For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · New Era Field

Cincinnati Bengals

34

Buffalo BillsWinner

39

BUF -6 no coverO 54.5 ✓31°F

Buffalo Bills 39–34. Biggest swing: Q4 5:35, CIN +56% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BUF ↑CIN ↓
Q4 · 5:35CIN 28 — BUF 31CIN ball · 1st & 10CIN 81%

(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 5:35CIN +56% win prob(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 0:52CIN +28% win prob(:52) 4-J.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (20-D.Turner; 27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-42-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.
  3. Q4 · 5:19CIN +17% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa (52-J.Phillips) at CIN 30. 57-A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (66-D.Risner).
  4. Q4 · 7:41BUF +14% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:52CIN Touchdown

    (6:52) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — BUF 0
  2. Q1 · 1:57BUF Field goal

    (1:57) 15-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-19-M.Wishnowsky.

    Score after this play: CIN 7 — BUF 3
  3. Q2 · 13:39CIN Touchdown

    (13:39) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — BUF 3
  4. Q2 · 7:36BUF Touchdown

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CIN-58-J.Ossai, Roughing the Passer, 1 yard, enforced between downs. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: CIN 14 — BUF 11
  5. Q2 · 3:25CIN Touchdown

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown pushed ob at BUF 1 for 9 yards (45-S.Thompson). Cincinnati challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 30-C.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BUF 11
  6. Q3 · 9:23BUF Touchdown

    (9:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 86-D.Kincaid for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 21 — BUF 18
  7. Q4 · 8:49CIN Touchdown

    (8:49) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-S.Thompson]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BUF 18
  8. Q4 · 7:41BUF Touchdown

    (7:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BUF 25
  9. Q4 · 5:35BUF Touchdown

    (5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BUF 32
  10. Q4 · 3:09BUF Touchdown

    (3:09) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 85-J.Hawes for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CIN 28 — BUF 39
  11. Q4 · 2:19CIN Touchdown

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 5-T.Higgins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: CIN 34 — BUF 39

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBengalsBills
Offensive plays5758
Total yards338421 (edge)
Yards per play5.97.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.120.25 (edge)
Success rate49%57% (edge)
Dropback rate67%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.220.64 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.07 (edge)-0.43
Third downs10/12 (edge)6/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)39 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps23 (edge)21
Sacks taken1 (edge)3
Turnovers21 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/36, 284 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT

8.2 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

22/28, 251 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

16.7 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

18 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

-8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

9 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

5.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Dawson KnoxTE

6/7 for 93 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 4.7 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tee HigginsWR

6/11 for 92 yds, 2 TD

31% of team targets · 9.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CINCIN 3316678:16Touchdown +7
2BUFBUF 239694:50Field goal +3
3CINCIN 458553:21Touchdown +7
4BUFBUF 3014726:06Touchdown +8
5CINCIN 3110364:09Touchdown +7
6BUFBUF 326302:07Turnover on downs
7CINCIN 44531:01Punt
8BUFBUF 26100:10End of half
9BUFBUF 2511565:40Touchdown +7
10CINCIN 27521:11Punt
11BUFBUF 2812757:23Fumble
12CINCIN 2013757:02Touchdown +7
13BUFBUF 326681:11Touchdown +7
14CINCIN 335342:08Defensive touchdown
15CINCIN 34200:14Interception
16BUFCIN 296392:08Touchdown +7
17CINCIN 346660:50Touchdown +6
18BUFBUF 306122:13End of game

10 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 75 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Joe Burrow25/362844218.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Samaje Perine6315.202.3
Chase Brown12231.91-4.2
Ja'Marr Chase188.000.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Tee Higgins61192231%9.3
Mike Gesicki6686117%9.5
Ja'Marr Chase5844022%-13.3
Andrei Iosivas231708%1.4
Noah Fant121506%0.5
Chase Brown3412111%0.6
Tanner Hudson111103%0.5
Samaje Perine11703%1.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Geno Stone721.000
Jordan Battle440.001
Barrett Carter340.000
Tedarrell Slaton231.000
Joseph Ossai410.000
Demetrius Knight Jr.320.000
Daxton Hill230.001
Joe Giles-Harris310.000
DJ Turner II220.001
Jalen Davis120.000

Buffalo Bills

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Josh Allen22/2825130316.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Cook18804.40-8.6
Josh Allen9788.715.0
Ty Johnson22512.501.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Dawson Knox6793026%4.7
Dalton Kincaid4541119%3.7
James Cook223107%2.2
Gabe Davis222107%3.8
Tyrell Shavers111604%1.0
Khalil Shakir2316111%0.9
Keon Coleman2316011%1.2
Ty Johnson2314011%-1.1
Jackson Hawes11314%4.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jordan Poyer620.000
Shaq Thompson330.000
Cole Bishop330.000
Taron Johnson410.001
Deone Walker130.000
Jordan Hancock210.000
Maxwell Hairston300.002
A.J. Epenesa120.011
Tre'Davious White120.000
Dorian Williams120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BUF -6
Closing total
54.5
CIN moneyline
+230
BUF moneyline
-285

Bills closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 54.5; the game landed 73 — over by 18.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · a turf
Kickoff weather
31°F, wind 12 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
CIN 10 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Sean McDermott