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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 24 at Cincinnati Bengals 0. Final.
Ravens -2.5 ✓U 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Baltimore Ravens 24, Bengals 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 9:46, 2nd and 8, on Jordan Battle — 10.1 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:46 · 2nd and 8
Jordan Battle
Bengals
(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
4°F
Ravens closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Baltimore Ravens 24–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 9:46, Bengals +10.1% win probability on one snap.
10.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Marlon HumphreyRavensQ2 11:48(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [41-D.Jones] at BAL 14. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (30-C.Brown).
7.7pts
Rasheen AliRavensQ2 4:42(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.33 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.31 expected points per snap.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.07 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.35 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Ravens138 of 146 plays carry both curves
(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
Swing +10.1 for BengalsExpected points +3.77 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 15 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:46BAL +10% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Battle at CIN 27. 27-J.Battle to CIN 27 for no gain (4-Z.Flowers).
2nd · 4:42CIN +10% win prob(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:48BAL +8% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle intended for 1-J.Chase INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [41-D.Jones] at BAL 14. 44-M.Humphrey to BAL 35 for 21 yards (30-C.Brown).
1st · 3:44BAL +7% win prob(3:44) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at BAL 40 for -15 yards (95-T.Robinson).
2nd · 13:32CIN +7% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-53-K.Van Noy, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 49 - No Play.
2nd · 6:50CIN +6% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to CIN 33 for 32 yards (27-J.Battle).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Rasheen Ali's 30-yard touchdown catch with 4:42 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd9:08Tyler Loop·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Stout · snap N.Moore+317–0
4th7:55Alohi Gilman·84-yd defence TD84-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · picked off by K.Van Noy+724–0
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBengals
Ravens6–2Bengals
320Total yards298
8.6Yards per play4.2
46%Success rate38%
33%Third-down rate20%
0Red-zone touchdowns0
12Explosive plays3
15First downs16
4Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Ravens ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Ravens: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.31Bengals: −0.31 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.07Ravens: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.35Bengals: −0.35 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.33Ravens: +0.33 expected points added per play
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 37 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Bengals’s 71 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Bengals 1.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.31.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 27.8%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
18 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonFourth Down
CIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 80.0%, is past their previous high of 50.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 15.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.8 points.
CIN's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.1 pts in week 14 against −8.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
BAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 2.9% in week 14 against 22.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -34 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +8.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.09× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Bengals27.8%
leaned — got home · +13.9 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.74× that swing) · 18 dropbacks
NoteCIN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.3 pts, 9.9 points below their season mean of 1.6 pts and 1.9 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 5 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+14% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 26-R.Ali for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:42 · Ravens · 3rd & 7 at CIN 30 · gained 30 · +4.13 EP · +14.3% win probability
136 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 146 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 136 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 141. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
3 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 80 yards from the BAL 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
146 of 146 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
146
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
40%
Yards
615
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR42-0.4464%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23-0.0452%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.0923%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR10+0.0250%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.4175%
Bengals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4740%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
146 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
146 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 34 to midfield
Punt16 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Ravens 25
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Ravens 18
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, dropped.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, two backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Ravens 29
Intercepted4 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Bengals 40
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 27 to the Bengals 35
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Ravens6Bengals0
Ravens7Bengals0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Bengals 30
Punt11 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 48
Ravens13Bengals0
Ravens14Bengals0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Bengals 28
The period ended7 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 49
3rd quarter31 plays
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Ravens 32
Ravens17Bengals0
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Bengals 8
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 26 to the Bengals 41
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 8 to the Bengals 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter35 plays
Ravens23Bengals0
Touchdown16 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Ravens 2
Ravens24Bengals0
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Ravens 27
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Bengals 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
