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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

21

Green Bay PackersWinner

28

GB -6.5 ✓O 44.5 ✓16°F

Green Bay Packers 28–21. Biggest swing: Q4 0:27, CHI +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GB ↑CHI ↓
Q4 · 0:27CHI 21 — GB 28CHI ball · 4th & 1GB 86%

(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:27CHI +14% win prob(:27) 18-C.Williams pass deep left intended for 85-C.Kmet INTERCEPTED by 25-K.Nixon at GB -5. Touchback.
  2. Q4 · 8:05GB +13% win prob(8:05) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q3 · 6:17GB +12% win prob(6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 5:56CHI +12% win prob(5:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 0-M.Golden INTERCEPTED by 35-C.Gardner-Johnson at CHI 36. 35-C.Gardner-Johnson ran ob at GB 36 for 28 yards (50-Z.Tom).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q2 · 9:25GB Touchdown

    (9:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 0 — GB 7
  2. Q2 · 1:17CHI Field goal

    (1:17) 8-C.Santos 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 7
  3. Q2 · 0:45GB Touchdown

    (:45) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 16-B.Melton for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 3 — GB 14
  4. Q3 · 8:25CHI Touchdown

    (8:25) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-O.Zaccheaus for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [1-M.Parsons]. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CHI 11 — GB 14
  5. Q3 · 6:17GB Touchdown

    (6:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 11 — GB 21
  6. Q3 · 3:19CHI Field goal

    (3:19) 8-C.Santos 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    Score after this play: CHI 14 — GB 21
  7. Q4 · 8:05CHI Touchdown

    (8:05) 79-T.Benedet reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short right to 84-C.Loveland for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 21
  8. Q4 · 3:37GB Touchdown

    (3:37) (Shotgun) 8-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CHI 21 — GB 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBearsPackers
Offensive plays6951
Total yards317338 (edge)
Yards per play4.66.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.110.24 (edge)
Success rate52%53% (edge)
Dropback rate57%51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.050.31 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.18 (edge)0.17
Third downs8/168/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)38 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps20 (edge)17
Sacks taken11
Turnovers11

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

17/25, 234 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

8.0 expected points added · +12.0% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Caleb WilliamsQB

19/35, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-0.2 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

20 att, 86 yds, 1 TD

3.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

D'Andre SwiftRB

13 att, 63 yds, 0 TD

4.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Christian WatsonWR

4/4 for 89 yds, 2 TD

17% of team targets · 9.6 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Luther Burden IIIWR

4/6 for 67 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CHICHI 28551:18Punt
2GBGB 1113377:55Interception
3CHIGB 36400:23Punt
4GBGB 116302:23Punt
5CHICHI 256152:52Punt
6GBGB 2012805:50Touchdown +7
7CHICHI 2615398:05Field goal +3
8GBGB 406600:36Touchdown +7
9CHICHI 266120:38Punt
10GBGB 355-11:04Punt
11CHICHI 3611665:36Touchdown +8
12GBGB 376632:10Touchdown +7
13CHICHI 408372:55Field goal +3
14GBGB 27561:43Punt
15CHICHI 1718838:32Touchdown +7
16GBGB 3510634:28Touchdown +7
17CHICHI 268603:10Interception
18GBGB 20100:22End of game

8 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 83 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Caleb Williams19/35186211-0.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
D'Andre Swift13634.804.5
Kyle Monangai14574.101.7
Caleb Williams4153.801.6
Luther Burden III133.00-0.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Luther Burden III4667021%6.0
Cole Kmet2342011%-0.1
Colston Loveland4529118%3.3
Devin Duvernay112404%2.0
D'Andre Swift3419014%-0.6
Olamide Zaccheaus237111%0.4
Durham Smythe11204%-0.4
Kyle Monangai12007%-1.6
DJ Moore13-4011%-2.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
C.J. Gardner-Johnson640.011
Kevin Byard610.000
Austin Booker320.000
T.J. Edwards310.000
Grady Jarrett210.000
D'Marco Jackson300.000
Andrew Billings110.000
Jaylon Johnson110.000
Nahshon Wright110.000
Montez Sweat201.000

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love17/252343118.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs20864.313.3
Jayden Reed22211.001.2
Emanuel Wilson3103.30-0.3
Jordan Love1-1-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Christian Watson4489217%9.6
Bo Melton124519%3.8
Jayden Reed4431017%1.4
Luke Musgrave2422017%1.4
Josh Whyle112104%2.1
John FitzPatrick221409%0.7
Josh Jacobs22609%-0.3
Chris Brooks11604%-0.8
Matthew Golden01004%-4.5
Romeo Doubs02009%-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Edgerrin Cooper560.000
Quay Walker360.000
Xavier McKinney340.000
Evan Williams430.001
Isaiah McDuffie330.000
Javon Bullard220.000
Kingsley Enagbare401.000
Carrington Valentine310.000
Karl Brooks120.000
Colby Wooden210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -6.5
Closing total
44.5
CHI moneyline
+245
GB moneyline
-305

Packers closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 7.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 49 — over by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
16°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
CHI 9 days · GB 10 days
Coaches
Ben Johnson vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.