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live · 12s tick · as of 12:20 PM ET · 14 min ago · 1 live · 12 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 13 · Sun, Nov 30, 2025 · FirstEnergy Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 13
It turned at Q1 10:40, 4th and 3 — 12.4 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
San Francisco 49ers 26–8 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:40, 49ers +12.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 24.2 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:40 · 4th and 3
Unnamed on the sheet
49ers
(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
49ers won this one — 11 of 17 on third down, against Browns at 3 of 11 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
49ers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Browns at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against 49ers at 34% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.01 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.20 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 13.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 29 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Matt Gay's 25-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 2nd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Harold Fannin Jr.34-yd TD catch34-yard touchdown catchfrom Shedeur Sanders · two-point good+87–8
Matt Gay25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+310–86 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
49erscategory by categoryBrowns
49ers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Browns’s 61 at 49%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 5, Browns 2.
Browns outgained 49ers 255-253 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SF's blitz rate sent, 3.3%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 13 — 9.2 points clear of the next team along.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
SF's sack or hit rate, 20.0%, sat 10.5 points above their season number of 9.5% — they got home by 2.0 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
CLE's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 0.0% in week 12 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →49ers-7.5 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −6.9 vs their -0.6 pts, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (−1.16× that swing) · 63 snaps
Browns-12.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.0 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 60 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →49ers41.3%leaned — ran early · −13.7 vs their 55.0%, and they swing ±11.6 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 46 early downs
Browns44.4%inside their normal wobble · −11.7 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 45%
Tendencies room →49ers24.2%right on their number · +1.8 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.27× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Browns20.0%right on their number · −3.4 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →49ers—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 36.3%.
Browns66.7%leaned — went for it · +33.5 vs their 33.2%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+1.25× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →49ers3.3%off script — sat back · −20.1 vs their 23.5%, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−2.05× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Browns24.2%right on their number · −4.9 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 41%
Tendencies room →49ers20.0%off script — got home · +10.5 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+2.03× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Browns21.2%right on their number · +2.1 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
SF's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 3.3%, 20.1 points below their season mean of 23.5% and 2.0 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
48 dressed · 7 inactive
Inactive · 7
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SF
16/29, 168 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
3.4 expected points added · +9.5% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
16/25, 149 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-3.9 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected
Receiving · CLE
3/5 for 43 yds, 1 TD
22% of team targets · 1.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Harold Fannin Jr. banked 5.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffreyRB · Bell Cow Back | 17.4 | −11.8 | 79% | 91% | 17% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd · 20 car, 53 yd, 1 TD · 4/4, 21 yd |
| Brock PurdyQB · Starter QB | 17.1 | −2.3 | 94% | — | 0% | — | 16/29, 168 yd, 1 TD · 2 car, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 15.9 | +0.6 | 60% | 37% | 13% | 0% | 23 car, 91 yd · 3/3, 18 yd |
| Jauan JenningsWR · Alpha Receiver | 13.9 | +2.6 | 81% | 91% | 26% | 35% | 4/6, 39 yd, 1 TD |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Featured Receiver | 11.3 | +5.0 | 92% | 97% | 22% | 17% | 1 car, 0 yd · 3/5, 43 yd, 1 TD |
| George KittleTE · Featured Receiver | 10.7 | +3.9 | 87% | 97% | 22% | 31% | 4/5, 67 yd |
| Shedeur SandersQB · Starter QB | 10.6 | +4.2 | 97% | — | 0% | — | 16/25, 149 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.6 | −0.2 | 84% | 87% | 17% | 37% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Jerome FordRB · Receiving Back | 4.7 | +0.7 | 22% | 43% | 13% | 0% | 3/3, 17 yd |
| Kyle JuszczykRB | 4.7 | +2.8 | 36% | 24% | 9% | 11% | 2/2, 27 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.3 | +0.3 | 29% | 47% | 13% | 12% | 2/3, 23 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.2 | 29% | 43% | 9% | 39% | 1 car, 9 yd · 1/2, 18 yd |
| Ricky PearsallWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.4 | −1.2 | 87% | 94% | 13% | 10% | 2/3, 14 yd |
| Brian RobinsonRB | 2.6 | −1.4 | 21% | 9% | 0% | — | 8 car, 26 yd |
| David NjokuTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.4 | −0.4 | 51% | 43% | 9% | 1% | 2/2, 4 yd |
| Dylan SampsonRB | 2.3 | +0.5 | 19% | 23% | 0% | — | 4 car, 23 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.9 | +0.3 | 37% | 3% | 0% | — | 1 car, 9 yd |
| Demarcus RobinsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.6 | −1.6 | 43% | 42% | 4% | 4% | 1 car, 6 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Mac JonesQB | 0.2 | +0.1 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Dillon GabrielQB | 0.0 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Blake WhiteheartTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Cedric TillmanWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 63% | 70% | 4% | 2% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Luke FarrellTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.2 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Skyy MooreWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.3 | 34% | 33% | 4% | 10% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Isaac GuerendoRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:40) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to SF 18, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 9-S.Moore pushed ob at CLE 16 for 66 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).
Q1 10:40 · Browns · 4th & 3 at CLE 34 · gained nothing · -4.29 EP · −14.9% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 90 yards from the CLE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
49ers6
Browns049ers7Browns0How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
49ers7Browns649ers7Browns849ers10Browns8How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a quarterback sneak, nobody in motion.
49ers16Browns849ers17Browns849ers23Browns849ers26Browns8Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: 49ers at Browns, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 16/29 | 168 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 53 | 2.6 | 1 | −1.4 |
| Brian Robinson | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 | 22% | +2.4 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 6 | 39 | 1 | 26% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clelin Ferrell | 6 | 3 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Upton Stout | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Curtis Robinson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 16/25 | 149 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −3.9 |
| Dillon Gabriel | 1/1 | 0 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_13_SF_CLE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
49ers closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 35.5; the game landed 34 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Wind at 24.2 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
| Demarcus Robinson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.3 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 | +1.0 |
| Mac Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| +5.5 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 | 9% | +1.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 17% | +2.6 |
| Ricky Pearsall | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 13% | −0.4 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.6 |
| Luke Farrell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.4 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −1.2 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dee Winters | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Mustapha | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ji'Ayir Brown | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deommodore Lenoir | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keion White | 3 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Renardo Green | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| CJ West | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| −0.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinshon Judkins | 23 | 91 | 4.0 | 0 | −4.2 |
| Dylan Sampson | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| Shedeur Sanders | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | −1.4 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −3.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 43 | 1 | 22% | +1.6 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 17% | +0.5 |
| Gage Larvadain | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 13% | +0.2 |
| Isaiah Bond | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 9% | +0.3 |
| Jerome Ford | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 13% | +1.5 |
| David Njoku | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 9% | −1.1 |
| Cedric Tillman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Devin Bush | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyson Campbell | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grant Delpit | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Graham | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shelby Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
