For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Carolina Panthers

17

New Orleans SaintsWinner

20

CAR -2.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓Dome

New Orleans Saints 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:12, NO +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3NO ↑CAR ↓
Q4 · 0:12CAR 17 — NO 17NO ball · 2nd & 10NO 56%

(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:12NO +18% win prob(:12) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough up the middle to CAR 44 for 4 yards (22-L.Ransom). NO-6-T.Shough was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-22-L.Ransom, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 44.
  2. Q4 · 2:33NO +17% win prob(2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q4 · 0:06NO +16% win prob(:06) 39-C.Smyth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. Penalty on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Offside, declined.
  4. Q2 · 1:18NO +14% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 4-T.McMillan to NO 21 for 21 yards (1-A.Taylor; 4-K.McKinstry).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 6:46CAR Touchdown

    (6:46) 5-R.Dowdle up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — NO 0
  2. Q2 · 3:38NO Touchdown

    (3:38) 66-W.Sherman reported in as eligible. 24-D.Neal right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 7 — NO 7
  3. Q2 · 0:25CAR Field goal

    (:25) 10-R.Fitzgerald 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    Score after this play: CAR 10 — NO 7
  4. Q3 · 10:00CAR Touchdown

    (10:00) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — NO 7
  5. Q3 · 2:00NO Field goal

    (2:00) 39-C.Smyth 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — NO 10
  6. Q4 · 2:33NO Touchdown

    (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — NO 17
  7. Q4 · 0:06NO Field goal

    (:06) 39-C.Smyth 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. Penalty on CAR-26-C.Smith-Wade, Defensive Offside, declined.

    Score after this play: CAR 17 — NO 20

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersSaints
Offensive plays5661
Total yards281338 (edge)
Yards per play5.05.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.11 (edge)0.11
Success rate38%51% (edge)
Dropback rate55%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.34 (edge)0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.18-0.17 (edge)
Third downs7/146/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)8 (edge)2
First downs gained on snaps1421 (edge)
Sacks taken1 (edge)5
Turnovers10 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Tyler ShoughQB

24/32, 272 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

8.6 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

15/24, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.7 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CAR

Bryce YoungQB

7 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Rico DowdleRB

16 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Chris OlaveWR

6/9 for 85 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Devaughn VeleWR

5/6 for 69 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 9.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1NONO 28541:03Punt
2CARCAR 2614747:18Touchdown +7
3NONO 348223:54Punt
4CARCAR 127272:51Punt
5NONO 5189511:22Touchdown +7
6CARCAR 2710513:11Field goal +3
7NONO 28200:21End of half
8CARCAR 3010805:06Touchdown +7
9NONO 2815457:58Field goal +3
10CARCAR 3312376:00Turnover on downs
11NONO 359424:03Turnover on downs
12CARCAR 23492:16Punt
13NONO 228832:08Touchdown +7
14CARCAR 298141:32Punt
15NONO 98470:55Field goal +3
16CARCAR 352-110:02Fumble

7 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 95 scrimmage yards over 18 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bryce Young15/241631017.7

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Bryce Young7497.002.5
Rico Dowdle16493.110.7
Chuba Hubbard8293.60-4.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jalen Coker4460120%6.8
Xavier Legette2339015%2.9
Tetairoa McMillan2425020%1.3
Tommy Tremble2413020%-0.5
Chuba Hubbard11905%1.7
Jimmy Horn Jr.11705%-0.3
Rico Dowdle11505%0.0
Ja'Tavion Sanders225010%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Nick Scott640.000
Jaycee Horn610.002
Bobby Brown III330.500
Mike Jackson510.001
Chau Smith-Wade330.000
Christian Rozeboom331.000
Tre'von Moehrig320.000
A'Shawn Robinson130.000
Derrick Brown130.000
D.J. Wonnum222.000

New Orleans Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Tyler Shough24/322721058.6
Spencer Rattler0/100000.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Tyler Shough8324.004.5
Devin Neal7284.01-0.4
Evan Hull4123.00-3.4
Audric Estimé3113.70-0.2
Taysom Hill221.00-0.8
Mason Tipton1-4-4.00-2.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Chris Olave6985129%3.9
Devaughn Vele5669019%9.0
Audric Estimé3339010%1.2
Kevin Austin Jr.3533016%0.5
Juwan Johnson4430013%3.2
Jack Stoll11703%0.3
Mason Tipton12506%-0.6
Devin Neal11403%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Jonas Sanker330.000
Chase Young421.000
Jonathan Bullard240.000
Demario Davis410.000
Jordan Howden320.000
Kool-Aid McKinstry310.000
Pete Werner300.000
Jonah Williams120.000
Cameron Jordan300.000
Quincy Riley210.002

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Closing total
41.5
CAR moneyline
-148
NO moneyline
+124

Panthers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 37 — under by 4.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Alex Moore
Rest
CAR 14 days · NO 7 days
Coaches
Dave Canales vs Kellen Moore

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.