2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Houston TexansWinner

Kansas City Chiefs

KC -4.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓27°FChiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Houston Texans 20–10. Biggest swing: Q4 10:22, HOU +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:22HOU 10 — KC 10KC ball · 4th & 1KC 54%

(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:22HOU +11% win prob(10:22) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice (24-D.Stingley) [51-W.Anderson].
Q4 · 13:35KC +11% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 81-J.Higgins to HOU 26 for 17 yards (27-C.Conner).
Q2 · 8:42HOU +10% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 9-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 5-J.Pitre at HOU 45. 5-J.Pitre to HOU 43 for -2 yards (9-J.Smith-Schuster).
Q2 · 12:09KC +9% win prob(12:09) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep middle to 12-N.Collins pushed ob at KC 7 for 53 yards (35-J.Watson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 4:22HOU Field goal
(4:22) 15-K.Fairbairn 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 3 — KC 0
Q2 · 9:29HOU Touchdown
(9:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 27-W.Marks for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [32-N.Bolton]. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 0
Q3 · 9:59KC Touchdown
(9:59) (Shotgun) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 7
Q3 · 1:54KC Field goal
(1:54) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
Score after this play: HOU 10 — KC 10
Q4 · 7:00HOU Touchdown
(7:00) (Shotgun) 33-D.Ogunbowale up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: HOU 17 — KC 10
Q4 · 0:33HOU Field goal
(:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Score after this play: HOU 20 — KC 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Chiefs
Offensive plays	65	63
Total yards	268	274 (edge)
Yards per play	4.1	4.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.29
Success rate	32%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	54%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.44
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	-0.02 (edge)
Third downs	8/18 (edge)	4/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	4 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	12	14 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	2 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Chiefs outgained Texans 274–268 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

15/31, 203 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.2 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

14/33, 160 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT

-22.3 expected points added · -14.9% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Woody MarksRB

26 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

-5.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

7 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

4/8 for 121 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.7 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Xavier WorthyWR

3/4 for 55 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 3.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 33	5	6	1:16	Punt
2	HOU	HOU 13	8	19	4:28	Punt
3	KC	KC 25	5	6	2:31	Punt
4	HOU	HOU 33	5	60	2:27	Field goal +3
5	KC	KC 23	9	28	4:24	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 10	11	90	5:30	Touchdown +7
7	KC	KC 35	3	1	0:50	Interception
8	HOU	HOU 43	7	15	3:03	Punt
9	KC	KC 3	12	57	4:31	Missed field goal
10	HOU	HOU 33	5	17	1:00	End of half
11	HOU	HOU 17	5	-4	1:00	Punt
12	KC	KC 44	9	56	4:08	Touchdown +7
13	HOU	HOU 35	5	2	0:49	Punt
14	KC	KC 4	8	42	3:27	Punt
15	HOU	HOU 12	4	0	1:01	Punt
16	KC	HOU 48	7	30	2:45	Field goal +3
17	HOU	HOU 23	5	0	1:06	Punt
18	KC	KC 38	3	4	0:51	Interception
19	HOU	HOU 16	7	19	3:28	Punt
20	KC	KC 22	4	9	1:07	Turnover on downs
21	HOU	KC 31	7	31	3:22	Touchdown +7
22	KC	KC 35	5	6	1:30	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	KC 41	4	3	1:42	Punt
24	KC	KC 8	2	0	0:12	Interception
25	HOU	KC 26	7	16	3:02	Field goal +3
26	KC	KC 30	4	29	0:30	End of game

6 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 90 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
C.J. Stroud	15/31	203	1	0	3	0.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Woody Marks	26	68	2.6	0	-5.3
C.J. Stroud	2	5	2.5	0	0.3
Dare Ogunbowale	1	5	5.0	1	1.4
Nick Chubb	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Jaylin Noel	1	1	1.0	0	-1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nico Collins	4	8	121	0	30%	3.7
Jayden Higgins	3	5	34	0	19%	3.0
Dalton Schultz	3	4	22	0	15%	0.0
Jaylin Noel	2	2	12	0	7%	0.6
Woody Marks	2	3	8	1	11%	2.7
Christian Kirk	1	3	6	0	11%	-1.9
Xavier Hutchinson	0	2	0	0	7%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tommy Togiai	2	8	1.0	0	0
Myles Bryant	2	4	0.0	0	0
Kamari Lassiter	5	1	0.0	1	2
Jalen Pitre	4	2	0.0	1	2
Azeez Al-Shaair	1	4	0.0	1	1
Danielle Hunter	2	2	0.0	0	1
Sheldon Rankins	2	2	0.5	0	0
Dare Ogunbowale	1	2	0.0	0	0
Will Anderson Jr.	2	1	0.0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'o	1	2	0.0	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	14/33	160	0	3	2	-22.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	7	59	8.4	0	4.2
Isiah Pacheco	9	30	3.3	0	-2.4
Kareem Hunt	12	30	2.5	1	1.7
Brashard Smith	1	7	7.0	0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Xavier Worthy	3	4	55	14%	3.0
Marquise Brown	1	2	35	7%	0.8
Rashee Rice	4	8	34	28%	-8.7
Tyquan Thornton	2	3	19	10%	1.1
Noah Gray	1	3	14	10%	-2.2
Travis Kelce	1	5	8	17%	-5.2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1	2	5	7%	-1.3
Kareem Hunt	0	1	0	3%	-1.9
Patrick Mahomes	1	1	-10	3%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Nick Bolton	6	6	0.0	0
Drue Tranquill	4	6	0.0	0
Mike Edwards	6	1	0.0	0
Bryan Cook	1	4	0.0	0
George Karlaftis	3	2	1.0	0
Chamarri Conner	3	1	0.0	0
Leo Chenal	2	1	0.0	0
Nohl Williams	2	1	0.0	2
Jaylen Watson	2	0	0.0	0
Ashton Gillotte	1	1	0.5	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -4.5
Closing total: 41.5
HOU moneyline: +180
KC moneyline: -218

Chiefs closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 30 — under by 11.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 27°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Alan Eck
Rest: HOU 7 days · KC 10 days
Coaches: DeMeco Ryans vs Andy Reid