2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Seattle SeahawksWinner

Atlanta Falcons

SEA -7 ✓O 44.5 ✓DomeSeahawks closed -7 and covered, winning by 28.

Seattle Seahawks 37–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, ATL +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 15:00SEA 12 — ATL 6SEA ballSEA 69%

45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 15:00ATL +16% win prob45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 11:26SEA +9% win prob(11:26) 7-B.Robinson up the middle to SEA 18 for no gain (0-D.Lawrence; 13-E.Jones). FUMBLES (0-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by SEA-21-D.Witherspoon at SEA 12. 21-D.Witherspoon to SEA 12 for no gain (87-D.Sills).
Q1 · 10:10SEA +8% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at SEA 1 for -8 yards (27-J.Pearce).
Q2 · 2:00ATL +7% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to SEA 30 for 30 yards (3-N.Emmanwori) [58-D.Hall].

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 7:17ATL Field goal
(7:17) 45-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: SEA 0 — ATL 3
Q1 · 0:52SEA Field goal
(:52) 5-J.Myers 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — ATL 3
Q2 · 1:06ATL Field goal
(1:06) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ** Injury Update: SEA-95-B.Pili has returned to the game.
Score after this play: SEA 3 — ATL 6
Q2 · 0:04SEA Field goal
(:04) 5-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 6 — ATL 6
Q3 · 15:00SEA Touchdown
45-Z.Gonzalez kicks 65 yards from ATL 35 to SEA 0. 22-R.Shaheed for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 13 — ATL 6
Q3 · 6:23SEA Touchdown
(6:23) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL-55-K.Elliss was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 20 — ATL 6
Q3 · 2:43SEA Field goal
(2:43) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Score after this play: SEA 23 — ATL 6
Q4 · 15:00ATL Field goal
(15:00) 45-Z.Gonzalez 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Score after this play: SEA 23 — ATL 9
Q4 · 12:18SEA Touchdown
(12:18) (No Huddle) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 30 — ATL 9
Q4 · 8:34SEA Touchdown
(8:34) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [20-D.Alford]. (kick good)
Score after this play: SEA 37 — ATL 9

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Seahawks	Falcons
Offensive plays	58	62
Total yards	365 (edge)	274
Yards per play	6.3 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	-0.36
Success rate	48% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	59%	50%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.32 (edge)	-0.50
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09 (edge)	-0.22
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	1/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.36.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

20/30, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

10.0 expected points added · -0.3% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

15/30, 162 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-15.4 expected points added · -12.8% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

20 att, 86 yds, 0 TD

-6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

7 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

7/10 for 92 yds, 2 TD

33% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

6/10 for 90 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 23	9	27	3:26	Punt
2	SEA	SEA 11	4	-10	2:16	Punt
3	ATL	SEA 39	5	27	2:04	Field goal +3
4	SEA	SEA 26	13	60	6:25	Field goal +3
5	ATL	ATL 29	9	16	4:26	Punt
6	SEA	SEA 10	3	14	1:54	Interception
7	ATL	SEA 30	5	8	1:57	Missed field goal
8	SEA	SEA 34	4	2	1:43	Punt
9	ATL	ATL 12	11	73	4:48	Field goal +3
10	SEA	SEA 25	8	45	1:01	Field goal +3
11	SEA	—	2	0	0:12	Defensive touchdown +7
12	ATL	ATL 35	7	47	3:30	Fumble
13	SEA	SEA 12	9	88	5:02	Touchdown +7
14	ATL	ATL 35	4	7	1:22	Interception
15	SEA	ATL 47	6	28	2:15	Field goal +3
16	ATL	ATL 32	9	59	2:42	Field goal +3
17	SEA	SEA 40	8	60	2:44	Touchdown +7
18	ATL	ATL 35	4	3	0:44	Interception
19	SEA	ATL 35	7	35	3:02	Touchdown +7
20	ATL	SEA 48	11	5	3:20	Turnover on downs
21	SEA	SEA 4	8	43	4:46	Punt
22	ATL	ATL 4	1	2	0:21	End of game

10 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 88 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	20/30	249	3	1	2	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zach Charbonnet	7	46	6.6	0.5
Velus Jones Jr.	4	32	8.0	1.2
Kenneth Walker III	10	29	2.9	-2.6
Sam Darnold	3	23	7.7	1.2
Drew Lock	1	0	0.0	-0.5
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	1	-1	-1.0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	7	10	92	2	33%	7.6
Rashid Shaheed	4	5	67	0	17%	5.6
Cooper Kupp	2	3	35	1	10%	3.1
AJ Barner	3	4	27	0	13%	1.9
Zach Charbonnet	2	3	20	0	10%	0.5
Cody White	1	1	9	0	3%	0.8
Elijah Arroyo	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.5
Kenneth Walker III	1	3	-1	0	10%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ernest Jones	5	6	0.0	0	0
Devon Witherspoon	5	2	0.0	1	2
Nick Emmanwori	5	1	1.0	1	1
Riq Woolen	4	1	0.0	0	2
Drake Thomas	1	4	0.0	0	0
Ty Okada	2	1	0.0	0	1
Josh Jobe	2	1	0.0	0	1
Leonard Williams	2	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrice Knight	2	1	0.0	0	0
Boye Mafe	1	2	0.0	0	1

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	15/30	162	0	2	1	-15.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Bijan Robinson	20	86	4.3	0	-6.1
Tyler Allgeier	11	34	3.1	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Kyle Pitts	6	10	90	36%	-0.0
Tyler Allgeier	2	2	33	7%	1.6
Dylan Drummond	3	5	21	18%	-3.1
Bijan Robinson	2	2	8	7%	0.7
Darnell Mooney	1	4	6	14%	-4.0
Deven Thompkins	1	1	4	4%	-0.1
David Sills	0	4	0	14%	-7.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
A.J. Terrell	7	1	0.0	0	1
LaCale London	2	4	0.0	0	0
Mike Hughes	6	0	0.0	1	1
Kaden Elliss	2	4	0.0	0	0
Dee Alford	5	0	0.0	0	0
Divine Deablo	3	2	0.0	0	0
Xavier Watts	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kentavius Street	2	1	1.0	0	0
James Pearce Jr.	2	0	1.0	0	0
Arnold Ebiketie	0	2	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SEA -7
Closing total: 44.5
SEA moneyline: -355
ATL moneyline: +280

Seahawks closed -7 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 46 — over by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: SEA 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Mike Macdonald vs Raheem Morris