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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
TexansHouston20
BY 10final margin
ChiefsKansas City10
Houston Texans 20 at Kansas City Chiefs 10. Final.
Chiefs -4.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 14
Houston Texans 20, Chiefs 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 10:22, 4th and 1, on Patrick Mahomes — 11.5 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:22 · 4th and 1
Patrick Mahomes
Texans
(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].
U 41.5 ✓
29°F
Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 10:22, Texans +11.5% win probability on one snap.
11.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jalen PitreTexansQ2 8:42(8:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at HOU 45. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 43 for -2 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster).
9.9pts
Jayden HigginsTexansQ4 13:35(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 81-J.Higgins to HOU 26 for 17 yards (27-C.Conner).
11.2pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.00 expected points per dropback, against Chiefs at -0.44 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans won this one — 8 of 18 on third down, against Chiefs at 4 of 14 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Chiefs at -0.29 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Texans168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].
Swing −11.5 for ChiefsExpected points −3.48 for ChiefsThe model had Texans 5 points higher than the market did.play 142
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 10:22HOU +11% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].
4th · 13:35KC +11% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 81-J.Higgins to HOU 26 for 17 yards (27-C.Conner).
2nd · 8:42HOU +10% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at HOU 45. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 43 for -2 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster).
2nd · 12:09KC +9% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at KC 7 for 53 yards (35-J.Watson).
1st · 7:38HOU +8% win prob(7:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 15-P.Mahomes to KC 31 for -10 yards (51-W.Anderson).
2nd · 1:03HOU +8% win prob(1:03) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dare Ogunbowale's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 7:00 left in the 4th put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:22Ka'imi Fairbairn·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+33–0
3rd1:54Harrison Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Araiza · snap J.Winchester+310–10
4th7:00Dare Ogunbowale·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–10
4th0:33Ka'imi Fairbairn·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap A.Brinkman+320–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChiefs
Texans3–6Chiefs
268Total yards274
4.1Yards per play4.3
32%Success rate37%
44%Third-down rate29%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays4
12First downs14
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.29Chiefs: −0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Texans: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.44Chiefs: −0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.02Chiefs: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 65 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Chiefs 2.
NoteChiefs outgained Texans 274-268 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 25.7%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.7% in week 3.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
HOU's blitz rate sent turned over: 42.9% in week 13 against 12.2% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
HOU's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 50.0% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 15 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +2.1 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chiefs25.7%
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+1.50× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.7%, 8.6 points above their season mean of 17.1% and 1.5 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Ogunbowale up+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 7:00 · Texans · 1st & goal at KC 5 · gained 5 · +1.36 EP · +14.1% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 174. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 90 yards from the HOU 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
34%
Yards
542
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1974%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.5962%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.3747%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.1711%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.110%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Texans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Chiefs0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 33 to the Chiefs 39
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 37
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 41
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Texans3Chiefs0
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Chiefs 12
The period ended9 plays, from the Chiefs 23 to the Texans 47
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Texans9Chiefs0
Texans10Chiefs0
Touchdown13 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Chiefs 7
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 36
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 43 to the Chiefs 42
The period ended14 plays, from the Chiefs 3 to the Texans 22
The period ended9 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 45
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt5 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans10Chiefs6
Texans10Chiefs7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Texans 2
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Texans 37
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 44
Punt4 plays
Texans10Chiefs10
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Texans 18
Punt5 plays
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter49 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 16 to the Texans 35
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 31
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Texans16Chiefs10
Texans17Chiefs10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chiefs 31 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 41
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 41 to the Chiefs 38
Intercepted2 plays
Texans20Chiefs10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 9
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Chiefs 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -4.5
Closing total
41.5
Texans moneyline
+180
Chiefs moneyline
-218
Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Freezing, 29°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the north; overcast.
Referee
Alan Eck
Rest
Texans 7 days · Chiefs 10 days
Coaches
DeMeco Ryans vs Andy Reid
1st · 6:45
KC +8% win prob
(6:45) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 12-N.Collins to KC 21 for 46 yards (22-T.McDuffie). KC-22-T.McDuffie was injured during the play.
3rd · 3:48KC +8% win prob(3:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left guard to HOU 26 for 15 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
