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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Soldier Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q1 14:02, 4th and 9 — 7.6 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chicago Bears 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:02, Bears +7.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:02 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Bears
(14:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones. ** Injury Update: CHI-33-J.Jones has returned to the game. Cleveland challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
7.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 23% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.47 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bears won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Browns at 3 chunk plays.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
(14:02) 19-T.Taylor punts 45 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-S.Daly, downed by CHI-33-J.Jones. ** Injury Update: CHI-33-J.Jones has returned to the game. Cleveland challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. Th
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
D'Andre Swift's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 7:39 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Brownscategory by categoryBears
Bears ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 56 snaps at a 75% dropback rate against Bears’s 63 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Browns 1, Bears 5.
Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.47.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
2 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CHI's sack or hit rate, 35.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 5.3 points clear of the next team along.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points. · +2.8σ from their own normal
CLE's early-down pass rate, 70.7%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.4 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 10 pts
Over Expected room →Browns0.9 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 56 snaps
Bears-11.2 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -3.9 pts, and they swing ±4.1 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 63 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 24% to 88%
Tendencies room →Browns70.7%leaned — passed early · +14.6 vs their 56.1%, and they swing ±12.4 week to week (+1.18× that swing) · 41 early downs
Bears41.7%leaned — ran early · −12.9 vs their 54.5%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 48 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 56%
Tendencies room →Browns11.9%leaned — dropped back clean · −11.5 vs their 23.4%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.39× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bears40.6%inside their normal wobble · +9.0 vs their 31.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+0.96× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -35% to 102%
Fourth Down room →Browns—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 33.2%.
Bears66.7%leaned — went for it · +21.9 vs their 44.8%, and they swing ±19.2 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 3 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 1% to 58%
Tendencies room →Browns43.8%leaned — sent pressure · +14.6 vs their 29.1%, and they swing ±10.5 week to week (+1.39× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears26.2%right on their number · −3.7 vs their 29.9%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (−0.33× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -8% to 41%
Tendencies room →Browns18.8%right on their number · −0.4 vs their 19.1%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Bears35.7%off script — got home · +22.7 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+2.83× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
CHI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 35.7%, 22.7 points above their season mean of 13.0% and 2.8 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Chicago Bears
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · CHI
17/28, 242 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
3.3 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected
Passing · CLE
18/35, 177 yds, 0 TD, 3 INT
-22.9 expected points added · -4.6% completion over expected
Receiving · CHI
6/7 for 84 yds, 0 TD
26% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
DJ Moore banked 10.0 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ MooreWR · Featured Receiver | 22.9 | +10.0 | 88% | 91% | 19% | 38% | 4/5, 69 yd, 2 TD |
| D'Andre SwiftRB · Committee Back | 22.6 | +9.2 | 56% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 18 car, 98 yd, 2 TD · 1/1, -2 yd |
| Caleb WilliamsQB · Starter QB | 19.0 | +5.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 17/28, 242 yd, 2 TD · 3 car, 13 yd |
| Luther Burden IIIWR · Alpha Receiver | 14.4 | +4.2 | 39% | 50% | 26% | 18% | 6/7, 84 yd |
| Harold Fannin Jr.TE · Alpha Receiver | 12.0 | −8.0 | 96% | 95% | 45% | 31% | 1 car, 2 yd · 7/14, 48 yd |
| Isaiah BondWR · Rotational Receiver | 10.9 | +5.7 | 68% | 71% | 13% | 39% | 2/4, 89 yd |
| Colston LovelandTE · Featured Receiver | 10.1 | +0.3 | 65% | 63% | 19% | 22% | 1 car, -2 yd · 4/5, 63 yd |
| Cole KmetTE · Rotational Receiver | 4.8 | −1.8 | 73% | 56% | 15% | 13% | 2/4, 28 yd |
| Quinshon JudkinsRB · Bell Cow Back | 4.7 | −6.1 | 67% | 55% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 21 yd · 3/4, -4 yd |
| Jerry JeudyWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.2 | −1.1 | 96% | 95% | 13% | 20% | 2/4, 22 yd |
| Shedeur SandersQB · Starter QB | 3.5 | −8.1 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 18/35, 177 yd, 3 INT · 2 car, 24 yd |
| Kyle MonangaiRB · Committee Back | 3.3 | −8.3 | 42% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 11 car, 33 yd · 0/2, 0 yd |
| Trayveon WilliamsRB | 2.7 | −0.2 | 33% | 40% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 3 yd · 2/2, 4 yd |
| Malachi CorleyWR · Rotational Receiver | 2.0 | +0.9 | 26% | 19% | 3% | 1% | 1/1, 10 yd |
| Gage LarvadainWR · Rotational Receiver | 1.8 | −0.4 | 54% | 62% | 6% | 6% | 1/2, 8 yd |
| Brittain BrownRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
| Durham SmytheTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 38% | 31% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Devin DuvernayWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 15% | 19% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Olamide ZaccheausWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −4.4 | 82% | 78% | 11% | 15% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Brenden BatesTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 25% | 17% | 0% | — | No touches. |
1 player played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:14) (Shotgun) 10-Q.Judkins left end to CLE 7 for 4 yards (26-N.Wright; 22-E.Hicks).
Q1 12:14 · Browns · 3rd & 8 at CLE 3 · gained 4 · -0.53 EP · −8.2% win probability
156 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 165 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 160. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Browns0
Bears6Browns0Bears7Browns0Bears13Browns0Bears14Browns3Bears14Browns3Bears20Browns3Bears21Browns3Bears27Browns3Bears28Browns3Bears31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Browns at Bears, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 18/35 | 177 | 0 | 3 | 5 | −22.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 12 | 21 | 1.8 | 0 | −4.9 |
| Trayveon Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Bond | 2 | 4 | 89 | 0 | 13% | +5.0 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 7 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 45% | −11.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Schwesinger | 4 | 10 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohamoud Diabate | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hickman Jr. | 3 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyson Campbell |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 17/28 | 242 | 2 | 0 | 3 | +3.3 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_CLE_CHI
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Bears closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 38.5; the game landed 34 — under by 4.5.
Conditions and crew
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 | 13% | −2.2 |
| Malachi Corley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 3% | +1.8 |
| Gage Larvadain | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Trayveon Williams | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6% | −0.4 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 3 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 13% | −2.7 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Myles Harden | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Alex Wright | 1 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Myles Garrett | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerome Baker | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mason Graham | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sam Webb | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 |
| 98 |
| 5.4 |
| 2 |
| +3.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 | −2.6 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Colston Loveland | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −0.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 | 26% | +2.9 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 5 | 69 | 2 | 19% | +5.8 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 19% | +5.7 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 | 15% | +0.5 |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7% | −2.1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11% | −1.6 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 4% | −1.0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Edwards | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D'Marco Jackson | 2 | 5 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Jaquan Brisker | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| C.J. Gardner-Johnson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Austin Booker | 3 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grady Jarrett | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nahshon Wright | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Williams | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elijah Hicks | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Byard | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
