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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Allegiant Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

24

Las Vegas Raiders

17

DEN -8.5 no coverO 40.5 ✓Dome

Denver Broncos 24–17. Biggest swing: Q1 0:05, LV +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3LV ↑DEN ↓
Q1 · 0:05DEN 7 — LV 6LV ball · 2nd & 6DEN 85%

(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 0:05LV +9% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:03DEN +7% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep middle.
  3. Q2 · 6:44DEN +6% win prob(6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q1 · 10:10LV +6% win prob(10:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 14-C.Sutton to LV 33 for 14 yards (26-D.Porter).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:10DEN Touchdown

    (6:10) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 0
  2. Q1 · 0:05LV Touchdown

    (:05) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 89-B.Bowers for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 7 — LV 7
  3. Q2 · 6:44DEN Touchdown

    (6:44) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to LV 48, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-M.Mims for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 14 — LV 7
  4. Q3 · 4:10DEN Touchdown

    (4:10) 12-R.Harvey up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 21 — LV 7
  5. Q4 · 3:59DEN Field goal

    (3:59) 3-W.Lutz 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LV 7
  6. Q4 · 2:22LV Touchdown

    (2:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 4-S.Jackson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LV 14
  7. Q4 · 0:05LV Field goal

    (:05) 8-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    Score after this play: DEN 24 — LV 17

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosRaiders
Offensive plays7247
Total yards356 (edge)229
Yards per play4.9 (edge)4.9
Expected points added / play0.16 (edge)-0.05
Success rate57% (edge)36%
Dropback rate60%79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.21 (edge)-0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.07 (edge)-0.20
Third downs7/12 (edge)3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)4 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps25 (edge)14
Sacks taken3 (edge)4
Turnovers00

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.05.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

31/38, 212 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

5.9 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Passing · LV

Geno SmithQB

13/21, 116 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-2.7 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

17 att, 75 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LV

Ashton JeantyRB

10 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

6/10 for 62 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Jack BechWR

6/6 for 50 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 1916818:54Touchdown +7
2LVLV 3012706:06Touchdown +7
3DENDEN 1911414:57Punt
4LVLV 55-113:34Defensive touchdown
5LVLV 316141:47Punt
6DENDEN 1210474:20Turnover on downs
7LVLV 41430:19Turnover on downs
8DENLV 44100:03End of half
9LVLV 31521:42Punt
10DENDEN 915869:13Touchdown +7
11LVLV 4013554:52Turnover on downs
12DENDEN 5198510:17Field goal +3
13LVLV 358571:39Touchdown +7
14DENLV 447161:19Turnover on downs
15LVLV 286390:58Field goal +3

6 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 86 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix31/382120035.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
RJ Harvey17754.412.4
Adam Prentice22211.001.9
Jaleel McLaughlin4225.50-0.7
Tyler Badie4164.00-0.3
Bo Nix3155.012.3
Marvin Mims Jr.122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton61062028%1.5
Pat Bryant4432011%2.8
Lil'Jordan Humphrey332708%1.8
RJ Harvey6625017%4.8
Adam Trautman221706%0.8
Adam Prentice221106%0.6
Troy Franklin3411011%-1.8
Jaleel McLaughlin11903%0.6
Evan Engram22806%-0.6
Tyler Badie11503%0.0
Marvin Mims Jr.11503%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton170.000
Talanoa Hufanga410.000
Riley Moss230.000
Dre Greenlaw220.000
Jahdae Barron300.000
Nik Bonitto302.000
Pat Surtain II120.001
Ja'Quan McMillian110.000
John Franklin-Myers111.000
Malcolm Roach201.000

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Geno Smith13/21116103-2.7
Kenny Pickett8/11971011.9

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Ashton Jeanty10303.00-2.0
Kenny Pickett166.000.2
Geno Smith144.00-0.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jack Bech6650021%3.5
Brock Bowers4546118%1.3
Tyler Lockett3441014%1.6
Shedrick Jackson112514%3.4
Tre Tucker2524018%-1.1
Ian Thomas221707%1.9
Ashton Jeanty248014%-2.5
Raheem Mostert11204%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin White1090.000
Jeremy Chinn741.000
Eric Stokes630.000
Darien Porter420.002
Isaiah Pola-Mao410.000
Elandon Roberts230.000
Jonah Laulu230.000
Maxx Crosby221.000
Lonnie Johnson310.000
Thomas Booker120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Closing total
40.5
DEN moneyline
-470
LV moneyline
+360

Broncos closed -8.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 41 — over by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
DEN 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Pete Carroll

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.