 team-games charted in week 13 — 20.0 points clear of the next team along.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 33.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
NE's play-action rate, 11.1%, is past their previous low of 15.0% in week 9 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 13.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Giants-16.6 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −11.5 vs their -5.0 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.30× that swing) · 53 snaps
Patriots7.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 81%
Tendencies room →Giants51.3%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 51.2%, and they swing ±11.8 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 39 early downs
Patriots53.2%right on their number · −1.0 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 48%
Tendencies room →Giants22.6%right on their number · +0.4 vs their 22.2%, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Patriots11.1%leaned — dropped back clean · −13.8 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Giants—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 53.2%.
Patriots0.0%leaned — took the kick · −43.0 vs their 43.0%, and they swing ±33.5 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -1% to 63%
Tendencies room →Giants36.1%right on their number · +2.8 vs their 33.3%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Patriots38.7%inside their normal wobble · +10.5 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (+0.94× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 37%
Tendencies room →Giants13.9%right on their number · −2.0 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.24× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Patriots22.6%leaned — got home · +7.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NE's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 11.1%, 13.8 points below their season mean of 24.9% and 1.6 times their own 8.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Giants
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NE
24/31, 282 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
11.5 expected points added · +15.8% completion over expected
Passing · NYG
17/24, 139 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-4.8 expected points added · +3.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Devin Singletary banked 9.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 20.5 | −3.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 24/31, 282 yd, 2 TD · 6 car, 12 yd |
| Devin SingletaryRB · Committee Back | 19.2 | +9.2 | 51% | 45% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 68 yd, 1 TD · 3/3, 34 yd |
| Darius SlaytonWR · Rotational Receiver | 14.1 | +8.9 | 76% | 90% | 13% | 24% | 2/3, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Jaxson DartQB · Starter QB | 13.6 | +3.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/24, 139 yd, 1 TD · 4 car, 20 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 13.5 | +2.1 | 75% | 75% | 17% | 25% | 4/5, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 11.6 | −2.6 | 49% | 47% | 13% | 0% | 11 car, 67 yd · 3/4, 19 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | −2.6 | 75% | 86% | 20% | 22% | 4/6, 73 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Committee Back | 11.0 | −0.2 | 58% | 67% | 10% | 1% | 12 car, 40 yd · 3/3, 40 yd |
| Wan'Dale RobinsonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.4 | −0.3 | 100% | 100% | 33% | 20% | 7/8, 34 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.3 | +8.1 | 22% | 25% | 3% | 14% | 1/1, 33 yd, 1 TD |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | +1.5 | 34% | 36% | 10% | 10% | 3/3, 33 yd |
| Theo JohnsonTE · Alpha Receiver | 5.9 | −6.0 | 89% | 94% | 33% | 56% | 3/8, 29 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −2.2 | 48% | 61% | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.3 | −1.7 | 75% | 72% | 13% | 25% | 3/4, 23 yd |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB · Committee Back | 4.3 | −1.9 | 49% | 55% | 4% | 0% | 10 car, 36 yd · 1/1, -3 yd |
| Isaiah HodginsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | +0.5 | 89% | 87% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Efton Chism IIIWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Terrell JenningsRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Gunner OlszewskiWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:37) 12-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to NE 6, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 25-M.Jones for 94 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 5:37 · Giants · 4th & 7 at NYG 40 · gained nothing · -6.10 EP · −15.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 161 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 149 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 67 yards from the NE 23 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Giants0
Patriots3Giants0Patriots9Giants0Patriots10Giants0Patriots16Giants0Patriots17Giants6Patriots17Giants7Patriots17Giants7Patriots23Giants7Patriots24Giants7Patriots27Giants7Patriots30Giants13Patriots30Giants15Patriots30Giants15Patriots33Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Giants at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 17/24 | 139 | 1 | 0 | 2 | −4.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Singletary | 12 | 68 | 5.7 | 1 | +4.1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jaxson Dart |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 2 | 3 | 41 | 1 | 13% | +4.4 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaire Barnes | 8 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paulson Adebo | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dane Belton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 24/31 | 282 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +11.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_NYG_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Patriots closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 48 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 4 |
| 20 |
| 5.0 |
| 0 |
| −0.9 |
| Jamie Gillan | 1 | -13 | -13.0 | 0 | −3.8 |
| 13% |
| +2.1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 7 | 8 | 34 | 0 | 33% | −1.4 |
| Theo Johnson | 3 | 8 | 29 | 0 | 33% | −4.1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 4% | −2.7 |
| 5 |
| 3 |
| 1.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Bobby Okereke | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jevon Holland | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Nubin | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cordale Flott | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abdul Carter | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andru Phillips | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Drake Maye | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 | +1.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry | 4 | 6 | 73 | 0 | 20% | +5.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 | 10% | +0.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 4 | 5 | 35 | 1 | 17% | +1.9 |
| Kyle Williams | 1 | 1 | 33 | 1 | 3% | +4.8 |
| DeMario Douglas | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 | 10% | +1.4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +0.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 13% | −0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Elliss | 4 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Craig Woodson | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Christian Barmore | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harold Landry III | 4 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| K'Lavon Chaisson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Gibbens | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Anfernee Jennings | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
