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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · New Era Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 14
It turned at Q4 5:35, 1st and 10, on Christian Benford — 56.0 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Buffalo Bills 39–34. Biggest swing: Q4 5:35, Bills +56.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:35 · 1st and 10
Christian Benford
Bills
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
56.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 10 of 12 on third down, against Bills at 6 of 11 on third down.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Bills at -0.43 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.64 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.22 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Christian Benford's 63-yard touchdown with 5:35 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Christian Benford63-yd defense TD63-yard touchdownthe defense scored itLead never changed again+728–3211 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Bengalscategory by categoryBills
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 57 snaps at a 67% dropback rate against Bills’s 58 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 5, Bills 6.
Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's play-action rate, 56.8%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.3 points. · +1.9σ from their own normal
BUF's pass rate over expected turned over: −17.4 pts in week 13 against +2.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Bengals5.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 1.6 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 56 snaps
Bills2.4 ptsinside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 84%
Tendencies room →Bengals61.4%right on their number · −0.1 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 44 early downs
Bills54.8%right on their number · +4.4 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 42 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bengals15.8%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Bills56.8%leaned — faked the run · +29.6 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+1.93× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -36% to 119%
Fourth Down room →Bengals—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.0%.
Bills80.0%inside their normal wobble · +18.9 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 56%
Tendencies room →Bengals35.1%leaned — sent pressure · +14.0 vs their 21.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+1.42× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bills36.8%inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bengals13.5%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bills13.2%right on their number · −3.2 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.38× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
BUF's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 56.8%, 29.6 points above their season mean of 27.1% and 1.9 times their own 15.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
25/36, 284 yds, 4 TD, 2 INT
8.2 expected points added · +7.0% completion over expected
Passing · BUF
22/28, 251 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
16.7 expected points added · +12.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Allen banked 11.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 37.8 | +11.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 22/28, 251 yd, 3 TD · 9 car, 78 yd, 1 TD |
| Tee HigginsWR · Alpha Receiver | 27.2 | +6.4 | 73% | 87% | 31% | 51% | 6/11, 92 yd, 2 TD |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 23.4 | +6.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/36, 284 yd, 4 TD, 2 INT |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 20.6 | +10.1 | 42% | 50% | 17% | 20% | 6/6, 86 yd, 1 TD |
| Chase BrownRB · Bell Cow Back | 18.5 | +5.1 | 67% | 66% | 11% | 10% | 12 car, 23 yd, 1 TD · 3/4, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Alpha Receiver | 17.3 | +2.9 | 55% | 49% | 26% | 30% | 6/7, 93 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Featured Receiver | 14.1 | +4.4 | 34% | 54% | 19% | 19% | 4/5, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| James CookRB · Bell Cow Back | 11.1 | −4.2 | 75% | 73% | 7% | 0% | 18 car, 80 yd · 2/2, 31 yd |
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Featured Receiver | 10.2 | −2.7 | 100% | 100% | 22% | 6% | 1 car, 8 yd · 5/8, 44 yd |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.6 | +4.5 | 50% | 62% | 11% | 4% | 2/3, 16 yd, 1 TD |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.3 | +3.0 | 53% | 27% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 3 yd, 1 TD |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 5.9 | +0.1 | 25% | 30% | 11% | 0% | 2 car, 25 yd · 2/3, 14 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB | 4.8 | +0.6 | 37% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 6 car, 31 yd · 1/1, 7 yd |
| Gabe DavisWR | 4.1 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | −0.7 | 65% | 63% | 8% | 6% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Keon ColemanWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −2.6 | 28% | 24% | 11% | 27% | 2/3, 16 yd |
| Tyrell ShaversWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +0.8 | 56% | 49% | 4% | 14% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Noah FantTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.9 | 42% | 39% | 6% | 5% | 1/2, 15 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | +0.6 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Ray DavisRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 23% | 16% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Charlie JonesWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:35) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 47-C.Benford at BUF 37. 47-C.Benford for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 5:35 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at BUF 33 · gained nothing · -10.56 EP · −55.5% win probability
150 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 157. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 75 yards from the BUF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Bengals6
Bills0Bengals7Bills0Bengals7Bills3Bengals13Bills3Bengals14Bills3How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Bengals14Bills9Bengals14Bills11Bengals20Bills11Bengals21Bills11Bengals21Bills17Bengals21Bills18How the play was built
A man in motion.
Bengals27Bills18Bengals28Bills18How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Bengals28Bills24Bengals28Bills25How the play was built
A screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
Bengals28Bills31Bengals28Bills32How the play was built
A man in motion.
Bengals28Bills38Bengals28Bills39Bengals34Bills39Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bengals at Bills, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/36 | 284 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samaje Perine | 6 | 31 | 5.2 | 0 | +2.3 |
| Chase Brown | 12 | 23 | 1.9 | 1 | −4.2 |
| Ja'Marr Chase |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 11 | 92 | 2 | 31% | +9.3 |
| Mike Gesicki | 6 | 6 | 86 | 1 | 17% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Stone | 7 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Battle | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Barrett Carter |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 22/28 | 251 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +16.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_14_CIN_BUF
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -6, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 73 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
| 1 |
| 8 |
| 8.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.5 |
| +9.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 5 | 8 | 44 | 0 | 22% | −13.3 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 8% | +1.4 |
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 6% | +0.5 |
| Chase Brown | 3 | 4 | 12 | 1 | 11% | +0.6 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | +0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +1.7 |
| 3 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Daxton Hill | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tedarrell Slaton | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Ossai | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner II | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joe Giles-Harris | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cedric Johnson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Cook | 18 | 80 | 4.4 | 0 | −8.6 |
| Josh Allen | 9 | 78 | 8.7 | 1 | +5.0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | +1.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Knox | 6 | 7 | 93 | 0 | 26% | +4.7 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 5 | 41 | 1 | 19% | +3.7 |
| James Cook | 2 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 7% | +2.2 |
| Gabe Davis | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 7% | +3.8 |
| Keon Coleman | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 11% | +1.2 |
| Tyrell Shavers | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Khalil Shakir | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 11% | +0.9 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11% | −1.1 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4% | +4.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Poyer | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Deone Walker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dorian Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Hancock | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Tre'Davious White | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Epenesa | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
