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polling · 1800s tick · as of 3:44 AM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Gillette Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q4 10:03, 1st and 10, on TreVeyon Henderson — 29.2 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
Buffalo Bills 35–31. Biggest swing: Q4 10:03, Patriots +29.2% win probability on one snap.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 10:03 · 1st and 10
TreVeyon Henderson
Patriots
(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
29.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — +0.59 expected points per carry, against Bills at +0.23 expected points per carry.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Bills won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Patriots at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots owned this one and still lost it — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bills at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.29 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
James Cook's 11-yard rushing touchdown with 6:53 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Billscategory by categoryPatriots
Bills ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 64 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Patriots’s 51 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bills 6, Patriots 5.
Patriots outgained Bills 385-352 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
1 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 80.0% in week 14 against 33.3% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 21.5 points. · −1.3σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Bills-5.2 ptsright on their number · −2.1 vs their -3.1 pts, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.32× that swing) · 64 snaps
Patriots-2.7 ptsinside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 2.0 pts, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.81× that swing) · 51 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 21% to 80%
Tendencies room →Bills50.0%right on their number · −0.3 vs their 50.3%, and they swing ±11.5 week to week (−0.03× that swing) · 50 early downs
Patriots50.0%right on their number · −4.2 vs their 54.2%, and they swing ±9.2 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 40 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -12% to 66%
Tendencies room →Bills42.4%inside their normal wobble · +15.3 vs their 27.1%, and they swing ±15.3 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Patriots17.2%inside their normal wobble · −7.7 vs their 24.9%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -42% to 128%
Fourth Down room →Bills33.3%leaned — took the kick · −27.7 vs their 61.1%, and they swing ±21.5 week to week (−1.29× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
Patriots—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 43.0%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -0% to 57%
Tendencies room →Bills24.1%inside their normal wobble · −6.8 vs their 30.9%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.72× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Patriots27.3%right on their number · −0.9 vs their 28.2%, and they swing ±11.1 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 38%
Tendencies room →Bills17.2%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 16.4%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Patriots12.1%inside their normal wobble · −3.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.56× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 27.7 points below their season mean of 61.1% and 1.3 times their own 21.5-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Buffalo Bills
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · BUF
19/28, 193 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
9.5 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected
Passing · NE
14/23, 155 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-3.4 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
TreVeyon Henderson banked 16.8 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James CookRB · Committee Back | 31.1 | +10.8 | 67% | 64% | 12% | 0% | 22 car, 107 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 4 yd, 1 TD |
| TreVeyon HendersonRB · Committee Back | 30.1 | +16.8 | 48% | 34% | 14% | 8% | 14 car, 148 yd, 2 TD · 2/3, 13 yd |
| Josh AllenQB · Starter QB | 24.5 | +2.8 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 19/28, 193 yd, 3 TD · 11 car, 48 yd |
| Drake MayeQB · Starter QB | 20.5 | +5.6 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 14/23, 155 yd, 1 INT · 4 car, 43 yd, 2 TD |
| Dawson KnoxTE · Rotational Receiver | 18.7 | +7.2 | 64% | 55% | 15% | 10% | 3/4, 37 yd, 2 TD |
| Khalil ShakirWR · Featured Receiver | 11.5 | +3.3 | 69% | 79% | 19% | 19% | 5/5, 65 yd |
| Rhamondre StevensonRB · Receiving Back | 10.7 | +2.6 | 67% | 83% | 14% | 1% | 6 car, 50 yd · 3/3, 27 yd |
| Mack HollinsWR · Alpha Receiver | 8.1 | −6.8 | 79% | 76% | 36% | 56% | 4/8, 41 yd |
| Dalton KincaidTE · Rotational Receiver | 6.4 | −2.1 | 36% | 45% | 15% | 21% | 3/4, 34 yd |
| Ty JohnsonRB · Receiving Back | 5.8 | −0.9 | 26% | 27% | 12% | 0% | 4 car, 13 yd · 3/3, 15 yd |
| Stefon DiggsWR · Featured Receiver | 5.6 | −0.5 | 50% | 59% | 18% | 9% | 3/4, 26 yd |
| Kayshon BoutteWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.0 | +2.4 | 75% | 90% | 5% | 11% | 1/1, 30 yd |
| Hunter HenryTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | −2.4 | 87% | 90% | 14% | 14% | 1/3, 18 yd |
| Josh PalmerWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.6 | −1.0 | 33% | 45% | 8% | 11% | 1/2, 16 yd |
| Ray DavisRB | 2.3 | +1.1 | — | — | — | — | 6 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jackson HawesTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.9 | +0.4 | 44% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 9 yd |
| DeMario DouglasWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.5 | −0.5 | 19% | 21% | 0% | — | 1 car, 5 yd |
| Reggie GilliamRB | 0.0 | — | 11% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Brandin CooksWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −6.6 | 34% | 42% | 12% | 46% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Kyle WilliamsWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 5 snaps — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 2 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 10:03 · Patriots · 1st & 10 at NE 35 · gained 65 · +5.30 EP · +27.3% win probability
153 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 166 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 161. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
10 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 94 yards from the NE 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Bills0
Patriots6Bills0Patriots7Bills0Patriots13Bills0Patriots14Bills0Patriots20Bills0Patriots21Bills6Patriots21Bills7Patriots21Bills7Patriots24Bills13Patriots24Bills14Patriots24Bills20Patriots24Bills21Patriots24How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, caught in traffic.
Bills27Patriots24Bills28Patriots24How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Bills28Patriots30Bills28Patriots31Bills34Patriots31Bills35Patriots31How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Bills at Patriots, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 19/28 | 193 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +9.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook | 22 | 107 | 4.9 | 2 | +4.6 |
| Josh Allen | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Ty Johnson |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Shakir | 5 | 5 | 65 | 0 | 19% | +4.9 |
| Dawson Knox | 3 | 4 | 37 | 2 | 15% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Milano | 9 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxwell Hairston | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Taron Johnson |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | 14/23 | 155 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −3.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_BUF_NE
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 66 — over by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 4 |
| 13 |
| 3.3 |
| 0 |
| −0.7 |
| +6.5 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 | 15% | +1.6 |
| Josh Palmer | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8% | +1.2 |
| Ty Johnson | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 12% | −0.7 |
| Ray Davis | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 4% | +0.9 |
| Jackson Hawes | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 4% | +0.8 |
| James Cook | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12% | +0.1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −1.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Cole Bishop | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Poyer | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Lewis | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Rousseau | 1 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shaq Thompson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Javon Solomon | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Ogunjobi | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 14 | 148 | 10.6 | 2 | +8.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 | +3.0 |
| Drake Maye | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 2 | +4.4 |
| DeMario Douglas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 | 36% | −0.3 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 1 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 5% | +3.1 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 3 | 3 | 27 | 0 | 14% | +1.0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 | 18% | −1.3 |
| Hunter Henry | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 | 14% | −0.4 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 14% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylinn Hawkins | 4 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Jones | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Elliss | 3 | 5 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jack Gibbens | 3 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Woodson | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian Gonzalez | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Charles Woods | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlton Davis III | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jahlani Tavai | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Taylor III | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
