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Philadelphia Eagles 19 at Los Angeles Chargers 22. Final.
Eagles -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers 22, Eagles 19 — on the last possessions.
It turned at OT 2:35, 1st and 10, on Tony Jefferson — 83.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · OT 2:35 · 1st and 10
Tony Jefferson
Chargers
(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
U 41.5 ✓
Dome
Eagles closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 22–19 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: OT 2:35, Chargers +83.2% win probability on one snap.
83.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
DeVonta SmithEaglesOT 4:57(4:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to LAC 47 for 28 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
33.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetEaglesOT 3:23(3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-98-O.Oweh, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
33.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Eagles at 4 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Eagles at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 35% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Eagles184 of 196 plays carry both curves
(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
Swing +83.2 for ChargersExpected points +4.57 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 195
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
Overtime · 2:35PHI +83% win prob(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
Overtime · 3:23LAC +34% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) PENALTY on LAC-98-O.Oweh, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 41 - No Play.
Overtime · 4:57LAC +33% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 6-D.Smith to LAC 47 for 28 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Overtime · 6:29PHI +26% win prob(6:29) 11-C.Dicker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.
Overtime · 3:28PHI +25% win prob(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 11-A.Brown (26-D.Jackson).
4th · 15:00LAC +25% win prob(15:00) 26-S.Barkley left end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cameron Dicker's 54-yard field goal with 6:29 left in overtime put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th7:29Cameron Dicker·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+316–16
4th2:20Jake Elliott·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap C.Adomitis+319–16
4th0:12Cameron Dicker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+319–19
Overtime6:29Cameron Dicker·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+319–22
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryChargers
Eagles6–3Chargers
366Total yards275
5.6Yards per play3.9
35%Success rate31%
31%Third-down rate37%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays6
17First downs14
1Sacks taken7
4Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Eagles: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.27Chargers: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.37Eagles: −0.37 expected points added per play
−0.32Chargers: −0.32 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Eagles: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.21Chargers: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 65 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Chargers’s 71 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 3, Chargers 3.
NoteEagles outgained Chargers 366-275 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 6 — the lowest of their 5 charted games through week 14.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.3 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.81× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Chargers14.0%
right on their number · −1.2 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
NoteLAC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.3 pts, 12.1 points below their season mean of 0.8 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
68Jordan MailataT · Every snap100%71 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Every snap100%71 snaps
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%71 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Every snap100%71 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Full-time97%69 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Full-time97%69 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Full-time93%66 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Full-time83%59 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Full-time82%58 snaps
2Jahan DotsonWR · Rotational49%35 snaps
80Darius CooperWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Situational21%15 snaps
64Brett TothG · Situational17%12 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational10%7 snaps
37Tank BigsbyRB · Situational10%7 snaps
36Cameron LatuTE · Situational7%5 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Situational3%2 snaps
33Cooper DeJeanCB · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Mac McWilliamsCBJalen CarterDTJoshua UcheOLBSam HowellQBAJ DillonRBLane JohnsonT
7 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 6 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
J.Hurts pass−83% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right intended for 2-J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by 23-T.Jefferson (20-C.Hart) at LAC 1. 23-T.Jefferson to LAC 4 for 3 yards.
OT 2:35 · Eagles · 1st & 10 at LAC 17 · gained nothing · -4.57 EP · −83.2% win probability
182 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 28 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 190. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 28 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 80 yards from the LAC 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.2653%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.3069%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2336%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8-0.130%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Eagles0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Eagles 49
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown as a checkdown.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Eagles0Chargers6
Eagles0Chargers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Eagles 4
Eagles3Chargers7
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Chargers 23
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 34 to the Chargers 41
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 37
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Eagles 26 to the Chargers 21
Eagles3Chargers10
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Eagles 25
Intercepted3 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressured
Fumble lost1 play
Eagles6Chargers10
Field goal15 plays, from the Eagles 42 to the Chargers 2
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 37
No good2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Eagles6Chargers13
Field goal18 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Eagles 9
Eagles9Chargers13
Field goal6 plays, from the Eagles 36 to the Chargers 36
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 30
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 44
4th quarter55 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles15Chargers13
Eagles16Chargers13
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 49
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Eagles 46
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles16Chargers16
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 13
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Eagles19Chargers16
Field goal11 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Chargers 25
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Eagles19Chargers19
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Eagles 29
The period ended3 plays
Overtime21 plays
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, a man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne fullback, one quarterback, one back, one tight end and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles19Chargers22
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Eagles 36
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
How the play was built
Play action, no huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Chargers 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -1.5
Closing total
41.5
Eagles moneyline
-120
Chargers moneyline
+100
Eagles closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 41 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Eagles 10 days · Chargers 8 days
Coaches
Nick Sirianni vs Jim Harbaugh
4th · 11:12
PHI +24% win prob
(11:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 20-C.Hart at LAC 38. 20-C.Hart ran ob at PHI 35 for 27 yards (88-D.Goedert).
2nd · 8:31PHI +20% win prob(8:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle intended for 11-A.Brown INTERCEPTED by 91-D.Hand at LAC 17. 91-D.Hand to LAC 24 for 7 yards (28-W.Shipley). FUMBLES (28-W.Shipley), RECOVERED by PHI-1-J.Hurts at LAC 32. 1-J.Hurts to LAC 33 for -1 yards (99-J.Caldwell). FUMBLES (99-J.Caldwell), touched at LAC 33, RECOVERED by LAC-43-T.Dye at LAC 43.
