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2025 Week 15 · Thu, Dec 11, 2025 · Raymond James Stadium

Atlanta FalconsWinner

29

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

28

TB -6 upsetO 43.5 ✓

Atlanta Falcons 29–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, TB +57% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3TB ↑ATL ↓
Q4 · 0:04ATL 29 — TB 28ATL ball · 3rd & 10TB 57%

(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:04TB +57% win prob(:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
  2. Q4 · 0:49TB +30% win prob(:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 87-D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield).
  3. Q4 · 3:40TB +16% win prob(3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
  4. Q2 · 1:32TB +12% win prob(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts to TB 17 for 36 yards (31-A.Winfield; 29-C.Izien).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 1:41TB Touchdown

    (1:41) 77-C.Heck and 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 44-S.Tucker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 0 — TB 7
  2. Q2 · 12:16ATL Touchdown

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 7
  3. Q2 · 2:08TB Field goal

    (2:08) 4-C.McLaughlin 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: ATL 7 — TB 10
  4. Q2 · 0:45ATL Touchdown

    (:45) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep right to 8-K.Pitts for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — TB 10
  5. Q2 · 0:03TB Field goal

    (:03) 4-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — TB 13
  6. Q3 · 6:25TB Touchdown

    (6:25) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 82-D.Culp for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — TB 20
  7. Q4 · 13:38TB Touchdown

    (13:38) (Shotgun) 65-D.Feeney reported in as eligible. 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 14-C.Godwin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (two-point conversion good)

    Score after this play: ATL 14 — TB 28
  8. Q4 · 9:42ATL Touchdown

    (9:42) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: ATL 20 — TB 28
  9. Q4 · 3:40ATL Touchdown

    (3:40) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    Score after this play: ATL 26 — TB 28
  10. Q4 · 0:04ATL Field goal

    (:04) 45-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    Score after this play: ATL 29 — TB 28

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricFalconsBuccaneers
Offensive plays6762
Total yards476 (edge)340
Yards per play7.1 (edge)5.5
Expected points added / play0.22 (edge)0.06
Success rate49% (edge)47%
Dropback rate69%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.27 (edge)0.09
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.11 (edge)-0.01
Third downs5/11 (edge)4/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)8
First downs gained on snaps27 (edge)22
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers11

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Kirk CousinsQB

30/44, 373 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.2 expected points added · +7.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Baker MayfieldQB

19/34, 277 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.4 expected points added · -1.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Bijan RobinsonRB

19 att, 93 yds, 1 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Bucky IrvingRB

16 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Kyle PittsTE

11/12 for 166 yds, 3 TD

29% of team targets · 13.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

6/12 for 132 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1TBTB 347222:27Punt
2ATLATL 69496:11Punt
3TBTB 1712784:44Touchdown +7
4ATLATL 3511704:27Touchdown +7
5TBTB 206112:36Punt
6ATLATL 297383:06Punt
7TBTB 209494:25Field goal +3
8ATLATL 356651:26Touchdown +7
9TBTB 266250:38Field goal +3
10ATLATL 356233:24Punt
11TBTB 1010755:14Touchdown +7
12ATLATL 359341:56Punt
13TBTB 107403:33Punt
14ATLATL 13290:47Fumble
15TBATL 255171:32Touchdown +8
16ATLATL 3510653:57Touchdown +6
17TBTB 405151:15Interception
18ATLATL 3311734:48Touchdown +6
19TBTB 27881:45Punt
20ATLATL 309501:49Field goal +3

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Kirk Cousins30/4437330117.2

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bijan Robinson19934.911.6
Tyler Allgeier2189.000.6

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Kyle Pitts1112166329%13.5
Bijan Robinson81182027%-0.2
David Sills61078024%2.5
Darnell Mooney3635015%1.3
Charlie Woerner221205%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier Watts540.000
Jessie Bates620.000
Kaden Elliss600.000
Cobee Bryant500.001
David Onyemata310.000
James Pearce Jr.212.002
A.J. Terrell210.001
Dee Alford300.011
Divine Deablo120.500
Brandon Dorlus111.000

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield19/342772154.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bucky Irving16603.80-1.5
Rachaad White12020.001.2
Sean Tucker471.810.1
Baker Mayfield111.00-0.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Mike Evans612132038%2.2
Emeka Egbuka4764022%3.5
Jalen McMillan223806%2.7
Chris Godwin Jr.4520116%2.5
Bucky Irving131109%-0.7
Rachaad White11603%0.3
Devin Culp11613%1.7
Tez Johnson01003%-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Antoine Winfield Jr.850.000
Christian Izien440.000
Deion Jones440.000
Lavonte David330.001
Jamel Dean500.000
Logan Hall230.000
Kindle Vildor310.000
Yaya Diaby220.000
Haason Reddick111.000
Jacob Parrish200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
TB -6
Closing total
43.5
ATL moneyline
+225
TB moneyline
-278

Buccaneers closed -6 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 57 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
56°F, wind 5 mph
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
ATL 4 days · TB 4 days
Coaches
Raheem Morris vs Todd Bowles

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.