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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:10 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 14
It turned at Q3 15:00 — 15.9 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Seattle Seahawks 37–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Seahawks +15.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00
Unnamed on the sheet
Seahawks
45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Falcons at 1 of 13 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.32 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.50 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rashid Shaheed's 100-yard return touchdown with 15:00 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Rashid Shaheed100-yd return TD100-yard return touchdownon the kickLead never changed again+713–610 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Seahawkscategory by categoryFalcons
Seahawks ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Falcons’s 62 at 50%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 6, Falcons 4.
Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected, +3.0 pts, is past their previous high of −1.4 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points. · +1.5σ from their own normal
SEA's play-action rate turned over: 13.3% in week 13 against 32.4% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points. · +0.8σ from their own normal
ATL's play-action rate turned over: 40.0% in week 13 against 12.9% here — they faked the run then and dropped back clean now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.8 points. · −0.7σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 11 pts
Over Expected room →Seahawks3.0 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +9.6 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.52× that swing) · 58 snaps
Falcons-13.8 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.5 vs their -6.3 pts, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 62 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 81%
Tendencies room →Seahawks53.3%inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 47.8%, and they swing ±10.0 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 45 early downs
Falcons40.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.1 vs their 50.5%, and they swing ±11.9 week to week (−0.85× that swing) · 47 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 49%
Tendencies room →Seahawks32.4%inside their normal wobble · +6.8 vs their 25.5%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Falcons12.9%inside their normal wobble · −8.1 vs their 21.0%, and they swing ±10.8 week to week (−0.75× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -47% to 118%
Fourth Down room →Seahawks—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 29.4%.
Falcons50.0%right on their number · +14.2 vs their 35.8%, and they swing ±32.3 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 2% to 70%
Tendencies room →Seahawks35.5%leaned — sent pressure · +10.4 vs their 25.1%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+1.26× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons38.2%right on their number · +0.5 vs their 37.7%, and they swing ±12.5 week to week (+0.04× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 32%
Tendencies room →Seahawks22.6%leaned — got home · +6.5 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+1.07× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Falcons8.8%inside their normal wobble · −5.7 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
SEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.0 pts, 9.6 points above their season mean of -6.7 pts and 1.5 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Seattle Seahawks
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Atlanta Falcons
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · SEA
20/30, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
10.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected
Passing · ATL
15/30, 162 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-15.4 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected
Receiving · SEA
7/10 for 92 yds, 2 TD
33% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rashid Shaheed banked 8.4 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR · Alpha Receiver | 28.1 | +5.7 | 72% | 88% | 33% | 42% | 1 car, -1 yd · 7/10, 92 yd, 2 TD |
| Sam DarnoldQB · Starter QB | 22.3 | −1.0 | 87% | — | 0% | — | 20/30, 249 yd, 3 TD, 1 INT · 3 car, 23 yd |
| Rashid ShaheedWR · Rotational Receiver | 16.7 | +8.4 | 51% | 68% | 17% | 25% | 4/5, 67 yd |
| Kyle PittsTE · Alpha Receiver | 15.0 | −0.4 | 92% | 100% | 36% | 51% | 6/10, 90 yd |
| Cooper KuppWR · Rotational Receiver | 11.5 | +3.8 | 69% | 85% | 10% | 12% | 2/3, 35 yd, 1 TD |
| Bijan RobinsonRB · Bell Cow Back | 9.4 | −3.1 | 67% | 68% | 7% | 0% | 20 car, 86 yd · 2/2, 8 yd |
| Tyler AllgeierRB · Committee Back | 8.7 | −3.2 | 39% | 32% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 34 yd · 2/2, 33 yd |
| Zach CharbonnetRB · Receiving Back | 8.6 | −1.7 | 41% | 50% | 10% | 3% | 7 car, 46 yd · 2/3, 20 yd |
| AJ BarnerTE · Rotational Receiver | 5.7 | −4.0 | 67% | 79% | 13% | 5% | 3/4, 27 yd |
| Dylan DrummondWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.1 | −4.8 | 61% | 71% | 18% | 13% | 3/5, 21 yd |
| Kenneth Walker IIIRB · Committee Back | 3.8 | −8.7 | 52% | 53% | 10% | 4% | 10 car, 29 yd · 1/3, -1 yd |
| Velus Jones Jr.RB | 3.2 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Kirk CousinsQB · Starter QB | 2.5 | −10.7 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/30, 162 yd, 2 INT |
| Cody WhiteWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.2 | 28% | 15% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Darnell MooneyWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.6 | −6.2 | 77% | 87% | 14% | 20% | 1/4, 6 yd |
| Deven ThompkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Feleipe FranksTE | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Jamal AgnewWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| David SillsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.5 | 94% | 97% | 14% | 20% | 0/4, 0 yd |
| Robbie OuztsRB | 0.0 | — | 30% | 15% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Drew LockQB | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13% | — | 0% | — | 1 car, 0 yd |
| Elijah ArroyoTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −2.3 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 15:00 · Seahawks · Kickoff at ATL 35 · gained nothing · +6.07 EP · +23.8% win probability
155 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 155 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 88 yards from the SEA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Seahawks0
Falcons3Seahawks3Falcons3Seahawks3Falcons6Seahawks6Falcons6Seahawks12Falcons6Seahawks13Falcons6How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Seahawks19Falcons6Seahawks20Falcons6Seahawks23Falcons6Seahawks23Falcons9Seahawks29Falcons9Seahawks30Falcons9Seahawks36Falcons9Seahawks37Falcons9Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Seahawks at Falcons, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | 20/30 | 249 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +10.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 | +0.5 |
| Velus Jones Jr. | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Kenneth Walker III |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 7 | 10 | 92 | 2 | 33% | +7.6 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernest Jones | 5 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Witherspoon | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Nick Emmanwori |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 15/30 | 162 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −15.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_14_SEA_ATL
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Seahawks closed -7 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 46 — over by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 29 |
| 2.9 |
| 0 |
| −2.6 |
| Sam Darnold | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 0 | +1.2 |
| Drew Lock | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| 17% |
| +5.6 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 | 10% | +3.1 |
| AJ Barner | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 13% | +1.9 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 10% | +0.5 |
| Cody White | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 3% | +0.8 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −4.5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 10% | −1.9 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 1.0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Riq Woolen | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Drake Thomas | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ty Okada | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Jobe | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Boye Mafe | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyrice Knight | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 0 | −6.1 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 10 | 90 | 0 | 36% | −0.0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 2 | 2 | 33 | 0 | 7% | +1.6 |
| Dylan Drummond | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 | 18% | −3.1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +0.7 |
| Darnell Mooney | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 14% | −4.0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4% | −0.1 |
| David Sills | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −7.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Terrell | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Mike Hughes | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kaden Elliss | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| LaCale London | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Divine Deablo | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Alford | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Watts | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentavius Street | 2 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| James Pearce Jr. | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arnold Ebiketie | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
