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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 14
It turned at Q4 8:34, 1st and 10, on Tyler Shough — 15.5 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 8:34, Saints +15.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:34 · 1st and 10
Tyler Shough
Saints
(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 4 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints won this one — 5 of 11 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 13 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Saints won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.23 expected points per dropback.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.02 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 12.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 26 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Tyler Shough's 13-yard rushing touchdown with 8:34 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Saints ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 53 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 69 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Buccaneers 3.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's early-down pass rate, 36.6%, is past their previous low of 44.4% in week 10 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
NO's sack or hit rate, 5.7%, is past their previous low of 9.5% in week 3 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.1 points. · −1.7σ from their own normal
TB's fourth-and-short go rate, 85.7%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 12 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 14.
7 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.4 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −12.7 pts, is past their previous low of −10.0 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.4σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-12.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.3 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 53 snaps
Buccaneers-14.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −10.9 vs their -3.3 pts, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 22% to 89%
Tendencies room →Saints36.6%leaned — ran early · −22.2 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−1.90× that swing) · 41 early downs
Buccaneers46.9%inside their normal wobble · −7.3 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 49 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -4% to 38%
Tendencies room →Saints12.5%inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.90× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
Buccaneers17.1%right on their number · +0.1 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22% to 112%
Fourth Down room →Saints33.3%inside their normal wobble · −15.5 vs their 48.8%, and they swing ±21.6 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Buccaneers85.7%leaned — went for it · +40.6 vs their 45.1%, and they swing ±26.4 week to week (+1.54× that swing) · 7 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Saints34.3%right on their number · +1.7 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers20.8%leaned — sat back · −16.8 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−1.83× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 31%
Tendencies room →Saints5.7%leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−1.68× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Buccaneers16.7%right on their number · +3.4 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 24 dropbacks
NO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.6%, 22.2 points below their season mean of 58.8% and 1.9 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
13/20, 144 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
1.8 expected points added · -2.3% completion over expected
Passing · TB
14/30, 122 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-9.8 expected points added · -16.5% completion over expected
Receiving · TB
5/8 for 55 yds, 0 TD
29% of team targets · -0.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Tyler Shough banked 10.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 21.3 | +10.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 13/20, 144 yd, 1 INT · 7 car, 55 yd, 2 TD |
| Bucky IrvingRB · Committee Back | 16.1 | +4.4 | 49% | 54% | 11% | 0% | 15 car, 55 yd · 2/3, 26 yd, 1 TD |
| Devin NealRB · Committee Back | 15.4 | +3.6 | 71% | 79% | 5% | 0% | 19 car, 70 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 14 yd |
| Baker MayfieldQB · Starter QB | 11.1 | −4.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/30, 122 yd, 1 TD, 1 INT · 6 car, 42 yd |
| Chris Godwin Jr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 10.5 | −0.3 | 69% | 89% | 29% | 13% | 5/8, 55 yd |
| Sean TuckerRB | 8.9 | +1.7 | 16% | 9% | 0% | — | 7 car, 29 yd, 1 TD |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Featured Receiver | 7.8 | +2.3 | 53% | 67% | 20% | 13% | 4/4, 38 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.0 | −0.1 | 93% | 92% | 25% | 32% | 3/5, 40 yd |
| Rachaad WhiteRB | 6.5 | −2.3 | 49% | 54% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 53 yd · 1/2, 2 yd |
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 6.0 | −2.5 | 93% | 100% | 25% | 61% | 3/5, 30 yd |
| Cade OttonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | −1.7 | 81% | 89% | 14% | 13% | 3/4, 19 yd |
| Emeka EgbukaWR · Alpha Receiver | 3.5 | −11.1 | 88% | 89% | 32% | 69% | 2/9, 15 yd |
| Foster MoreauTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | +1.0 | 45% | 29% | 5% | 4% | 1/1, 16 yd |
| Evan HullRB | 2.0 | +0.2 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Sterling ShepardWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.5 | +0.2 | 57% | 60% | 4% | 2% | 1/1, 5 yd |
| Audric EstiméRB | 1.1 | −0.4 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 45% | 54% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.2 | 22% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Payne DurhamTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 31% | 11% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Ryan MillerWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Kameron JohnsonWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Taysom HillQB | -0.1 | −3.7 | 41% | — | 10% | 2% | 2 car, -1 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(8:34) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough scrambles left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:34 · Saints · 1st & 10 at TB 13 · gained 13 · +2.02 EP · +18.1% win probability
160 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 67 yards from the TB 33 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Buccaneers0Saints7Buccaneers0Saints7Buccaneers6Saints7Buccaneers7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
Saints7Buccaneers10How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Saints13Buccaneers10Saints14Buccaneers10Saints14Buccaneers16Saints14Buccaneers17Saints17Buccaneers17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Saints23Buccaneers17Saints24Buccaneers17How the play was built
A run-pass option, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Saints24Buccaneers20How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Buccaneers, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 13/20 | 144 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +1.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Neal | 19 | 70 | 3.7 | 1 | −4.2 |
| Tyler Shough | 7 | 55 | 7.9 | 2 | +3.1 |
| Audric Estimé |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devaughn Vele | 3 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 25% | +3.1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 | 20% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 14/30 | 122 | 1 | 1 | 0 | −9.8 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_14_NO_TB
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Buccaneers closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 44 — over by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 3 |
| 11 |
| 3.7 |
| 0 |
| −0.4 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 | −1.3 |
| +2.9 |
| Chris Olave | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 25% | −1.4 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 5% | +1.8 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 5% | +2.0 |
| Evan Hull | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 5% | +0.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.5 |
| Taysom Hill | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10% | −1.0 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Carl Granderson | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nathan Shepherd | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Rumph II | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Davon Godchaux | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Danny Stutsman | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Sanker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bucky Irving | 15 | 55 | 3.7 | 0 | −6.8 |
| Rachaad White | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 | +2.9 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Sean Tucker | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 1 | −1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 | 29% | −0.6 |
| Bucky Irving | 2 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 11% | +1.7 |
| Cade Otton | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 14% | −1.1 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 2 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 32% | −2.8 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | +0.0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −1.0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −5.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Izien | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Antoine Winfield Jr. | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lavonte David | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vita Vea | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Parrish | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamel Dean | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tykee Smith | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| SirVocea Dennis | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Braswell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
