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Denver Broncos 24, Raiders 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 0:05, 2nd and 6, on Brock Bowers — 8.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:05 · 2nd and 6
Brock Bowers
Raiders
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Broncos closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Denver Broncos 24–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:05, Raiders +8.8% win probability on one snap.
8.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ2 6:44(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.4pts
Bo NixRaidersQ2 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle.
7.3pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 57% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos won this one — 7 of 12 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 9 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Raiders at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Broncos148 of 162 plays carry both curves
(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +8.8 for RaidersExpected points +2.16 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 31 points higher than the market did.play 31
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:05LV +9% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:44DEN +6% win prob(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:10LV +6% win prob(10:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to LV 33 for 14 yards (26-D.Porter).
2nd · 8:39DEN +5% win prob(8:39) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 8 for -8 yards (97-M.Roach).
2nd · 7:24DEN +5% win prob(7:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith sacked at LV 6 for -7 yards (98-J.Franklin-Myers).
2nd · 11:54LV +4% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Marvin Mims Jr.'s 48-yard return touchdown with 6:44 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th0:05Daniel Carlson·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap J.Bobenmoyer+324–17
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryRaiders
Broncos8–0Raiders
356Total yards229
4.9Yards per play4.9
57%Success rate36%
58%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays2
25First downs14
3Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Broncos ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.05Raiders: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.21Broncos: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.01Raiders: −0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Broncos: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.20Raiders: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Raiders’s 47 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Raiders 3.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LV's play-action rate, 5.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 7.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 19.6% in week 12.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, +10.0 pts, is past their previous high of +5.9 pts in week 1 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.3 points.
high through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
DEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 7 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 14.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Raiders14.0%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLV's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 5.4%, 20.2 points below their season mean of 25.6% and 2.4 times their own 8.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Cole punts−13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 6:44 · Raiders · 4th & 15 at LV 6 · gained nothing · -4.48 EP · −12.5% win probability
146 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 162 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 146 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 156. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 91 yards from the DEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
162 of 162 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
162
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
48%
Yards
585
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.0992%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.2395%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.2962%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR19+0.2921%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1660%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.0675%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.0513%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
162 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
162 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Broncos6Raiders0
Broncos7Raiders0
Touchdown19 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Raiders 3
Broncos7Raiders6
Broncos7Raiders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Broncos 15
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 19 to the Raiders 39
Broncos13Raiders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 5 to the Raiders 16
Broncos14Raiders7
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 45
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Raiders 43
The period ended7 plays, from the Raiders 41 to the Raiders 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 33
Broncos20Raiders7
Broncos21Raiders7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Raiders 3
The period ended12 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Broncos 10
4th quarter50 plays
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 5
Broncos24Raiders7
Field goal21 plays, from the Broncos 5 to the Raiders 5
Broncos24Raiders13
Broncos24Raiders14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Broncos 25
The period ended11 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 28
Broncos24Raiders17
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Broncos 28
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
