2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Washington Commanders

Minnesota VikingsWinner

WAS -1.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓DomeCommanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Minnesota Vikings 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:46, WAS +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:46WAS 0 — MIN 7WAS ball · 4th & 2WAS 50%

(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:46WAS +11% win prob(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
Q1 · 5:15MIN +10% win prob(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to MIN 19 for 15 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q3 · 8:24WAS +9% win prob(8:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel at MIN 30. 43-A.Van Ginkel to WAS 30 for 40 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q2 · 9:59MIN +8% win prob(9:59) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 3-J.Addison to WAS 28 for 21 yards (20-Q.Martin).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 11:07MIN Touchdown
(11:07) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 84-J.Oliver for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIN 7
Q2 · 5:45MIN Touchdown
(5:45) 27-J.Mason left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIN 14
Q3 · 7:06MIN Field goal
(7:06) 16-W.Reichard 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.
Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIN 17
Q3 · 2:58MIN Touchdown
(2:58) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 84-J.Oliver for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Martin]. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIN 24
Q4 · 11:31MIN Touchdown
(11:31) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 87-T.Hockenson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS-31-J.Jones was injured during the play. (kick good)
Score after this play: WAS 0 — MIN 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Vikings
Offensive plays	49	57
Total yards	206	317 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	5.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.43	0.31 (edge)
Success rate	35%	54% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.70	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07	0.21 (edge)
Third downs	3/10	6/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	0 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.43.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

16/23, 163 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.3 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Jayden DanielsQB

9/20, 78 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-11.3 expected points added · -17.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

14 att, 76 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Jordan MasonRB

11 att, 52 yds, 1 TD

2.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Jordan AddisonWR

4/7 for 62 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

3/6 for 41 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · -4.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 39	9	61	3:57	Touchdown +7
2	WAS	WAS 15	16	93	8:21	Turnover on downs
3	MIN	MIN 2	20	98	12:01	Touchdown +7
4	WAS	WAS 24	5	9	1:23	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 21	7	8	2:33	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 33	7	12	1:28	Punt
7	MIN	MIN 14	1	0	0:17	End of half
8	WAS	WAS 23	13	39	6:44	Interception
9	MIN	WAS 30	4	3	1:15	Field goal +3
10	WAS	WAS 20	5	17	2:04	Interception
11	MIN	WAS 37	5	37	2:04	Touchdown +7
12	WAS	WAS 30	5	-9	1:35	Punt
13	MIN	MIN 34	10	57	4:52	Touchdown +7
14	WAS	WAS 35	7	45	3:33	Fumble
15	MIN	MIN 17	12	53	7:53	End of game

5 of 15 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 98 scrimmage yards over 20 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jayden Daniels	9/20	78	0	1	1	-11.3
Marcus Mariota	2/4	30	0	1	1	-5.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	10	52	5.2	1.5
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	7	32	4.6	-0.4
Jayden Daniels	4	16	4.0	-0.7
Marcus Mariota	2	7	3.5	-4.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	3	6	41	30%	-4.4
Deebo Samuel Sr.	4	6	27	30%	-1.6
Noah Brown	1	2	19	10%	-0.2
Zach Ertz	1	2	11	10%	2.2
Ben Sinnott	1	1	8	5%	0.4
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	2	5%	-0.7
Colson Yankoff	0	1	0	5%	-0.6
Treylon Burks	0	1	0	5%	-5.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Bobby Wagner	6	9	1.0	0
Quan Martin	4	3	0.0	0
Mike Sainristil	3	2	0.0	1
Jacob Martin	1	3	0.0	0
Von Miller	2	2	1.0	0
Jordan Magee	1	2	0.0	0
Frankie Luvu	2	1	0.0	1
Preston Smith	1	2	0.0	0
Noah Igbinoghene	2	1	0.0	1
Antonio Hamilton	3	0	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
J.J. McCarthy	16/23	163	3	0	4	9.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	14	76	5.4	0	2.6
Jordan Mason	11	52	4.7	1	2.1
J.J. McCarthy	6	19	3.2	0	-1.7
Zavier Scott	3	15	5.0	0	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jordan Addison	4	7	62	0	30%	3.2
Jalen Nailor	3	3	30	0	13%	3.9
Josh Oliver	2	2	24	2	9%	2.9
T.J. Hockenson	2	3	12	1	13%	2.8
Justin Jefferson	2	4	11	0	17%	0.2
Tai Felton	1	1	10	0	4%	0.6
Ben Sims	1	1	9	0	4%	1.0
Zavier Scott	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Aaron Jones	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Blake Cashman	3	7	0.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	2	4	1.0	0	0
Jalen Redmond	2	3	1.0	0	0
Josh Metellus	1	3	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	3	1	0.0	1	1
Andrew Van Ginkel	1	3	0.0	1	2
Byron Murphy	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dallas Turner	1	1	0.0	0	0
Fabian Moreau	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jay Ward	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: WAS -1.5
Closing total: 43.5
WAS moneyline: -115
MIN moneyline: -105

Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 31 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: WAS 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Dan Quinn vs Kevin O'Connell