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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:11 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins162 of 172 plays carry both curves
(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
Swing −8.9 for JetsExpected points −3.08 for JetsThe model had Jets 16 points higher than the market did.play 6
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:42NYJ +9% win prob(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
1st · 8:54NYJ +4% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-94-T.Baron was injured during the play.
1st · 11:44NYJ +4% win prob(11:44) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 85-G.Dulcich to MIA 43 for 23 yards (26-I.Oliver).
1st · 14:22NYJ +4% win prob(14:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Waddle right end ran ob at NYJ 42 for 21 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
2nd · 1:25NYJ +4% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass incomplete deep left to 18-I.Williams. PENALTY on MIA-29-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play.
1st · 7:35MIA +3% win prob(7:35) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete short left to 85-M.Taylor. Miami challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left intended for 85-M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by 25-T.Dodson at NYJ 29. 25-T.Dodson to NYJ 29 for no gain.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jaylen Waddle's 3-yard touchdown catch with 12:50 left in the 1st put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:50Jaylen Waddle·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+77–0
1st0:42Isaiah Williams·78-yd return TD78-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+721–7
2nd2:00Riley Patterson·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+324–7
4th12:17Nick Folk·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder A.McNamara · snap T.Hennessy+324–10
4th6:26Ollie Gordon II·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdown+731–10
4th2:29Riley Patterson·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+334–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins9–0Jets
360Total yards207
5.9Yards per play3.6
54%Success rate33%
20%Third-down rate8%
4Red-zone touchdowns0
10Explosive plays3
22First downs11
1Sacks taken6
0Turnovers3
The read
Dolphins ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.60 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Dolphins: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.45Jets: −0.45 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Dolphins: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.60Jets: −0.60 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Dolphins: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.10Jets: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 61 snaps at a 36% dropback rate against Jets’s 57 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 4, Jets 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.45.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NYJ's blitz rate sent, 50.0%, was the highest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.5 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 39.4% in week 3.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's early-down pass rate, 31.4%, was the lowest of the 28 team-games charted in week 14 — 4.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 37.2% in week 4.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.9 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 20.0% in week 7 — the lowest of their 10 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 12 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 27.0 points.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
MIA's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 4 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 23.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +7.2 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.4 week to week (+1.63× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Jets13.6%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
NoteNYJ's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 50.0%, 20.2 points above their season mean of 29.8% and 2.2 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
48 dressed · 6 inactive
72Jonah SavaiinaeaG · Every snap100%65 snaps
52Patrick PaulT · Every snap100%65 snaps
69Cole StrangeG · Full-time97%63 snaps
1Tua TagovailoaQB · Full-time89%58 snaps
55Aaron BrewerC · Full-time89%58 snaps
73Austin JacksonT · Full-time89%58 snaps
17Jaylen WaddleWR · Heavy rotation78%51 snaps
85Greg DulcichTE · Heavy rotation54%35 snaps
6Malik WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
5Jaylen WrightRB · Heavy rotation52%34 snaps
89Julian HillTE · Heavy rotation51%33 snaps
83Darren WallerTE · Rotational37%24 snaps
18Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR · Rotational34%22 snaps
30Alec IngoldFB · Rotational34%22 snaps
28De'Von AchaneRB · Rotational34%22 snaps
64Daniel BrunskillC · Rotational29%19 snaps
31Ollie Gordon IIRB · Rotational25%16 snaps
19Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR · Situational20%13 snaps
79Larry BoromT · Situational11%7 snaps
82Dee EskridgeWR · Situational11%7 snaps
0Zach WilsonQB · Situational11%7 snaps
71Kion SmithG · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
A.J. GreenCBMatthew ButlerDTAndre Carter IIOLBQuinn EwersQBKendall LammTTahj WashingtonWR
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Achane left+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:42) 28-D.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (51-F.Mauigoa).
Q1 13:42 · Dolphins · 1st & 10 at NYJ 42 · gained 39 · +3.08 EP · +13.0% win probability
160 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 167. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
46%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.5976%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1550%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR12-0.2433%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3873%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.4938%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.940%
Dolphins2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR5+0.390%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Dolphins3 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Dolphins6Jets0
Dolphins7Jets0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Jets 3
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 41 to the Jets 44
Dolphins13Jets0
Dolphins14Jets0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jets 13
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 26
Dolphins20Jets0
Dolphins21Jets0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Jets 2
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 44
Dolphins21Jets6
Touchdown4 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Dolphins 20
Dolphins21Jets7
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 46 to the Dolphins 47
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 22
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 45
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 28
Dolphins24Jets7
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jets 21
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Dolphins 16
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 5 to the Dolphins 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Dolphins 47
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 7 to the Dolphins 13
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 27 to the Jets 42
Punt11 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Jets 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jets 44
4th quarter48 plays
Dolphins24Jets10
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 41 to the Dolphins 7
Dolphins30Jets10
Dolphins31Jets10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 33 to the Jets 7
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Dolphins 45
Dolphins34Jets10
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 29
Intercepted8 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Dolphins 9
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Dolphins -2.5
Closing total
41.5
Dolphins moneyline
-148
Jets moneyline
+124
Dolphins closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 41°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Dolphins 7 days · Jets 7 days
Coaches
Mike McDaniel vs Aaron Glenn
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 0:37MIA +3% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass deep left intended for 3-J.Metchie INTERCEPTED by 26-R.Douglas at MIA 0. 26-R.Douglas to MIA 5 for 5 yards (32-I.Davis).
1st · 9:35NYJ +3% win prob(9:35) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to 17-J.Waddle pushed ob at NYJ 13 for 24 yards (26-I.Oliver).
