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polling · 1800s tick · as of 10:09 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 7, 2025 · U.S. Bank Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 14
It turned at Q1 2:46, 4th and 2, on Jayden Daniels — 10.5 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Minnesota Vikings 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:46, Vikings +10.5% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:46 · 4th and 2
Jayden Daniels
Vikings
(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.70 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Vikings won this one — +0.31 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.43 expected points per snap.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — no giveaways, against Commanders at 4 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(2:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to 1-D.Samuel.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Josh Oliver's 18-yard touchdown catch with 11:07 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Josh Oliver18-yd TD catch18-yard touchdown catchfrom J.J. McCarthyLead never changed again+70–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Commanderscategory by categoryVikings
Vikings ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.70 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 49 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Vikings’s 57 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, Vikings 4.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs -0.43.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 11 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 14.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 17.2 points. · +1.3σ from their own normal
WAS's blitz rate sent turned over: 12.5% in week 13 against 41.4% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.6 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 8.3% in week 13 against 24.1% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points. · +1.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
Over Expected room →Commanders-6.5 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their -4.4 pts, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 49 snaps
Vikings4.2 ptsleaned — threw more than the situation asked · +5.6 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+1.06× that swing) · 57 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 83%
Tendencies room →Commanders52.8%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±10.9 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 36 early downs
Vikings44.4%inside their normal wobble · −10.2 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.92× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 56%
Tendencies room →Commanders25.0%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 26.8%, and they swing ±11.4 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Vikings24.1%right on their number · −1.8 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.22× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -40% to 100%
Fourth Down room →Commanders75.0%leaned — went for it · +22.7 vs their 52.3%, and they swing ±17.2 week to week (+1.32× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Vikings—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 27.4%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 3% to 77%
Tendencies room →Commanders41.4%leaned — sent pressure · +14.3 vs their 27.0%, and they swing ±8.6 week to week (+1.66× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings34.4%leaned — sat back · −17.4 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (−1.95× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 39%
Tendencies room →Commanders24.1%leaned — got home · +9.9 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.55× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Vikings12.5%inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
MIN's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 34.4%, 17.4 points below their season mean of 51.8% and 1.9 times their own 9.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · MIN
16/23, 163 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.3 expected points added · +0.1% completion over expected
Passing · WAS
9/20, 78 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-11.3 expected points added · -17.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Josh Oliver banked 9.9 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 20.4 | +3.9 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 16/23, 163 yd, 3 TD · 6 car, 19 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 16.4 | +9.9 | 62% | 38% | 9% | 12% | 2/2, 24 yd, 2 TD |
| Jordan MasonRB | 11.2 | +2.5 | 30% | 24% | 0% | — | 11 car, 52 yd, 1 TD |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Alpha Receiver | 10.2 | −4.9 | 67% | 83% | 30% | 51% | 4/7, 62 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Rotational Receiver | 9.2 | +1.8 | 56% | 72% | 13% | 8% | 2/3, 12 yd, 1 TD |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 7.6 | −1.3 | 45% | 45% | 4% | 0% | 14 car, 76 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Terry McLaurinWR · Alpha Receiver | 7.1 | −1.0 | 62% | 72% | 30% | 46% | 3/6, 41 yd |
| Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · Alpha Receiver | 6.7 | −4.5 | 52% | 72% | 30% | 0% | 4/6, 27 yd |
| Jalen NailorWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.0 | +1.3 | 58% | 69% | 13% | 10% | 3/3, 30 yd |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · Committee Back | 5.2 | −0.6 | 42% | 34% | 0% | — | 10 car, 52 yd |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB | 3.2 | −0.3 | 19% | 9% | 0% | — | 7 car, 32 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.1 | −4.3 | 80% | 83% | 17% | 26% | 2/4, 11 yd |
| Zavier ScottRB | 3.0 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Noah BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.9 | −0.3 | 62% | 78% | 10% | 25% | 1/2, 19 yd |
| Jayden DanielsQB · Starter QB | 2.7 | −10.5 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 9/20, 78 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 16 yd |
| Zach ErtzTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −1.3 | 69% | 75% | 10% | 20% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Tai FeltonWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.3 | 17% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Ben SimsTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.5 | 30% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| Ben SinnottTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | +0.5 | 25% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 8 yd |
| Jeremy McNicholsRB | 1.2 | −0.2 | 35% | 50% | 5% | 0% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 3 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Colson YankoffTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.4 | 23% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| John BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 62% | 47% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Treylon BurksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.6 | 37% | 25% | 5% | 12% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Jaylin LaneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Marcus MariotaQB | -2.1 | −5.3 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 2/4, 30 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 1-D.Samuel to MIN 19 for 15 yards (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel).
Q1 5:15 · Commanders · 3rd & 13 at MIN 34 · gained 15 · +2.88 EP · +7.8% win probability
133 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 141 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 133 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 136. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 98 yards from the MIN 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
141 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
141 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Commanders0
Vikings6Commanders0Vikings7Commanders0Vikings13Commanders0Vikings14Commanders0Vikings17Commanders0Vikings23Commanders0Vikings24Commanders0Vikings30Commanders0Vikings31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Commanders at Vikings, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 9/20 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −11.3 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2/4 | 30 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −5.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 | +1.5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 | 30% | −4.4 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Wagner | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quan Martin | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Sainristil |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 16/23 | 163 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +9.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_14_WAS_MIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Commanders closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 31 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 | −0.7 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −4.6 |
| 30% |
| −1.6 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 10% | −0.2 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 10% | +2.2 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 5% | +0.4 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5% | −0.7 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −5.1 |
| Colson Yankoff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5% | −0.6 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| Von Miller | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Martin | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noah Igbinoghene | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jordan Magee | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Goldman | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Preston Smith | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 0 | +2.6 |
| Jordan Mason | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 | +2.1 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 | 30% | +3.2 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +3.9 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2 | 9% | +2.9 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 | 13% | +2.8 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 17% | +0.2 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 4% | +0.6 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +1.0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 2 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Metellus | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Andrew Van Ginkel | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Byron Murphy | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jay Ward | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Fabian Moreau | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
