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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
24
20
New Orleans Saints 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 8:34, TB +16% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
How the points landed
(12:31) (Shotgun) 24-D.Neal up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 0(8:06) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 7-B.Irving for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 7(9:15) 4-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: NO 7 — TB 10(11:35) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough left end for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — TB 10(7:40) (No Huddle) 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 14 — TB 17(1:36) 39-C.Smyth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
Score after this play: NO 17 — TB 17(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: NO 24 — TB 17(4:58) 4-C.McLaughlin 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
Score after this play: NO 24 — TB 20Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Saints | Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 53 | 69 |
| Total yards | 263 | 301 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.0 (edge) | 4.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.02 (edge) | -0.18 |
| Success rate | 40% (edge) | 39% |
| Dropback rate | 45% | 51% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.16 (edge) | -0.23 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.10 (edge) | -0.12 |
| Third downs | 5/11 (edge) | 3/13 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 8 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
13/20, 144 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
1.8 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
14/30, 122 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.8 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected
Receiving · TB
5/8 for 55 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO | TB 45 | 8 | 45 | 2:36 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 2 | TB | TB 33 | 9 | 62 | 4:27 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | NO | NO 23 | 5 | -1 | 1:47 | Punt | |
| 4 | TB | TB 20 | 8 | 33 | 5:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | NO | TB 48 | 6 | 18 | 2:16 | Missed field goal | |
| 6 | TB | TB 38 | 6 | 0 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 7 | NO | NO 16 | 1 | 0 | 0:31 | Interception | |
| 8 | TB | NO 40 | 5 | 17 | 1:57 | Field goal +3 | |
| 9 | NO | NO 28 | 5 | -5 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 10 | TB | TB 28 | 7 | 23 | 3:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | NO | NO 49 | 4 | 17 | 1:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | TB | TB 45 | 8 | 18 | 0:53 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | TB | TB 20 | 5 | 21 | 2:14 | Interception | |
| 14 | NO | TB 47 | 4 | 47 | 1:19 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 15 | TB | TB 35 | 9 | 46 | 3:50 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 16 | NO | NO 35 | 12 | 57 | 6:05 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | TB | TB 28 | 8 | 26 | 3:44 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | NO | NO 47 | 10 | 53 | 4:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 19 | TB | TB 40 | 10 | 46 | 3:32 | Field goal +3 | |
| 20 | NO | NO 18 | 11 | 32 | 3:06 | Punt | |
| 21 | TB | TB 20 | 4 | 9 | 0:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | NO | TB 29 | 2 | 0 | 1:21 | End of game |
8 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 62 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 13/20 | 144 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 | -4.2 |
| Tyler Shough | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 2 | 3.1 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 25% | 3.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 20% | 2.9 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carl Granderson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/30 | 122 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| -1.4 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 5% | 1.8 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | 2.0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | 0.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -0.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | -1.0 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rumph II | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quincy Riley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -6.8 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 | 2.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | 2.7 |
| Sean Tucker | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 1 | -1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 29% | -0.6 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 11% | 1.7 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | -1.1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 32% | -2.8 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | 0.0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | -1.0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | -5.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Izien | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zyon McCollum | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
