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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:18 AM ET · 16 to play
Detroit Lions 44, Cowboys 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:26, 3rd and 6, on Jameson Williams — 10.6 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:26 · 3rd and 6
Jameson Williams
Lions
(8:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DAL 26 for 29 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-53-J.Houston, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
Dome
Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Detroit Lions 44–30. Biggest swing: Q4 8:26, Lions +10.6% win probability on one snap.
10.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jared GoffCowboysQ1 11:30(11:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DAL 20 for -10 yards (53-J.Houston).
8.2pts
Ryan FlournoyCowboysQ4 9:59(9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Cowboys at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.33 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions won this one — 4 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Cowboys at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Lions won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at +0.01 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Cowboys183 of 192 plays carry both curves
(8:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DAL 26 for 29 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-53-J.Houston, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
Swing +10.6 for LionsExpected points +3.81 for LionsModel and market agree here.play 156
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:26DET +11% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 1-J.Williams to DAL 26 for 29 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-53-J.Houston, Roughing the Passer, 13 yards, enforced at DAL 26.
4th · 9:59DET +11% win prob(9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:30DAL +8% win prob(11:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at DAL 20 for -10 yards (53-J.Houston).
3rd · 2:54DET +8% win prob(2:54) 17-B.Aubrey 63 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
1st · 3:36DET +8% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to DAL 8 for 26 yards (26-D.Bland; 6-D.Wilson).
2nd · 5:17DET +8% win prob(5:17) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 1-J.Williams to DAL 35 for 25 yards (26-D.Bland).
1st · 5:48
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jahmyr Gibbs's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 2:18 left in the 1st put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:50Jake Bates·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap H.Hatten+30–3
1st8:12Brandon Aubrey·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+33–3
1st2:18Jahmyr Gibbs·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+73–10
2nd9:27Brandon Aubrey·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap T.Sieg+36–10
Lions ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.01Cowboys: −0.01 expected points added per play
+0.33Lions: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.02Cowboys: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.35Lions: +0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.01Cowboys: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.31Lions: +0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 77 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Lions’s 55 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Lions 6.
NoteCowboys outgained Lions 419-410 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 50.0% in week 13 against 66.1% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
DET's pass rate over expected turned over: −22.2 pts in week 13 against +0.9 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 14 pts
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Lions20.0%
right on their number · +3.7 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 66.1%, 10.9 points above their season mean of 55.2% and 1.5 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(9:59) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:59 · Cowboys · 2nd & 5 at DET 42 · gained 42 · +4.05 EP · +12.6% win probability
181 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 187. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
15 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 70 yards from the DAL 30 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
+0.13
Success rate
48%
Yards
827
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.1580%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1976%
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.4440%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+1.0244%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.0933%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.1743%
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Cowboys0Lions3
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 36 to the Cowboys 8
Cowboys3Lions3
Field goal9 plays, from the Cowboys 32 to the Lions 39
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 49
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 5 to the Cowboys 11
Cowboys3Lions9
Cowboys3Lions10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Cowboys 43
2nd quarter54 plays
Cowboys6Lions10
Field goal12 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Lions 15
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 37
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Cowboys 21 to the Lions 42
Cowboys6Lions16
Cowboys6Lions17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Cowboys 35
Cowboys9Lions17
Field goal14 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Lions 37
Cowboys9Lions20
Field goal10 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Cowboys 29
3rd quarter42 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Cowboys9Lions26
Cowboys9Lions27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 14 to the Cowboys 12
Cowboys15Lions27
Cowboys16Lions27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 35 to the Lions 1
No good10 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Cowboys 34
Cowboys19Lions27
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 42 to the Lions 35
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 32 to the Cowboys 47
4th quarter54 plays
Cowboys19Lions30
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 45 to the Cowboys 28
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Cowboys25Lions30
Cowboys27Lions30
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 30 to the Lions 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Cowboys27Lions36
Cowboys27Lions37
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 41 to the Cowboys 10
Cowboys30Lions37
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Lions 11
Cowboys30Lions43
Cowboys30Lions44
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Cowboys 13
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Lions 23
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Lions -3.5
Closing total
55.5
Cowboys moneyline
+160
Lions moneyline
-192
Lions closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 74 — over by 18.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Brian Schottenheimer vs Dan Campbell
DAL +8% win prob
(5:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked in End Zone for -11 yards, SAFETY (46-J.Campbell). The Replay Official reviewed the safety ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 1 for -10 yards (46-J.Campbell).
3rd · 14:55DAL +7% win prob(14:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 3-G.Pickens INTERCEPTED by 55-D.Barnes (21-A.Robertson) at DAL 37. 55-D.Barnes ran ob at DAL 14 for 23 yards (4-D.Prescott).
