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Tennessee Titans 31 at Cleveland Browns 29. Final.
Browns -4.5 upsetO 33.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 14
Tennessee Titans 31, Browns 29 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 2:58, 2nd and 10, on Jerry Jeudy — 20.9 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:58 · 2nd and 10
Jerry Jeudy
Browns
(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Browns closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 31–29 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 2:58, Browns +20.9% win probability on one snap.
20.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tony PollardTitansQ3 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.0pts
Dylan SampsonTitansQ4 11:07(11:07) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (26-M.Harris). FUMBLES (26-M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-33-C.Gray at CLE 27. 33-C.Gray to CLE 8 for 19 yards (19-C.Tillman).
19.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.08 expected points per carry, against Browns at -0.34 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Titans at 3 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Browns owned this one and still lost it — +0.05 expected points per dropback, against Titans at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Titans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Browns at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Titans179 of 187 plays carry both curves
(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.9 for BrownsExpected points +5.88 for BrownsThe model had Titans 6 points higher than the market did.play 69
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:58CLE +21% win prob(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:07TEN +20% win prob(11:07) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass short right to 22-D.Sampson to CLE 25 for 5 yards (26-M.Harris). FUMBLES (26-M.Harris), RECOVERED by TEN-33-C.Gray at CLE 27. 33-C.Gray to CLE 8 for 19 yards (19-C.Tillman).
3rd · 0:58CLE +17% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left tackle for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:54TEN +16% win prob(3:54) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass short left intended for 5-E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Bush [9-G.Delpit] at CLE 17. 30-D.Bush pushed ob at TEN 39 for 44 yards (75-D.Moore).
1st · 1:42CLE +15% win prob(1:42) 72-O.Udoh reported in as eligible. 20-T.Pollard right end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:57TEN +14% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle intended for 84-G.Larvadain INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Woods [93-T.Sweat] at TEN 27. 25-X.Woods to CLE 38 for 35 yards (22-D.Sampson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tony Pollard's 32-yard rushing touchdown with 0:58 left in the 3rd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Titans: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.06Browns: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Titans: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.05Browns: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Titans: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.34Browns: −0.34 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 64 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Browns’s 66 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Browns 5.
NoteBrowns outgained Titans 412-292 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −12.8 pts in week 13 against +3.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CLE's early-down pass rate turned over: 44.4% in week 13 against 70.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points.
TEN's play-action rate turned over: 4.8% in week 13 against 24.1% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 10 pts
leaned — got home · +9.1 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Browns17.2%
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 36.2%, 23.1 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 2.2 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Sanders pass+21% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:58) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders pass deep middle to 3-J.Jeudy for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 2:58 · Browns · 2nd & 10 at CLE 40 · gained 60 · +5.88 EP · +21.3% win probability
177 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 177 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 182. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 80 yards from the CLE 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
40%
Yards
704
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1078%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3259%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.0155%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.1247%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11-0.179%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Titans6Browns0
Titans7Browns0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Titans 47 to the Browns 14
Punt6 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 24
Titans7Browns3
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Titans 20
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, five linebackers and three backsIn the boxEight defenders
Titans13Browns3
Titans14Browns3
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Browns 40 to the Titans 2
2nd quarter43 plays
Titans14Browns9
Titans14Browns10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Titans 3 to the Titans 1
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 35 to midfield
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Titans 44
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Titans 33
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Titans14Browns16
Titans14Browns17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 40
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Browns 47
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 22 to the Browns 48
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 35
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Titans 31
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 23 to the Browns 29
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 47
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.2 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Titans 45
How the play was built
A run-pass option, a man in motion.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Titans20Browns17
Titans21Browns17
Touchdown3 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Browns 32
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter62 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 24 to the Browns 29
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Titans 48
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost1 play
Titans27Browns17
Titans28Browns17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 5
Punt9 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Browns 49
Titans31Browns17
Field goal4 plays, from the Browns 29 to the Browns 21
Titans31Browns23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Titans 7
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 37
Titans31Browns29
How the play was built
A trick play, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runSwingCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Titans 7
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Browns 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -4.5
Closing total
33.5
Titans moneyline
+170
Browns moneyline
-205
Browns closed -4.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 33.5; the game landed 60 — over by 26.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 33°F at kickoff; still at 5 mph out of the south-west; 0.04 in of precipitation; moderate snow.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Titans 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Brian Callahan vs Kevin Stefanski
4th · 1:03TEN +14% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 10-Q.Judkins pass to 84-G.Larvadain is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
1st · 1:29CLE +12% win prob(1:29) 12-S.Sanders pass short middle to 10-Q.Judkins to TEN 2 for 58 yards (23-K.Winston) [49-A.Key]. Tennessee challenged the runner was inbounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
