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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Lambeau Field
21
28
Green Bay Packers 28–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, CHI +14% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
How the points landed
(9:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 0 — GB 7(1:17) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 7(:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 14(8:25) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [1-M.Parsons]. (two-point conversion good)
Score after this play: CHI 11 — GB 14(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 11 — GB 21(3:19) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.
Score after this play: CHI 14 — GB 21(8:05) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 21(3:37) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 28Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Bears | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 69 | 51 |
| Total yards | 317 | 338 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.6 | 6.6 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.11 | 0.24 (edge) |
| Success rate | 52% | 53% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 51% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.05 | 0.31 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.18 (edge) | 0.17 |
| Third downs | 8/16 | 8/12 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 1 | 1 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Who moved the needle
Passing · GB
17/25, 234 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
8.0 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected
Passing · CHI
19/35, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
4/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD
21% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI | CHI 28 | 5 | 5 | 1:18 | Punt | |
| 2 | GB | GB 11 | 13 | 37 | 7:55 | Interception | |
| 3 | CHI | GB 36 | 4 | 0 | 0:23 | Punt | |
| 4 | GB | GB 11 | 6 | 30 | 2:23 | Punt | |
| 5 | CHI | CHI 25 | 6 | 15 | 2:52 | Punt | |
| 6 | GB | GB 20 | 12 | 80 | 5:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 7 | CHI | CHI 26 | 15 | 39 | 8:05 | Field goal +3 | |
| 8 | GB | GB 40 | 6 | 60 | 0:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | CHI | CHI 26 | 6 | 12 | 0:38 | Punt | |
| 10 | GB | GB 35 | 5 | -1 | 1:04 | Punt | |
| 11 | CHI | CHI 36 | 11 | 66 | 5:36 | Touchdown +8 | |
| 12 | GB | GB 37 | 6 | 63 | 2:10 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | CHI | CHI 40 | 8 | 37 | 2:55 | Field goal +3 | |
| 14 | GB | GB 27 | 5 | 6 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 15 | CHI | CHI 17 | 18 | 83 | 8:32 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | GB | GB 35 | 10 | 63 | 4:28 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 17 | CHI | CHI 26 | 8 | 60 | 3:10 | Interception | |
| 18 | GB | GB 20 | 1 | 0 | 0:22 | End of game |
8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 83 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/35 | 186 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -0.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 | 4.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 | 1.6 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | -0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 | 21% | 6.0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 | 11% | -0.1 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 18% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Byard | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Austin Booker | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Edwards |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 17/25 | 234 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 49 — over by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3.3 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 4% | 2.0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | -0.6 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 11% | 0.4 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | -0.4 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | -1.6 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 | 11% | -2.9 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| D'Marco Jackson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gervon Dexter Sr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Billings | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3.3 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 1.2 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 4 | 89 | 2 | 17% | 9.6 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 45 | 1 | 9% | 3.8 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 | 17% | 1.4 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 17% | 1.4 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 4% | 2.1 |
| John FitzPatrick | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 9% | 0.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 9% | -0.3 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 4% | -0.8 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | -1.9 |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -4.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin Cooper | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quay Walker | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Evan Williams | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Xavier McKinney | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah McDuffie | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kingsley Enagbare | 4 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carrington Valentine | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Bullard | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colby Wooden | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Karl Brooks | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
