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connecting · reading the slate
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q2 9:46, 2nd and 8, on Jordan Battle — 10.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Baltimore Ravens 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:46, Bengals +10.1% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:46 · 2nd and 8
Jordan Battle
Bengals
(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Rasheen Ali's 30-yard touchdown catch with 4:42 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Rasheen Ali30-yd TD catch30-yard touchdown catchfrom Lamar JacksonLead never changed again+77–0Alohi Gilman84-yd defense TD84-yard touchdownthe defense scored it · picked off by K.Van Noy+724–04 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 37 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bengals’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bengals 1.
Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CIN's sack or hit rate, 27.8%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
18 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 15.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points. · +1.7σ from their own normal
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.1 pts in week 14 against −8.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 14 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Ravens-9.1 ptsright on their number · −0.6 vs their -8.5 pts, and they swing ±9.8 week to week (−0.06× that swing) · 37 snaps
Bengals-8.3 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −9.9 vs their 1.6 pts, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 71 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 13% to 85%
Tendencies room →Ravens41.9%right on their number · −3.9 vs their 45.9%, and they swing ±12.8 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 31 early downs
Bengals58.8%right on their number · −2.6 vs their 61.4%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 51 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 45%
Tendencies room →Ravens33.3%leaned — faked the run · +10.2 vs their 23.2%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+1.21× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
Bengals9.1%inside their normal wobble · −7.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Ravens—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 34.9%.
Bengals80.0%leaned — went for it · +46.0 vs their 34.0%, and they swing ±26.8 week to week (+1.72× that swing) · 5 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 57%
Tendencies room →Ravens13.6%leaned — sat back · −16.2 vs their 29.8%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (−1.55× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bengals27.8%inside their normal wobble · +6.6 vs their 21.2%, and they swing ±9.9 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 34%
Tendencies room →Ravens22.7%leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bengals27.8%leaned — got home · +13.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
CIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.3 pts, 9.9 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Cincinnati Bengals
48 dressed · 4 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 4
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Who moved the needle
Passing · CIN
25/39, 225 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-13.7 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected
Passing · BAL
8/12, 150 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
0.1 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected
Receiving · CIN
10/16 for 132 yds, 0 TD
44% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Rasheen Ali banked 8.2 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr ChaseWR · Alpha Receiver | 23.2 | −2.8 | 97% | 98% | 44% | 57% | 10/16, 132 yd |
| Chase BrownRB · Committee Back | 16.0 | −0.5 | 62% | 68% | 19% | 3% | 13 car, 53 yd · 7/7, 37 yd |
| Zay FlowersWR · Alpha Receiver | 15.8 | +4.6 | 78% | 94% | 42% | 69% | 3/5, 68 yd, 1 TD |
| Lamar JacksonQB · Starter QB | 14.6 | +6.3 | 88% | — | 0% | — | 8/12, 150 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 2 car, 26 yd |
| Rasheen AliRB · Receiving Back | 11.2 | +8.2 | 27% | 56% | 17% | 0% | 2/2, 32 yd, 1 TD |
| Derrick HenryRB · Committee Back | 10.0 | +3.8 | 37% | 22% | 0% | — | 11 car, 100 yd |
| Keaton MitchellRB · Committee Back | 6.6 | +0.7 | 39% | 22% | 8% | 0% | 8 car, 66 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Joe BurrowQB · Starter QB | 5.5 | −11.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 25/39, 225 yd, 2 INT · 2 car, 5 yd |
| Samaje PerineRB · Committee Back | 5.3 | −3.2 | 45% | 39% | 3% | 0% | 14 car, 42 yd · 1/1, 1 yd |
| Tanner HudsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.6 | −3.0 | 25% | 36% | 14% | 8% | 3/5, 16 yd |
| DeAndre HopkinsWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | +2.5 | 32% | 56% | 8% | 6% | 1/1, 32 yd |
| Mark AndrewsTE · Alpha Receiver | 3.8 | −1.5 | 41% | 61% | 25% | 33% | 2/3, 18 yd |
| Drew SampleTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | +0.3 | 54% | 36% | 6% | 1% | 2/2, 12 yd |
| Mitchell TinsleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −2.3 | 45% | 41% | 6% | 8% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Mike GesickiTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.1 | −2.1 | 57% | 75% | 6% | 14% | 1/2, 11 yd |
| Charlie KolarTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 51% | 28% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| LaJohntay WesterWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 22% | 22% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Tylan WallaceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Andrei IosivasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 89% | 91% | 3% | 11% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Charlie JonesWR | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Tahj BrooksRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Tyler HuntleyQB | -0.3 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:42 · Ravens · 3rd & 7 at CIN 30 · gained 30 · +4.13 EP · +14.3% win probability
136 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 146 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 136 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
3 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
146 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
146 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Ravens6
Bengals0Ravens7Bengals0Ravens13Bengals0Ravens14Bengals0Ravens17Bengals0Ravens23Bengals0Ravens24Bengals0Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Ravens at Bengals, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | 8/12 | 150 | 2 | 1 | 4 | +0.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 11 | 100 | 9.1 | 0 | +4.1 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 0 | +2.2 |
| Lamar Jackson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers | 3 | 5 | 68 | 1 | 42% | +1.2 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 8% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roquan Smith | 8 | 6 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trenton Simpson | 4 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Hamilton |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Burrow | 25/39 | 225 | 0 | 2 | 3 | −13.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_BAL_CIN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 24 — under by 27.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 2 |
| 26 |
| 13.0 |
| 0 |
| +1.3 |
| Tyler Huntley | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| +2.0 |
| Rasheen Ali | 2 | 2 | 32 | 1 | 17% | +3.3 |
| Mark Andrews | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 25% | +0.7 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8% | −1.0 |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Nate Wiggins | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alohi Gilman | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Malaki Starks | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Travis Jones | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Jenkins | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| David Ojabo | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Basil Okoye | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Samaje Perine | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 | −6.0 |
| Joe Burrow | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 16 | 132 | 0 | 44% | +4.1 |
| Chase Brown | 7 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 19% | +3.7 |
| Mitchell Tinsley | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 6% | +0.2 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 | 14% | −10.3 |
| Drew Sample | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 6% | −0.7 |
| Mike Gesicki | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 6% | −1.4 |
| Samaje Perine | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Andrei Iosivas | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Battle | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Demetrius Knight Jr. | 5 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| B.J. Hill | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Geno Stone | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Barrett Carter | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kris Jenkins | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Murphy | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Turner II | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Giles-Harris | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
