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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:38 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 11, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
FalconsAtlanta29
BY 1final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay28
Atlanta Falcons 29 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28. Final.
Buccaneers -6 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Atlanta Falcons 29, Buccaneers 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 10, on Zane Gonzalez — 57.3 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 10
Zane Gonzalez
Falcons
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
O 43.5 ✓
Buccaneers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Falcons +57.3% win probability on one snap.
57.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyle PittsFalconsQ4 3:40(3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
15.8pts
David SillsFalconsQ4 0:49(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
30.4pts
What separated them
Every snap
Falcons won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at +0.06 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.27 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at +0.09 expected points per dropback.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — +0.11 expected points per carry, against Buccaneers at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 8 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Falcons175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Swing −57.3 for BuccaneersExpected points −0.60 for BuccaneersThe model had Falcons 11 points higher than the market did.play 184
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04TB +57% win prob(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:49TB +30% win prob(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
4th · 3:40TB +16% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 1:32TB +12% win prob(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to TB 17 for 36 yards (31-A.Winfield; 29-C.Izien).
4th · 2:00ATL +10% win prob(2:00) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 20, Center-86-E.Deckers. 83-D.Thompkins ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (58-M.Watts).
3rd · 9:09TB +10% win prob(9:09) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans to ATL 12 for 45 yards (37-C.Bryant).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Zane Gonzalez's 43-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:04Zane Gonzalez·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap L.McCulloughLead never changed again+329–28
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Falcons8–0Buccaneers
476Total yards340
7.1Yards per play5.5
49%Success rate47%
45%Third-down rate44%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
9Explosive plays8
27First downs22
1Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.22Falcons: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Falcons: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.09Buccaneers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.11Falcons: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 67 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 62 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Buccaneers 3.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, +9.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of +6.3 pts in week 5.
A 2.7-swing turn from week 14.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 14.5%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.03× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Buccaneers8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.4 pts, 12.7 points above their season mean of -3.3 pts and 1.5 times their own 8.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Zane Gonzalez+46% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:04 · Falcons · 3rd & 10 at TB 25 · gained nothing · +0.60 EP · +45.9% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 181. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 90 yards from the TB 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
50%
Yards
816
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.1073%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR38+0.1655%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.5090%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1529%
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4020%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.3780%
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Falcons 44
Punt11 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Buccaneers 49
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Falcons0Buccaneers6
Falcons0Buccaneers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the Falcons 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 39
2nd quarter52 plays
Falcons6Buccaneers7
Falcons7Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 41 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Buccaneers 40
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Falcons 47
Falcons7Buccaneers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Falcons 31
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Falcons13Buccaneers10
Falcons14Buccaneers10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 17
Falcons14Buccaneers13
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Falcons 26
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 45
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Falcons14Buccaneers19
Falcons14Buccaneers20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Falcons 4
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 31
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 10 to the Falcons 43
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 15
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter57 plays
Falcons14Buccaneers26
Falcons14Buccaneers28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Falcons 3
Falcons20Buccaneers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Buccaneers 6
Intercepted5 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Falcons 45
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Falcons26Buccaneers28
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDragCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Touchdown12 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Buccaneers 7
Punt12 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Buccaneers 39
How the play was built
A man in motion.
The sack was on the quarterback.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressured
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Falcons29Buccaneers28
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Buccaneers 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
