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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
ColtsIndianapolis19
BY 17final margin
JaguarsJacksonville36
Indianapolis Colts 19 at Jacksonville Jaguars 36. Final.
Colts -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 36, Colts 19 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:04, 1st and 10, on Devin Lloyd — 12.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:04 · 1st and 10
Devin Lloyd
Jaguars
(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
O 44.5 ✓
Colts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 36–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:04, Jaguars +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brian Thomas Jr.JaguarsQ1 3:54(3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (7-C.Ward).
9.8pts
Bhayshul TutenColtsQ2 2:40(2:40) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-53-G.Pratt at IND 46. 53-G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard (76-E.Cleveland; 85-B.Strange).
11.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — 1 giveaway, against Colts at 3 giveaways.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Colts at -0.09 expected points per dropback.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.19 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 3 chunk plays.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Colts168 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
Swing +12.3 for JaguarsExpected points +5.39 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 13 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:04IND +12% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
2nd · 2:40IND +11% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-53-G.Pratt at IND 46. 53-G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard (76-E.Cleveland; 85-B.Strange).
1st · 3:54JAX +10% win prob(3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (7-C.Ward).
2nd · 1:37JAX +10% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-T.Patrick ran ob at IND 23 for 37 yards (40-J.Jones).
2nd · 12:59JAX +8% win prob(12:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:09IND +8% win prob(13:09) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 29 for 4 yards (52-D.Hamilton, 29-E.Murray). FUMBLES (29-E.Murray), RECOVERED by JAX-22-J.Jones at IND 28. 22-J.Jones to IND 28 for no gain (14-A.Pierce).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jakobi Meyers's 14-yard touchdown catch with 2:32 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
3rd10:01Blake Grupe·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+313–28
4th14:09Cam Little·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+313–31
4th7:01Josh Hines-Allen·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+213–33
4th4:45Cam Little·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+313–36
4th1:56Riley Leonard·6-yd TD run6-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+619–36
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryJaguars
Colts1–7Jaguars
286Total yards351
4.5Yards per play5.8
37%Success rate42%
55%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays6
18First downs18
1Sacks taken0
3Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Colts: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.09Jaguars: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.38Jaguars: +0.38 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.37Colts: −0.37 expected points added per play
−0.26Jaguars: −0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 63 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 60 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Colts 4, Jaguars 7.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 21 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.7 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−1.69× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars12.5%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
NoteIND's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.7 points below their season mean of 12.7% and 1.7 times their own 7.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
Q1 13:04 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 20 · gained nothing · -5.39 EP · −14.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 171. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 76 yards from the IND 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
42%
Yards
635
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.2965%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2456%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0558%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0645%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1350%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2720%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 40
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Colts0Jaguars6
Colts0Jaguars7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Colts 3
Colts6Jaguars7
Colts7Jaguars7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Jaguars 1
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Colts7Jaguars13
Colts7Jaguars14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Colts 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 42
2nd quarter60 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 31
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Colts 25
Colts7Jaguars20
Colts7Jaguars21
Touchdown2 plays
Colts10Jaguars21
Field goal18 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Jaguars 9
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Colts 45
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Jaguars 44
Colts10Jaguars27
Colts10Jaguars28
Touchdown20 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Colts 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Colts13Jaguars28
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Jaguars 16
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays
The period ended11 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Colts 23
4th quarter42 plays
Colts13Jaguars31
Field goal3 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Jaguars 49
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Colts 9
Colts13Jaguars33
Colts13Jaguars36
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Colts 28
Colts19Jaguars36
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Jaguars 6
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
