2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Paycor Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

BAL -2.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓10°FRavens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Baltimore Ravens 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:46, BAL +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:46BAL 0 — CIN 0BAL ball · 2nd & 8BAL 66%

(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:46BAL +10% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
Q2 · 4:42CIN +10% win prob(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:48BAL +8% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [41-D.Jones] at BAL 14. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (30-C.Brown).
Q1 · 3:44BAL +7% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at BAL 40 for -15 yards (95-T.Robinson).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q2 · 4:42BAL Touchdown
(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 7 — CIN 0
Q2 · 0:29BAL Touchdown
(:29) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 14 — CIN 0
Q3 · 9:08BAL Field goal
(9:08) 33-T.Loop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Score after this play: BAL 17 — CIN 0
Q4 · 7:55BAL Touchdown
(7:55) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 87-T.Hudson INTERCEPTED by 53-K.Van Noy at BAL 5. 53-K.Van Noy to BAL 16 for 11 yards. Handoff to 12-A.Gilman for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BAL 24 — CIN 0

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Bengals
Offensive plays	37	71
Total yards	320 (edge)	298
Yards per play	8.6 (edge)	4.2
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	-0.31
Success rate	46% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	49%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.07 (edge)	-0.35
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.33 (edge)	-0.24
Third downs	2/6 (edge)	3/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	15	16 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Ravens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.31.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Joe BurrowQB

25/39, 225 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-13.7 expected points added · +2.6% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

8/12, 150 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.1 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Derrick HenryRB

11 att, 100 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BAL

Keaton MitchellRB

8 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

Ja'Marr ChaseWR

10/16 for 132 yds, 0 TD

44% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Receiving · BAL

Zay FlowersWR

3/5 for 68 yds, 1 TD

42% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 34	8	13	3:45	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 20	12	45	8:20	Punt
3	BAL	BAL 15	4	-4	2:15	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 43	7	23	4:03	Interception
5	BAL	BAL 35	4	25	1:58	Interception
6	CIN	CIN 27	4	13	2:05	Punt
7	BAL	BAL 21	6	79	2:59	Touchdown +7
8	CIN	CIN 21	9	27	3:30	Punt
9	BAL	BAL 20	6	80	0:42	Touchdown +7
10	CIN	CIN 38	5	4	0:23	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 25	7	43	3:11	Turnover on downs
12	BAL	BAL 32	6	60	2:44	Field goal +3
13	CIN	CIN 26	8	15	4:27	Punt
14	BAL	BAL 8	8	41	4:16	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 13	16	85	7:44	Defensive touchdown
16	CIN	CIN 30	12	43	5:36	Turnover on downs
17	BAL	BAL 27	5	26	2:02	End of game

3 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 85 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a defensive touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	8/12	150	2	1	4	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Derrick Henry	11	100	9.1	4.1
Keaton Mitchell	8	66	8.3	2.2
Lamar Jackson	2	26	13.0	1.3
Tyler Huntley	3	-3	-1.0	-2.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Zay Flowers	3	5	68	1	42%	1.2
DeAndre Hopkins	1	1	32	0	8%	2.0
Rasheen Ali	2	2	32	1	17%	3.3
Mark Andrews	2	3	18	0	25%	0.7
Keaton Mitchell	0	1	0	0	8%	-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	8	6	0.0	0
Trenton Simpson	4	5	0.0	0
Nate Wiggins	4	4	0.0	1
Alohi Gilman	5	3	0.0	1
Kyle Hamilton	3	5	0.0	0
Malaki Starks	4	1	0.0	1
John Jenkins	2	2	0.0	0
Travis Jones	2	2	1.0	0
Basil Okoye	1	1	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	1	1	0.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Joe Burrow	25/39	225	0	2	3	-13.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Chase Brown	13	53	4.1	-0.5
Samaje Perine	14	42	3.0	-6.0
Joe Burrow	2	5	2.5	-1.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Ja'Marr Chase	10	16	132	44%	4.1
Chase Brown	7	7	37	19%	3.7
Mitchell Tinsley	1	2	16	6%	0.2
Tanner Hudson	3	5	16	14%	-10.3
Drew Sample	2	2	12	6%	-0.7
Mike Gesicki	1	2	11	6%	-1.4
Samaje Perine	1	1	1	3%	-0.7
Andrei Iosivas	0	1	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Battle	7	1	0.0	1	1
Demetrius Knight Jr.	5	1	2.0	0	0
B.J. Hill	1	4	0.0	0	0
Geno Stone	3	1	0.0	0	0
Barrett Carter	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kris Jenkins	1	2	0.0	0	0
Myles Murphy	2	0	2.0	0	0
DJ Turner II	2	0	0.0	0	0
Chase Brown	1	0	0.0	0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -2.5
Closing total: 51.5
BAL moneyline: -162
CIN moneyline: +136

Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 24 — under by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paycor Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 10°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: BAL 7 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Zac Taylor

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.