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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 14
It turned at Q1 0:05, 2nd and 6, on Brock Bowers — 8.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Denver Broncos 24–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:05, Raiders +8.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:05 · 2nd and 6
Brock Bowers
Raiders
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 9 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Marvin Mims Jr.'s 48-yard return touchdown with 6:44 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Marvin Mims Jr.48-yd return TD48-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+714–77 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 47 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Raiders 3.
Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LV's play-action rate, 5.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 7.1 points clear of the next team along.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected, +10.0 pts, is past their previous high of +5.9 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.2 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Broncos10.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +8.6 vs their 1.4 pts, and they swing ±4.3 week to week (+2.00× that swing) · 72 snaps
Raiders6.0 ptsinside their normal wobble · +7.6 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.84× that swing) · 47 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 92%
Tendencies room →Broncos59.6%inside their normal wobble · +3.6 vs their 56.0%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 57 early downs
Raiders74.3%leaned — passed early · +16.4 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+1.22× that swing) · 35 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 47%
Tendencies room →Broncos34.9%leaned — faked the run · +10.9 vs their 24.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Raiders5.4%off script — dropped back clean · −20.2 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−2.38× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37% to 143%
Fourth Down room →Broncos75.0%leaned — went for it · +39.3 vs their 35.7%, and they swing ±27.2 week to week (+1.45× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Raiders100.0%leaned — went for it · +45.5 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±34.7 week to week (+1.31× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 56%
Tendencies room →Broncos24.3%inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 30.1%, and they swing ±10.3 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders23.3%right on their number · +1.2 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 45%
Tendencies room →Broncos18.9%right on their number · −3.6 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders14.0%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
LV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 20.2 points below their season mean of 25.6% and 2.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · DEN
Bo NixQB
31/38, 212 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
5.9 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected
Passing · LV
13/21, 116 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
-2.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected
Receiving · DEN
6/10 for 62 yds, 0 TD
28% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Shedrick Jackson banked 7.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ HarveyRB · Committee Back | 22.0 | +1.5 | 68% | 70% | 17% | 0% | 17 car, 75 yd, 1 TD · 6/6, 25 yd |
| Bo NixQB · Starter QB | 16.0 | −5.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 31/38, 212 yd · 3 car, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Rotational Receiver | 14.6 | +4.4 | 100% | 97% | 18% | 16% | 4/5, 46 yd, 1 TD |
| Courtland SuttonWR · Alpha Receiver | 12.2 | −5.7 | 65% | 84% | 28% | 62% | 6/10, 62 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Featured Receiver | 11.0 | +1.8 | 82% | 82% | 21% | 19% | 6/6, 50 yd |
| Shedrick JacksonWR · Rotational Receiver | 9.5 | +7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Geno SmithQB · Starter QB | 9.0 | +1.0 | 74% | — | 0% | — | 13/21, 116 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 4 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB | 8.5 | +3.1 | 26% | — | 0% | — | 8/11, 97 yd, 1 TD · 1 car, 6 yd |
| Marvin Mims Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 7.7 | +5.1 | 27% | 37% | 3% | 2% | 1 car, 2 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Pat BryantWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.2 | +0.8 | 47% | 67% | 11% | 12% | 4/4, 32 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.1 | +1.5 | 60% | 74% | 14% | 17% | 3/4, 41 yd |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 5.8 | −4.2 | 70% | 61% | 14% | 7% | 10 car, 30 yd · 2/4, 8 yd |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | +0.9 | 38% | 21% | 8% | 9% | 3/3, 27 yd |
| Adam PrenticeRB | 5.3 | 0.0 | 41% | 28% | 6% | 1% | 2 car, 22 yd · 2/2, 11 yd |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.4 | −3.5 | 94% | 89% | 18% | 30% | 2/5, 24 yd |
| Jaleel McLaughlinRB | 4.1 | +0.7 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 4 car, 22 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Troy FranklinWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.1 | −1.4 | 26% | 40% | 11% | 14% | 3/4, 11 yd |
| Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.4 | 74% | 56% | 6% | 6% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Ian ThomasTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +1.1 | 50% | 37% | 7% | 2% | 2/2, 17 yd |
| Tyler BadieRB | 3.1 | −0.4 | 16% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 4 car, 16 yd · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Evan EngramTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | 0.0 | 36% | 60% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 8 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 1.2 | −0.2 | 30% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| DJ TurnerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:44 · Raiders · 4th & 15 at LV 6 · gained nothing · -4.48 EP · −12.5% win probability
146 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 162 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 91 yards from the DEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Broncos6
Raiders0Broncos7Raiders0Broncos7Raiders6Broncos7Raiders7Broncos13Raiders7Broncos14Raiders7Broncos20Raiders7Broncos21Raiders7Broncos24Raiders7Broncos24Raiders13Broncos24Raiders14Broncos24Raiders17Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Broncos at Raiders, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 31/38 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 17 | 75 | 4.4 | 1 | +2.4 |
| Adam Prentice | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 10 | 62 | 0 | 28% | +1.5 |
| Pat Bryant | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 11% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Singleton | 1 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Talanoa Hufanga | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Moss |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 13/21 | 116 | 1 | 0 | 3 | −2.7 |
| Kenny Pickett | 8/11 | 97 | 1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_14_DEN_LV
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Broncos closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 40.5; the game landed 41 — over by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 22 |
| 5.5 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| Tyler Badie | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Bo Nix | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 1 | +2.3 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| +2.8 |
| Lil'Jordan Humphrey | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 8% | +1.8 |
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 6 | 25 | 0 | 17% | +4.8 |
| Adam Trautman | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 6% | +0.8 |
| Adam Prentice | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | +0.6 |
| Troy Franklin | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 11% | −1.8 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.6 |
| Evan Engram | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Tyler Badie | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | +0.0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| 2 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dre Greenlaw | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jahdae Barron | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pat Surtain II | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nik Bonitto | 3 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Strnad | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Cooper | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Franklin-Myers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| +1.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Bech | 6 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 21% | +3.5 |
| Brock Bowers | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 | 18% | +1.3 |
| Tyler Lockett | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 14% | +1.6 |
| Shedrick Jackson | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1 | 4% | +3.4 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 18% | −1.1 |
| Ian Thomas | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 7% | +1.9 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 14% | −2.5 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 10 | 9 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Chinn | 7 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darien Porter | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
