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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · MetLife Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

34

New York Jets

10

MIA -2.5 ✓O 41.5 ✓

Miami Dolphins 34–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:42, NYJ +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NYJ ↑MIA ↓
Q1 · 13:42MIA 0 — NYJ 0MIA ball · 1st & 10MIA 64%

(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 13:42NYJ +9% win prob(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
  2. Q1 · 8:54NYJ +4% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-94-T.Baron was injured during the play.
  3. Q1 · 11:44NYJ +4% win prob(11:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to MIA 43 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).
  4. Q1 · 14:22NYJ +4% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Waddle right end ran ob at NYJ 42 for 21 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 12:50MIA Touchdown

    (12:50) (Shotgun) 64-D.Brunskill reported in as eligible. 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Briggs]. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 7 — NYJ 0
  2. Q1 · 8:54MIA Touchdown

    (8:54) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-94-T.Baron was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 14 — NYJ 0
  3. Q1 · 3:41MIA Touchdown

    (3:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Wright up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 21 — NYJ 0
  4. Q1 · 0:42NYJ Touchdown

    (:42) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to NYJ 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 21 — NYJ 7
  5. Q2 · 2:00MIA Field goal

    (2:00) 47-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 24 — NYJ 7
  6. Q4 · 12:17NYJ Field goal

    (12:17) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: MIA 24 — NYJ 10
  7. Q4 · 6:26MIA Touchdown

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 31-O.Gordon left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIA 31 — NYJ 10
  8. Q4 · 2:29MIA Field goal

    (2:29) 47-R.Patterson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    Score after this play: MIA 34 — NYJ 10

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricDolphinsJets
Offensive plays6157
Total yards360 (edge)207
Yards per play5.9 (edge)3.6
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)-0.45
Success rate54% (edge)33%
Dropback rate36%70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.08 (edge)-0.60
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.28 (edge)-0.10
Third downs2/10 (edge)1/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)10 (edge)3
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)11
Sacks taken1 (edge)6
Turnovers0 (edge)3

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.45.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYJ

Brady CookQB

14/30, 163 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-17.8 expected points added · -18.2% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

13/21, 127 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

1.7 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Jaylen WrightRB

24 att, 107 yds, 1 TD

2.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

De'Von AchaneRB

7 att, 92 yds, 1 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYJ

Mason TaylorTE

5/8 for 51 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · -2.2 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Jaylen WaddleWR

5/7 for 50 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 316642:14Touchdown +7
2NYJNYJ 41531:02Punt
3MIAMIA 206802:56Touchdown +7
4NYJNYJ 20461:21Interception
5MIANYJ 297343:48Touchdown +7
6NYJNYJ 35591:32Punt
7MIAMIA 12481:47Defensive touchdown
8MIAMIA 337141:18Punt
9NYJNYJ 13492:17Punt
10MIAMIA 414-41:52Punt
11NYJNYJ 204132:43Punt
12MIAMIA 207455:14Field goal +3
13NYJNYJ 35771:26Interception
14MIAMIA 5450:20Punt
15NYJMIA 46200:10End of half
16NYJNYJ 327162:49Punt
17MIAMIA 7461:39Punt
18NYJNYJ 27572:10Punt
19MIAMIA 2910345:44Punt
20NYJNYJ 2312705:25Field goal +3
21MIAMIA 3311675:55Touchdown +7
22NYJNYJ 368161:48Turnover on downs
23MIANYJ 42672:06Field goal +3
24NYJNYJ 408511:10Interception
25MIAMIA 20201:14End of game

7 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tua Tagovailoa13/211271011.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jaylen Wright241074.512.7
De'Von Achane79213.116.0
Jaylen Waddle12121.001.5
Ollie Gordon II5173.411.2
Darren Waller144.000.4
Tua Tagovailoa100.00-0.9
Zach Wilson2-2-1.000.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaylen Waddle5750133%3.6
Greg Dulcich3341014%3.4
De'Von Achane111305%1.5
Darren Waller1313014%-1.3
Malik Washington3410019%-1.8
Jaylen Wright030014%-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ashtyn Davis420.001
Jordyn Brooks410.000
K.J. Britt140.000
Minkah Fitzpatrick220.000
Zach Sieler312.500
Ifeatu Melifonwu301.000
Willie Gay Jr.211.001
Ethan Bonner210.011
Matthew Judon210.000
Tyrel Dodson110.011

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brady Cook14/30163026-17.8
Tyrod Taylor1/46010-6.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Breece Hall14433.10-3.5
Isaiah Davis22211.004.1
Brady Cook100.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mason Taylor5851025%-2.2
John Metchie III4834025%-4.1
Isaiah Williams232409%1.4
Adonai Mitchell1624019%-8.3
Jeremy Ruckert231909%0.3
Andrew Beck111703%1.1
Breece Hall01003%-1.0
Stone Smartt01003%-0.5
Allen Lazard01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jamien Sherwood690.002
Isaiah Oliver540.002
Quincy Williams251.000
Malachi Moore430.000
Francisco Mauigoa240.000
Mykal Walker130.001
Harrison Phillips130.000
Khalen Saunders120.000
Jowon Briggs120.000
Khalil Herbert110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
MIA -2.5
Closing total
41.5
MIA moneyline
-148
NYJ moneyline
+124

Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
41°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
MIA 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Aaron Glenn

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.