For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Cardinals163 of 174 plays carry both curves
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.2 for TexansExpected points +4.83 for TexansThe model had Cardinals 24 points higher than the market did.play 4
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:21HOU +14% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:03HOU +3% win prob(12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
1st · 15:00HOU +3% win prob38-C.Ryland kicks 63 yards from ARI 35 to HOU 2. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 41 for 39 yards (29-D.Burke).
1st · 12:43ARI +3% win prob(12:43) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud scrambles up the middle to ARI 12 for 1 yard (25-Z.Collins; 97-W.Nolen).
1st · 14:53ARI +2% win prob(14:53) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks left tackle to HOU 43 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins).
2nd · 9:05HOU +2% win prob(9:05) 15-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
1st · 10:23
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nico Collins's 57-yard touchdown catch with 14:21 left in the 1st put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Texans ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Cardinals: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.25Texans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Cardinals: −0.05 expected points added per play
+0.44Texans: +0.44 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.14Cardinals: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.05Texans: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 64 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Texans’s 60 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Texans 7.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
HOU's blitz rate sent, 6.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 12.2% in week 14.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
HOU's sack or hit rate, 6.8%, is past their previous low of 9.3% in week 3 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.9 vs their 11.4%, and they swing ±5.0 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Texans6.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
NoteHOU's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 6.8%, 15.1 points below their season mean of 21.9% and 1.6 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
74Isaiah AdamsG · Every snap100%66 snaps
72Hjalte FroholdtC · Every snap100%66 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%66 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
71Jon Gaines IIC · Full-time98%65 snaps
85Trey McBrideTE · Full-time92%61 snaps
14Michael WilsonWR · Full-time85%56 snaps
22Michael CarterRB · Full-time80%53 snaps
86Jalen BrooksWR · Heavy rotation71%47 snaps
84Elijah HigginsTE · Heavy rotation70%46 snaps
78Josh FryarT · Heavy rotation58%38 snaps
66Demontrey JacobsT · Heavy rotation56%37 snaps
81Trent SherfieldWR · Situational21%14 snaps
49Pharaoh BrownTE · Situational17%11 snaps
82Andre BaccelliaWR · Situational15%10 snaps
45Josiah DeguaraTE · Situational12%8 snaps
31Emari DemercadoRB · Situational11%7 snaps
37Corey KinerRB · Situational8%5 snaps
58Hayden ConnerG · Situational5%3 snaps
20Bam KnightRB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Max MeltonCBDadrion Taylor-DemersonFSJalen ThompsonFSEvan BrownGParis Johnson Jr.TMarvin Harrison Jr.WRXavier WeaverWR
No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash.
More columns →
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Stroud pass+14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:21) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 14:21 · Texans · 2nd & 8 at HOU 43 · gained 57 · +4.83 EP · +13.5% win probability
161 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 80 yards from the HOU 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
48%
Yards
706
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR37-0.3668%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.5674%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.6146%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR12-0.4942%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.2745%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10+0.120%
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.7786%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Cardinals0Texans6
Cardinals0Texans7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 43
Fumble lost1 play
Cardinals0Texans10
Field goal5 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 11
Punt5 plays
Cardinals0Texans16
Cardinals0Texans17
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 49 to the Cardinals 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Texans 18
2nd quarter49 plays
Cardinals6Texans17
Cardinals7Texans17
Touchdown4 plays
Cardinals7Texans20
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Cardinals 37
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Cardinals 36
Cardinals7Texans23
Field goal12 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Cardinals 3
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Texans 42
No good7 plays, from the Texans 48 to the Cardinals 34
3rd quarter36 plays
Intercepted13 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Texans 12
Cardinals7Texans29
Cardinals7Texans30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Cardinals 4
Cardinals13Texans30
Cardinals14Texans30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cardinals 29 to the Texans 20
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Cardinals14Texans33
Field goal4 plays
Cardinals20Texans33
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Texans 11
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 35 to the Cardinals 47
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 4 to the Cardinals 10
Cardinals20Texans39
Cardinals20Texans40
Touchdown14 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Cardinals 3
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Cardinals 35 to the Texans 41
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -10.5
Closing total
42.5
Cardinals moneyline
+455
Texans moneyline
-625
Texans closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 60 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Cardinals 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Jonathan Gannon vs DeMeco Ryans
HOU +2% win prob
(10:23) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 27-W.Marks to ARI 41 for 8 yards (5-B.Browning; 52-J.Burch).
2nd · 11:18ARI +1% win prob(11:18) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks left guard to ARI 36 for 3 yards (3-B.Baker). PENALTY on HOU-79-A.Ersery, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 39 - No Play.
