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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · NRG Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

20

Houston TexansWinner

40

HOU -10.5 ✓O 42.5 ✓Dome

Houston Texans 40–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:21, HOU +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3HOU ↑ARI ↓
Q1 · 14:21ARI 0 — HOU 6HOU ball · 2nd & 8HOU 80%

(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:21HOU +14% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 12:03HOU +3% win prob(12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
  3. Q1 · 15:00HOU +3% win prob38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to HOU 2. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 41 for 39 yards (29-D.Burke).
  4. Q1 · 12:43ARI +3% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to ARI 12 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins; 97-W.Nolen).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 14:21HOU Touchdown

    (14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — HOU 7
  2. Q1 · 12:03HOU Field goal

    (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — HOU 10
  3. Q1 · 6:15HOU Touchdown

    (6:15) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud FUMBLES (Aborted) at ARI 2, recovered by HOU-27-W.Marks at ARI 7. 27-W.Marks for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 0 — HOU 17
  4. Q2 · 13:45ARI Touchdown

    (13:45) 78-J.Fryar reported in as eligible. 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 17
  5. Q2 · 9:05HOU Field goal

    (9:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 20
  6. Q2 · 1:46HOU Field goal

    (1:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 23
  7. Q3 · 4:42HOU Touchdown

    (4:42) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short left to 86-D.Schultz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 7 — HOU 30
  8. Q3 · 0:39ARI Touchdown

    (:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 85-T.McBride for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 14 — HOU 30
  9. Q4 · 13:38HOU Field goal

    (13:38) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

    Score after this play: ARI 14 — HOU 33
  10. Q4 · 11:06ARI Touchdown

    (11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-M.Wilson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — HOU 33
  11. Q4 · 3:14HOU Touchdown

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ARI 20 — HOU 40

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricCardinalsTexans
Offensive plays6460
Total yards307399 (edge)
Yards per play4.86.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.010.25 (edge)
Success rate47%48% (edge)
Dropback rate69%52%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.050.44 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.14 (edge)0.05
Third downs5/126/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)36 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps2121
Sacks taken21 (edge)
Turnovers20 (edge)

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

C.J. StroudQB

22/29, 260 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

15.1 expected points added · +11.9% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Jacoby BrissettQB

27/40, 249 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +1.2% completion over expected

Rushing · HOU

Jawhar JordanRB

15 att, 101 yds, 0 TD

1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Michael CarterRB

14 att, 56 yds, 0 TD

3.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

Trey McBrideTE

12/13 for 134 yds, 2 TD

34% of team targets · 12.0 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Nico CollinsWR

3/4 for 85 yds, 2 TD

15% of team targets · 8.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1HOUHOU 414590:49Touchdown +7
2ARI—100:08Fumble
3HOUARI 225102:03Field goal +3
4ARIARI 225-71:37Punt
5HOUARI 499244:11Turnover on downs +7
6ARIARI 2915717:31Touchdown +7
7HOUHOU 358434:40Field goal +3
8ARIARI 29571:33Punt
9HOUHOU 2112765:44Field goal +3
10ARIARI 298231:08Turnover on downs
11HOUHOU 485180:36Missed field goal
12ARIARI 2512636:05Interception
13HOUHOU 209854:20Touchdown +7
14ARIARI 2910714:02Touchdown +7
15HOUARI 266111:59Field goal +3
16ARIARI 2710532:33Touchdown +6
17HOUHOU 356182:17Punt
18ARIARI 4461:09Punt
19HOUHOU 4511554:26Touchdown +7
20ARIARI 358201:56Turnover on downs
21HOUHOU 45201:13End of game

11 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jacoby Brissett27/40249312-1.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Michael Carter14564.003.2
Corey Kiner2115.500.5
Jacoby Brissett362.000.2
Emari Demercado111.00-0.5
Bam Knight1-2-2.00-0.9

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Trey McBride1213134234%12.0
Michael Wilson51154129%-5.4
Michael Carter4438011%1.8
Jalen Brooks131908%0.6
Elijah Higgins12305%-1.7
Pharaoh Brown22105%-0.9
Emari Demercado23008%-3.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Akeem Davis-Gaither470.000
Budda Baker530.000
Garrett Williams530.000
Darren Hall330.000
Kitan Crawford220.000
Will Johnson310.001
Owen Pappoe220.000
Zaven Collins310.000
Walter Nolen121.001
Baron Browning120.000

Houston Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
C.J. Stroud22/2926030115.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jawhar Jordan151016.701.7
Woody Marks7304.300.1
C.J. Stroud6101.700.2
Dare Ogunbowale520.40-2.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Nico Collins3485215%8.0
Dalton Schultz8976135%5.9
Dare Ogunbowale3432015%2.1
Cade Stover3322012%1.9
Jawhar Jordan221708%0.8
Xavier Hutchinson121608%-0.4
Woody Marks11804%0.5
Jayden Higgins11404%-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Azeez Al-Shaair750.000
Henry To'oTo'o460.000
Kamari Lassiter320.012
Damone Clark220.000
Jalen Pitre220.001
Calen Bullock310.002
Christian Harris220.000
Tommy Togiai300.000
Sheldon Rankins120.000
Danielle Hunter211.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
HOU -10.5
Closing total
42.5
ARI moneyline
+455
HOU moneyline
-625

Texans closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 20.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 60 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
ARI 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs DeMeco Ryans