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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · State Farm Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles45
BY 28final margin
CardinalsArizona17
Los Angeles Rams 45 at Arizona Cardinals 17. Final.
Rams -9.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 14
Los Angeles Rams 45, Cardinals 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:17, 2nd and 7, on Trey McBride — 6.8 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:17 · 2nd and 7
Trey McBride
Cardinals
(14:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to LA 37 for 27 yards (0-B.Young) [30-J.Wallace].
Dome
Rams closed -9.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Los Angeles Rams 45–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:17, Cardinals +6.8% win probability on one snap.
6.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyren WilliamsRamsQ1 9:55(9:55) 23-K.Williams right tackle to ARI 32 for 18 yards (3-B.Baker; 36-K.Crawford).
6.0pts
Harrison MevisCardinalsQ1 7:43(7:43) 92-H.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
6.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 64% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.44 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.06 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.04 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 43 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(14:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to LA 37 for 27 yards (0-B.Young) [30-J.Wallace].
Swing +6.8 for CardinalsExpected points +2.06 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 38 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:17ARI +7% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride to LA 37 for 27 yards (0-B.Young) [30-J.Wallace].
1st · 7:43LA +6% win prob(7:43) 92-H.Mevis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-42-E.Evans.
1st · 9:55ARI +6% win prob(9:55) 23-K.Williams right tackle to ARI 32 for 18 yards (3-B.Baker; 36-K.Crawford).
1st · 3:37ARI +6% win prob(3:37) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 32 yards (21-G.Williams).
1st · 12:10ARI +5% win prob(12:10) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 14-M.Wilson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:35ARI +5% win prob(13:35) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-M.Wilson to LA 38 for 14 yards (4-A.Witherspoon).
1st · 13:36
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Kyren Williams's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 2:50 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Rams ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.44Rams: +0.44 expected points added per play
−0.06Cardinals: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.50Rams: +0.50 expected points added per play
−0.07Cardinals: −0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.38Rams: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 64 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 82%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Cardinals 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.44 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's blitz rate sent, 9.7%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 13.6% in week 2.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 13.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 79.2%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.9 points clear of the next team along.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.9 points.
LA's play-action rate turned over: 53.3% in week 13 against 29.0% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +4.1 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.47× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Cardinals6.5%
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NoteARI's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.7%, 14.9 points below their season mean of 24.5% and 1.6 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass+9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:37) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua to ARI 23 for 32 yards (21-G.Williams).
Q1 3:37 · Rams · 1st & 10 at LA 45 · gained 32 · +2.31 EP · +9.4% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 173. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 92 yards from the LA 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
50%
Yards
844
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR40+0.3930%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.3183%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24+0.5279%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18+0.2078%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.3888%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Rams0Cardinals6
Rams0Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 33 to the Rams 19
Rams3Cardinals7
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Cardinals 8
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 31
Rams9Cardinals7
Rams10Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 22
2nd quarter46 plays
Rams10Cardinals10
Field goal11 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Rams 12
Rams16Cardinals10
Rams17Cardinals10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Cardinals 2
Punt5 plays
Rams23Cardinals10
Rams24Cardinals10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Cardinals 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Rams 45
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter47 plays
Rams30Cardinals10
Rams31Cardinals10
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Cardinals 6
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Cardinals 40
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Cardinals 45
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 14
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 39 to the Rams 46
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Cardinals 22
Rams37Cardinals10
Rams38Cardinals10
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Punt2 plays
Rams44Cardinals10
Rams45Cardinals10
Touchdown2 plays
Rams45Cardinals16
Rams45Cardinals17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Rams 14
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Rams 46
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Rams 16
The period ended9 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
