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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Indianapolis Colts

19

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

36

IND -2.5 upsetO 44.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 36–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:04, IND +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑IND ↓
Q1 · 13:04IND 0 — JAX 0IND ball · 1st & 10IND 61%

(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:04IND +12% win prob(13:04) (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Lloyd at IND 27. 0-D.Lloyd to IND 21 for 6 yards (2-J.Downs).
  2. Q2 · 2:40IND +11% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten left end to IND 46 for -1 yards (90-G.Stewart). FUMBLES (90-G.Stewart), RECOVERED by IND-53-G.Pratt at IND 46. 53-G.Pratt to IND 47 for 1 yard (76-E.Cleveland; 85-B.Strange).
  3. Q1 · 3:54JAX +10% win prob(3:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 30 for 39 yards (7-C.Ward).
  4. Q2 · 1:37JAX +10% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 17-T.Patrick ran ob at IND 23 for 37 yards (40-J.Jones).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:44JAX Touchdown

    (10:44) 1-T.Etienne up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 0 — JAX 7
  2. Q1 · 4:39IND Touchdown

    (4:39) 28-J.Taylor up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 7
  3. Q1 · 2:32JAX Touchdown

    (2:32) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 14
  4. Q2 · 12:59JAX Touchdown

    (12:59) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 7 — JAX 21
  5. Q2 · 4:57IND Field goal

    (4:57) 10-B.Grupe 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 10 — JAX 21
  6. Q2 · 0:15JAX Touchdown

    (:15) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 17-T.Patrick for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on IND-40-J.Jones, Illegal Contact, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 10 — JAX 28
  7. Q3 · 10:01IND Field goal

    (10:01) 10-B.Grupe 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — JAX 28
  8. Q4 · 14:09JAX Field goal

    (14:09) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — JAX 31
  9. Q4 · 7:01JAX Safety

    (7:01) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard pass incomplete short left to 84-T.Warren [41-J.Hines-Allen]. Jacksonville challenged the passer was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard sacked in End Zone for -9 yards, SAFETY (41-J.Hines-Allen).

    Score after this play: IND 13 — JAX 33
  10. Q4 · 4:45JAX Field goal

    (4:45) 39-C.Little 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — JAX 36
  11. Q4 · 1:56IND Touchdown

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 15-R.Leonard scrambles up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: IND 19 — JAX 36

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsJaguars
Offensive plays6360
Total yards286351 (edge)
Yards per play4.55.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.190.09 (edge)
Success rate37%42% (edge)
Dropback rate63%55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.38 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.37-0.26 (edge)
Third downs6/11 (edge)7/14
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1818
Sacks taken10 (edge)
Turnovers31 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

17/30, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

11.4 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Riley LeonardQB

18/29, 145 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.2 expected points added · -1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

21 att, 74 yds, 1 TD

-8.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

20 att, 74 yds, 2 TD

-6.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Brian Thomas Jr.WR

3/6 for 87 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · IND

Alec PierceWR

5/8 for 80 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 266141:56Punt
2INDIND 20100:10Interception
3JAXIND 215262:15Touchdown +7
4INDIND 2413766:07Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 267742:05Touchdown +7
6INDIND 355122:40Punt
7JAXJAX 29421:00Punt
8INDIND 19290:48Fumble
9JAXIND 282280:07Touchdown +7
10INDIND 2717617:58Field goal +3
11JAXJAX 295252:25Fumble
12INDIND 47430:44Turnover on downs
13JAXJAX 4513651:38Touchdown +7
14INDIND 30200:07End of half
15INDIND 269505:03Field goal +3
16JAXJAX 22501:02Punt
17INDIND 31432:09Punt
18JAXJAX 2412697:41Field goal +3
19INDIND 354161:15Interception
20JAXJAX 4510465:49Turnover on downs
21INDIND 91-90:04Safety
22JAXIND 31522:16Field goal +3
23INDIND 3514652:50Touchdown +6
24JAXJAX 31401:51End of game

10 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 76 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Riley Leonard18/29145011-4.2
Daniel Jones5/760010-1.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor21743.51-8.6
Riley Leonard252.512.2
Daniel Jones144.00-0.1
Ameer Abdullah144.00-0.8
Tyler Warren122.000.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Alec Pierce5880022%6.0
Michael Pittman91279033%-4.7
Josh Downs4523014%1.3
Tyler Warren2615017%-2.3
Ameer Abdullah22506%-1.3
Anthony Gould11303%-0.4
Mo Alie-Cox02006%-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Zaire Franklin250.000
JT Tuimoloau330.000
Germaine Pratt240.001
Nick Cross320.002
Grover Stewart310.000
Kenny Moore II310.001
Charvarius Ward310.003
Jaylon Jones400.000
Mekhi Blackmon300.000
Samson Ebukam210.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence17/3024420011.4
Nick Mullens1/13000-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Travis Etienne20743.72-6.2
Trevor Lawrence4164.004.7
Jakobi Meyers393.000.5
Bhayshul Tuten252.50-4.5
Nick Mullens3-1-0.300.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Brian Thomas Jr.3687019%5.6
Tim Patrick5678119%8.8
Jakobi Meyers41039132%-1.8
Brenton Strange3627019%-0.8
Travis Etienne11803%0.3
LeQuint Allen Jr.22806%-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Devin Lloyd170.011
Antonio Johnson620.000
Foye Oluokun430.002
Travon Walker240.000
Josh Hines-Allen231.000
Greg Newsome II500.012
Jarrian Jones220.000
Matt Dickerson120.000
Jack Kiser120.000
DaVon Hamilton200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
IND -2.5
Closing total
44.5
IND moneyline
-135
JAX moneyline
+114

Colts closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 55 — over by 10.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
61°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
IND 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Liam Coen

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.