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2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · M&T Bank Stadium

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

27

Baltimore Ravens

22

BAL -5.5 upsetO 43.5 ✓

Pittsburgh Steelers 27–22. Biggest swing: Q4 3:36, BAL +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3BAL ↑PIT ↓
Q4 · 3:36PIT 27 — BAL 22BAL ball · 3rd & 8PIT 71%

(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (41-P.Wilson).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 3:36BAL +26% win prob(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to PIT 13 for 33 yards (41-P.Wilson).
  2. Q4 · 0:09PIT +22% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at PIT 38 for -8 yards (56-A.Highsmith).
  3. Q4 · 2:28PIT +21% win prob(2:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short middle to 89-M.Andrews.
  4. Q3 · 3:38BAL +14% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 11:02BAL Field goal

    (11:02) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: PIT 0 — BAL 3
  2. Q1 · 7:19PIT Touchdown

    (7:19) 8-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 7 — BAL 3
  3. Q2 · 10:41PIT Field goal

    (10:41) 9-C.Boswell 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 10 — BAL 3
  4. Q2 · 6:10PIT Touchdown

    (6:10) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 14-K.Gainwell left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 3
  5. Q2 · 0:21BAL Touchdown

    (:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-21-C.Clark, Defensive Holding, declined.

    Score after this play: PIT 17 — BAL 9
  6. Q3 · 11:01PIT Field goal

    (11:01) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

    Score after this play: PIT 20 — BAL 9
  7. Q3 · 7:40BAL Touchdown

    (7:40) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 80-I.Likely for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 20 — BAL 16
  8. Q3 · 3:38PIT Touchdown

    (3:38) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 30-J.Warren for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 16
  9. Q4 · 13:46BAL Field goal

    (13:46) 33-T.Loop 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 19
  10. Q4 · 7:15BAL Field goal

    (7:15) 33-T.Loop 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

    Score after this play: PIT 27 — BAL 22

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricSteelersRavens
Offensive plays5075
Total yards319420 (edge)
Yards per play6.4 (edge)5.6
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)0.01
Success rate42%44% (edge)
Dropback rate70%53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.34 (edge)-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.10 (edge)0.05
Third downs6/14 (edge)7/18
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1119 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers0 (edge)1

Ravens outgained Steelers 420–319 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Aaron RodgersQB

23/34, 284 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · +4.3% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

19/35, 219 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-5.1 expected points added · -5.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

25 att, 94 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Keaton MitchellRB

6 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

2.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · PIT

DK MetcalfWR

7/12 for 148 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 6.8 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

8/11 for 124 yds, 0 TD

33% of team targets · 7.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1BALBAL 2710554:02Field goal +3
2PITPIT 3510653:45Touchdown +7
3BALBAL 265-32:20Punt
4PITPIT 32491:46Punt
5BALBAL 117212:42Punt
6PITPIT 2012684:46Field goal +3
7BALBAL 26461:18Interception
8PITBAL 367293:16Touchdown +7
9BALBAL 4015505:49Touchdown +6
10PITPIT 26200:16End of half
11PITPIT 409504:03Field goal +3
12BALBAL 298713:22Touchdown +7
13PITPIT 208904:05Touchdown +7
14BALBAL 3611544:47Field goal +3
15PITPIT 235102:24Punt
16BALBAL 329504:09Field goal +3
17PITPIT 415-51:29Punt
18BALBAL 2212703:19Turnover on downs
19PITPIT 8430:26Punt
20BALBAL 269461:56End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Aaron Rodgers23/3428410010.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Kenneth Gainwell4153.812.4
Jaylen Warren8131.60-2.6
Kaleb Johnson242.00-0.7
Connor Heyward122.002.5
Aaron Rodgers200.011.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
DK Metcalf712148036%6.8
Jaylen Warren334919%4.9
Calvin Austin III123106%1.4
Kenneth Gainwell6727021%-0.2
Ben Skowronek111303%1.4
Darnell Washington111203%0.8
Pat Freiermuth23909%-1.4
Adam Thielen11403%0.0
Marquez Valdes-Scantling01003%-0.7
Jonnu Smith01003%-0.5
Aaron Rodgers11-903%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Cole Holcomb440.000
Patrick Queen520.000
Alex Highsmith701.000
T.J. Watt420.000
Payton Wilson420.000
James Pierre320.012
Cameron Heyward230.000
Joey Porter Jr.310.001
Keeanu Benton130.001
Yahya Black210.000

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Lamar Jackson19/35219112-5.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Derrick Henry25943.80-2.0
Keaton Mitchell67612.702.8
Lamar Jackson7436.115.8
Zay Flowers122.00-0.4
Rasheen Ali122.00-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Zay Flowers811124033%7.2
Isaiah Likely4625118%2.5
Rashod Bateman232309%-0.1
Charlie Kolar111903%0.9
Rasheen Ali231109%-4.3
Mark Andrews159015%-4.3
Derrick Henry12806%-0.2
Patrick Ricard01003%-0.7
DeAndre Hopkins01003%-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Roquan Smith360.000
Alohi Gilman250.000
Nate Wiggins420.000
Marlon Humphrey310.003
Teddye Buchanan130.000
Malaki Starks400.001
Mike Green120.000
Kyle Hamilton120.000
Chidobe Awuzie110.000
T.J. Tampa200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
BAL -5.5
Closing total
43.5
PIT moneyline
+220
BAL moneyline
-270

Ravens closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 49 — over by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
M&T Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
44°F, wind 6 mph
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
PIT 7 days · BAL 10 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs John Harbaugh

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.