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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q4 0:12, 2nd and 10, on Tyler Shough — 17.6 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:12 · 2nd and 10
Tyler Shough
Saints
(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.
New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, Saints +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Saints won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 8.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Charlie Smyth's 47-yard field goal with 0:06 left in the 4th put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Charlie Smyth47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder K.Kroeger · snap Z.WoodLead never changed again+317–207 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Pantherscategory by categorySaints
Saints ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Saints’s 61 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Saints 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's blitz rate sent, 9.7%, is past their previous low of 18.5% in week 7 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.9 points.
NO's early-down pass rate turned over: 36.6% in week 14 against 66.7% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 17 pts
Over Expected room →Panthers-12.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · −6.2 vs their -5.9 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (−0.68× that swing) · 56 snaps
Saints0.1 ptsinside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their -3.4 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.51× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 18% to 90%
Tendencies room →Panthers53.8%right on their number · +0.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±13.6 week to week (+0.07× that swing) · 39 early downs
Saints66.7%inside their normal wobble · +7.8 vs their 58.8%, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (+0.67× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 48%
Tendencies room →Panthers22.6%right on their number · −0.2 vs their 22.8%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Saints22.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.7 vs their 18.8%, and they swing ±7.0 week to week (+0.53× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -7% to 110%
Fourth Down room →Panthers75.0%right on their number · +7.0 vs their 68.0%, and they swing ±15.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Saints—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 48.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 68%
Tendencies room →Panthers32.5%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 28.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints9.7%leaned — sat back · −22.9 vs their 32.6%, and they swing ±13.9 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 28%
Tendencies room →Panthers12.5%inside their normal wobble · +3.2 vs their 9.3%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Saints9.7%inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.91× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
NO's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 9.7%, 22.9 points below their season mean of 32.6% and 1.7 times their own 13.9-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Carolina Panthers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
24/32, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
8.6 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected
Passing · CAR
15/24, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
7.7 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalen Coker banked 6.5 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris OlaveWR · Alpha Receiver | 20.5 | +4.0 | 84% | 85% | 29% | 48% | 6/9, 85 yd, 1 TD |
| Tyler ShoughQB · Starter QB | 18.1 | +2.4 | 99% | — | 0% | — | 24/32, 272 yd, 1 TD · 8 car, 32 yd |
| Bryce YoungQB · Starter QB | 15.4 | +1.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 163 yd, 1 TD · 7 car, 49 yd |
| Jalen CokerWR · Featured Receiver | 14.0 | +6.5 | 68% | 68% | 20% | 28% | 4/4, 60 yd, 1 TD |
| Rico DowdleRB · Committee Back | 12.4 | +0.9 | 60% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 16 car, 49 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 5 yd |
| Devaughn VeleWR · Featured Receiver | 11.9 | +1.8 | 55% | 39% | 19% | 26% | 5/6, 69 yd |
| Devin NealRB | 10.2 | +4.3 | 32% | 22% | 3% | 1% | 7 car, 28 yd, 1 TD · 1/1, 4 yd |
| Audric EstiméRB | 8.0 | +2.3 | — | — | — | — | No snap count on file, so his shares read as a dash. |
| Juwan JohnsonTE · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +1.1 | 61% | 63% | 13% | 6% | 4/4, 30 yd |
| Kevin Austin Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −1.7 | 38% | 49% | 16% | 14% | 3/5, 33 yd |
| Xavier LegetteWR · Rotational Receiver | 5.9 | +1.7 | 74% | 68% | 15% | 20% | 2/3, 39 yd |
| Chuba HubbardRB | 4.8 | −1.2 | 42% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 8 car, 29 yd · 1/1, 9 yd |
| Tetairoa McMillanWR · Featured Receiver | 4.5 | −2.0 | 84% | 74% | 20% | 22% | 2/4, 25 yd |
| Tommy TrembleTE · Featured Receiver | 3.3 | −3.1 | 49% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 2/4, 13 yd |
| Ja'Tavion SandersTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.5 | −0.5 | 53% | 48% | 10% | 1% | 2/2, 5 yd |
| Jimmy Horn Jr.WR · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.8 | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Jack StollTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.7 | +0.4 | 14% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 1/1, 7 yd |
| Evan HullRB | 1.2 | −1.1 | 32% | 24% | 0% | — | 4 car, 12 yd |
| Mason TiptonWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.1 | −2.8 | 80% | 80% | 6% | 7% | 1 car, -4 yd · 1/2, 5 yd |
| Taysom HillQB | 0.2 | −2.1 | 22% | — | 0% | — | 2 car, 2 yd |
| Mitchell EvansTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 44% | 23% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Trevor EtienneRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | Did not take a snap. |
| Brycen TremayneWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 14% | 6% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Spencer RattlerQB | 0.0 | −0.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Dante PettisWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
5 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Saints attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:33 · Saints · 3rd & 6 at CAR 12 · gained 12 · +3.14 EP · +18.8% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 164 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 95 yards from the NO 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NO attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Panthers6
Saints0Panthers7Saints0Panthers7Saints6Panthers7Saints7How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
Panthers10Saints7How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers16Saints7Panthers17Saints7Panthers17Saints10How the play was built
A man in motion.
From outside the pocket.
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Panthers17Saints16Panthers17Saints17How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Panthers17Saints20How the play was built
Empty backfield, a screen, nobody in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, the ball was not catchable.
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Panthers at Saints, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 15/24 | 163 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +7.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 7 | 49 | 7.0 | 0 | +2.5 |
| Rico Dowdle | 16 | 49 | 3.1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 | −4.8 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 4 | 60 | 1 | 20% | +6.8 |
| Xavier Legette | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 15% | +2.9 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Scott | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaycee Horn | 6 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Bobby Brown III | 3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Chau Smith-Wade |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 24/32 | 272 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +8.6 |
| Spencer Rattler | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0.1 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_CAR_NO
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 37 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| Tetairoa McMillan | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 | 20% | +1.3 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 20% | −0.5 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 5% | +1.7 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 5% | −0.3 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 5% | +0.0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 10% | −0.7 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Mike Jackson | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christian Rozeboom | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tre'von Moehrig | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A'Shawn Robinson | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Derrick Brown | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Wonnum | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 | +4.5 |
| Devin Neal | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 | −0.4 |
| Evan Hull | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 | −3.4 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 | −2.2 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 6 | 9 | 85 | 1 | 29% | +3.9 |
| Devaughn Vele | 5 | 6 | 69 | 0 | 19% | +9.0 |
| Audric Estimé | 3 | 3 | 39 | 0 | 10% | +1.2 |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 | 16% | +0.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 13% | +3.2 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 3% | +0.3 |
| Mason Tipton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6% | −0.6 |
| Devin Neal | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Sanker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bullard | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Young | 4 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howden | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Demario Davis | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kool-Aid McKinstry | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pete Werner | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alontae Taylor | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Riley | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
