2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Gillette Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

New England Patriots

BUF -2.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓32°FBills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Buffalo Bills 35–31. Biggest swing: Q4 10:03, NE +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 10:03BUF 28 — NE 30NE ball · 1st & 10BUF 72%

(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 10:03NE +29% win prob(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 11:22NE +23% win prob(11:22) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-K.Shakir to NE 8 for 37 yards (25-M.Jones). Penalty on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 10:10NE +19% win prob(10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 8:19NE +12% win prob(8:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on NE-7-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NE 47 - No Play.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

Q1 · 10:28NE Touchdown
(10:28) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 7
Q1 · 0:31NE Touchdown
(:31) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 14
Q2 · 6:03NE Touchdown
(6:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson right guard for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 0 — NE 21
Q2 · 2:00BUF Touchdown
(2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 4-J.Cook for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NE 21
Q2 · 0:02NE Field goal
(:02) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
Score after this play: BUF 7 — NE 24
Q3 · 11:34BUF Touchdown
(11:34) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 14 — NE 24
Q3 · 3:51BUF Touchdown
(3:51) (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard to NE 1 for 2 yards (21-J.Hawkins). Buffalo challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-J.Cook left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 21 — NE 24
Q4 · 10:10BUF Touchdown
(10:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 28 — NE 24
Q4 · 10:03NE Touchdown
(10:03) 74-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 32-T.Henderson left end for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 28 — NE 31
Q4 · 6:53BUF Touchdown
(6:53) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)
Score after this play: BUF 35 — NE 31

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Patriots
Offensive plays	64	51
Total yards	352	385 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	7.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.26 (edge)	0.24
Success rate	47%	55% (edge)
Dropback rate	52%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.23	0.59 (edge)
Third downs	8/13 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Patriots outgained Bills 385–352 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

19/28, 193 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.5 expected points added · +10.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Drake MayeQB

14/23, 155 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -0.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

TreVeyon HendersonRB

14 att, 148 yds, 2 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

James CookRB

22 att, 107 yds, 2 TD

4.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Khalil ShakirWR

5/5 for 65 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Mack HollinsWR

4/8 for 41 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · -0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 27	10	73	4:39	Touchdown +7
2	BUF	NE 49	5	5	1:14	Punt
3	NE	NE 12	6	21	2:49	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 17	4	0	2:35	Punt
5	NE	50	7	50	3:18	Touchdown +7
6	BUF	BUF 30	10	29	4:55	Punt
7	NE	NE 6	9	94	4:37	Touchdown +7
8	BUF	NE 42	9	42	3:57	Touchdown +7
9	NE	NE 35	8	47	1:56	Field goal +3
10	BUF	NE 44	8	44	3:31	Touchdown +7
11	NE	NE 26	5	-6	2:11	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 30	12	65	5:29	Touchdown +7
13	NE	NE 19	8	38	2:19	Interception
14	BUF	BUF 9	14	101	6:27	Touchdown +7
15	NE	NE 35	3	65	0:14	Touchdown +7
16	BUF	BUF 35	9	50	3:01	Touchdown +7
17	NE	NE 27	5	-2	1:40	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 29	4	6	2:25	Punt
19	NE	NE 17	4	5	0:56	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	NE 22	6	10	1:47	End of game

10 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 101 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	19/28	193	3	0	2	9.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Cook	22	107	4.9	2	4.6
Josh Allen	11	48	4.4	0	-0.5
Ty Johnson	4	13	3.3	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Khalil Shakir	5	5	65	0	19%	4.9
Dawson Knox	3	4	37	2	15%	6.5
Dalton Kincaid	3	4	34	0	15%	1.6
Josh Palmer	1	2	16	0	8%	1.2
Ty Johnson	3	3	15	0	12%	-0.7
Ray Davis	1	1	13	0	4%	0.9
Jackson Hawes	1	1	9	0	4%	0.8
James Cook	2	3	4	1	12%	0.1
Brandin Cooks	0	3	0	0	12%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Matt Milano	9	1	2.0
Maxwell Hairston	4	2	0.0
Jordan Poyer	1	4	0.0
Taron Johnson	3	2	0.0
Cole Bishop	2	3	0.0
Cam Lewis	4	0	0.0
Greg Rousseau	1	2	1.0
Shaq Thompson	2	1	0.0
Javon Solomon	2	0	0.0
Larry Ogunjobi	1	1	0.0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drake Maye	14/23	155	0	1	3	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
TreVeyon Henderson	14	148	10.6	2	8.3
Rhamondre Stevenson	6	50	8.3	0	3.0
Drake Maye	4	43	10.8	2	4.4
DeMario Douglas	1	5	5.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Mack Hollins	4	8	41	36%	-0.3
Kayshon Boutte	1	1	30	5%	3.1
Rhamondre Stevenson	3	3	27	14%	1.0
Stefon Diggs	3	4	26	18%	-1.3
Hunter Henry	1	3	18	14%	-0.4
TreVeyon Henderson	2	3	13	14%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jaylinn Hawkins	4	7	0.0	1
Marcus Jones	8	2	0.0	0
Christian Elliss	3	5	0.0	1
Jack Gibbens	3	5	1.0	0
Craig Woodson	3	4	0.0	0
Christian Gonzalez	1	4	0.0	1
Charles Woods	3	0	0.0	0
Jahlani Tavai	1	2	0.0	0
Carlton Davis III	0	3	0.0	1
Leonard Taylor III	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2.5
Closing total: 49.5
BUF moneyline: -142
NE moneyline: +120

Bills closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 4.

Total closed 49.5; the game landed 66 — over by 16.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 32°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: BUF 7 days · NE 13 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Mike Vrabel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.