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Buffalo Bills 39, Bengals 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:35, 1st and 10, on Christian Benford — 56.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:35 · 1st and 10
Christian Benford
Bills
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32°F
Bills closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 39–34. Biggest swing: Q4 5:35, Bills +56.0% win probability on one snap.
56.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James CookBengalsQ3 0:52(:52) 4-J.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (20-D.Turner; 27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-42-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.
27.5pts
A.J. EpenesaBillsQ4 5:19(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa (52-J.Phillips) at CIN 30. 57-A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (66-D.Risner).
16.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 6 of 11 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.64 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.22 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Bengals152 of 162 plays carry both curves
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +56.0 for BillsExpected points +10.56 for BillsThe model had Bengals 2 points higher than the market did.play 136
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:35CIN +56% win prob(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:52CIN +28% win prob(:52) 4-J.Cook left tackle to CIN 2 for no gain (20-D.Turner; 27-J.Battle). FUMBLES (20-D.Turner), RECOVERED by CIN-42-O.Burks at CIN -3. Touchback.
4th · 5:19CIN +17% win prob(5:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 57-A.Epenesa (52-J.Phillips) at CIN 30. 57-A.Epenesa to CIN 29 for 1 yard (66-D.Risner).
4th · 7:41BUF +14% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles left end for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:34BUF +11% win prob(3:34) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete deep left to 80-A.Iosivas (96-D.Walker) [96-D.Walker]. PENALTY on BUF-7-Ta.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 33 yards, enforced at BUF 43 - No Play.
2nd · 11:23BUF +10% win prob(11:23) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 13-G.Davis pushed ob at CIN 28 for 17 yards (20-D.Turner).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Christian Benford's 63-yard touchdown with 5:35 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th2:19Tee Higgins·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Joe Burrowfrom Joe Burrow · two-point no good+634–39
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBills
Bengals3–5Bills
338Total yards421
5.9Yards per play7.3
49%Success rate57%
83%Third-down rate55%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays9
23First downs21
1Sacks taken3
2Turnovers1
The read
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Bengals: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.25Bills: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Bengals: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.64Bills: +0.64 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.43Bills: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Bills 6.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BUF's play-action rate, 56.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 44.4% in week 13.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points.
BUF's pass rate over expected turned over: −17.4 pts in week 13 against +2.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bills13.2%
right on their number · −3.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
NoteBUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 56.8%, 29.6 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 1.9 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Burrow pass−56% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:35 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at BUF 33 · gained nothing · -10.56 EP · −55.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
55%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.5464%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2870%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23-0.0861%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.8730%
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.5450%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4650%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Bengals6Bills0
Bengals7Bills0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bills 5
Bengals7Bills3
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bengals 5
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Bills 40
2nd quarter46 plays
Bengals13Bills3
Bengals14Bills3
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Bills 21
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.1 seconds
Bengals14Bills9
Bengals14Bills11
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bengals 10
Bengals20Bills11
Bengals21Bills11
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bills 10
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bengals 43
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bills 40
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Bengals21Bills17
Bengals21Bills18
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bengals 5
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 29
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxTen defenders
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Bills 28 to the Bengals 2
The period ended3 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 25
4th quarter51 plays
Bengals27Bills18
Bengals28Bills18
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bills 12
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Bengals28Bills24
Bengals28Bills25
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bengals 40
How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.0 seconds
Bengals28Bills31
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 33 to the Bills 33
Bengals28Bills32
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Bengals28Bills38
Bengals28Bills39
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Bengals 3
Bengals34Bills39
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 34 to the Bills 25
The period ended8 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
