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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium
27
22
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 3:36, BAL +26% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (41-P.Wilson).
How the points landed
(11:02) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 3(7:19) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 3(10:41) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: PIT 10 — BAL 3(6:10) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 3(:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-21-C.Clark, Defensive Holding, declined.
Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 9(11:01) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.
Score after this play: PIT 20 — BAL 9(7:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 20 — BAL 16(3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 16(13:46) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 19(7:15) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 22Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Steelers | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 50 | 75 |
| Total yards | 319 | 420 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 6.4 (edge) | 5.6 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.27 (edge) | 0.01 |
| Success rate | 42% | 44% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 70% | 53% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.34 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.10 (edge) | 0.05 |
| Third downs | 6/14 (edge) | 7/18 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 11 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 0 (edge) | 2 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Ravens outgained Steelers 420–319 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · PIT
23/34, 284 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
10.6 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
19/35, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-5.1 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | BAL 27 | 10 | 55 | 4:02 | Field goal +3 | |
| 2 | PIT | PIT 35 | 10 | 65 | 3:45 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 3 | BAL | BAL 26 | 5 | -3 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 4 | PIT | PIT 32 | 4 | 9 | 1:46 | Punt | |
| 5 | BAL | BAL 11 | 7 | 21 | 2:42 | Punt | |
| 6 | PIT | PIT 20 | 12 | 68 | 4:46 | Field goal +3 | |
| 7 | BAL | BAL 26 | 4 | 6 | 1:18 | Interception | |
| 8 | PIT | BAL 36 | 7 | 29 | 3:16 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 9 | BAL | BAL 40 | 15 | 50 | 5:49 | Touchdown +6 | |
| 10 | PIT | PIT 26 | 2 | 0 | 0:16 | End of half | |
| 11 | PIT | PIT 40 | 9 | 50 | 4:03 | Field goal +3 | |
| 12 | BAL | BAL 29 | 8 | 71 | 3:22 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 13 | PIT | PIT 20 | 8 | 90 | 4:05 | Touchdown +7 | |
| 14 | BAL | BAL 36 | 11 | 54 | 4:47 | Field goal +3 | |
| 15 | PIT | PIT 23 | 5 | 10 | 2:24 | Punt | |
| 16 | BAL | BAL 32 | 9 | 50 | 4:09 | Field goal +3 | |
| 17 | PIT | PIT 41 | 5 | -5 | 1:29 | Punt | |
| 18 | BAL | BAL 22 | 12 | 70 | 3:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | PIT | PIT 8 | 4 | 3 | 0:26 | Punt | |
| 20 | BAL | BAL 26 | 9 | 46 | 1:56 | End of game |
10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/34 | 284 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10.6 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 | 2.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 0 | -2.6 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.7 |
| Connor Heyward | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 2.5 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 12 | 148 | 0 | 36% | 6.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 | 9% | 4.9 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 6% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Holcomb | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Queen | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alex Highsmith | 7 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Payton Wilson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 19/35 | 219 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 25 | 94 | 3.8 | 0 |
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 49 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 1.4 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 21% | -0.2 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 3% | 1.4 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0.8 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 9% | -1.4 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | 0.0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 1 | -9 | 0 | 3% | -1.5 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| T.J. Watt | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pierre | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Cameron Heyward | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Keeanu Benton | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Joey Porter Jr. | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malik Harrison | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| -2.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 6 | 76 | 12.7 | 0 | 2.8 |
| Lamar Jackson | 7 | 43 | 6.1 | 1 | 5.8 |
| Zay Flowers | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.4 |
| Rasheen Ali | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 8 | 11 | 124 | 0 | 33% | 7.2 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 | 18% | 2.5 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 9% | -0.1 |
| Charlie Kolar | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | -4.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15% | -4.3 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | -0.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -1.5 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 3 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alohi Gilman | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Teddye Buchanan | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaki Starks | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marlon Humphrey | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Kyle Hamilton | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| T.J. Tampa | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Van Noy | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
