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3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Bears152 of 161 plays carry both curves
(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
Swing +13.7 for PackersExpected points +2.75 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:27CHI +14% win prob(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
4th · 8:05GB +13% win prob(8:05) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:17GB +12% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:56CHI +12% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. 35-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (50-Z.Tom).
2nd · 0:45GB +10% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:20GB +10% win prob(5:20) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs right end to CHI 7 for 21 yards (31-K.Byard).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Josh Jacobs's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 3:37 left in the 4th put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
2nd9:25Christian Watson·23-yd TD catch23-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+70–7
2nd1:17Cairo Santos·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap S.Daly+33–7
2nd0:45Bo Melton·45-yd TD catch45-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+73–14
4th3:37Josh Jacobs·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+721–28
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryPackers
Bears2–5Packers
317Total yards338
4.6Yards per play6.6
52%Success rate53%
50%Third-down rate67%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays8
20First downs17
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Packers ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Bears: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.24Packers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.05Bears: +0.05 expected points added per play
+0.31Packers: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.18Bears: +0.18 expected points added per play
+0.17Packers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 69 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Packers’s 51 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Bears 4, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
CHI's play-action rate, 53.8%, is past their previous high of 41.7% in week 11 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.2 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Packers15.4%
right on their number · −0.9 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
NoteCHI's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 53.8%, 22.2 points above their season mean of 31.6% and 2.4 times their own 9.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. 35-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (50-Z.Tom).
Q1 5:56 · Packers · 3rd & 19 at GB 48 · gained nothing · -4.47 EP · −14.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 83 yards from the CHI 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
53%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0757%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.4148%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.2563%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2229%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.0760%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9-0.3233%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Bears 33
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Bears 38
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Packers 35
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 40
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter42 plays
Bears0Packers6
Bears0Packers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Bears 23
Bears3Packers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Packers 15
Bears3Packers13
Bears3Packers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 40 to the Bears 45
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Bears 38
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays
Bears9Packers14
Bears11Packers14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 36 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Bears11Packers20
Bears11Packers21
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Bears 41
Bears14Packers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Packers 23
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 27 to the Packers 33
The period ended4 plays, from the Bears 17 to the Bears 26
4th quarter39 plays
Bears20Packers21
Bears21Packers21
Touchdown15 plays, from the Bears 35 to the Packers 1
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears21Packers27
Bears21Packers28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Bears 2
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.2 seconds
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended10 plays, from the Bears 26 to the Packers 14
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
