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Los Angeles Rams 41, Lions 34 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:24, 2nd and 10, on Aidan Hutchinson — 22.8 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:24 · 2nd and 10
Aidan Hutchinson
Lions
(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
Dome
Rams closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 41–34. Biggest swing: Q1 8:24, Lions +22.8% win probability on one snap.
22.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jameson WilliamsLionsQ2 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 1-J.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
15.0pts
Colby ParkinsonRamsQ3 2:32(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
13.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 59% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 35% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Lions at 7 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 14 on third down, against Rams at 2 of 9 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Lions173 of 185 plays carry both curves
Q1 · 8:24Lions 0 — Rams 0LA ball · 2nd & 10LA 81%
Lions 19%Rams 81%
(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
Swing −22.8 for RamsExpected points −9.49 for RamsThe model had Lions 10 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:24DET +23% win prob(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
2nd · 0:36LA +15% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 1-J.Williams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-B.Fiske].
3rd · 2:32LA +14% win prob(2:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 84-C.Parkinson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 6:19LA +11% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:18LA +10% win prob(:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at DET 19 for 37 yards (29-A.Maddox).
2nd · 11:20LA +10% win prob(11:20) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 12-P.Nacua pushed ob at DET 14 for 36 yards (4-D.Reed).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Colby Parkinson's 26-yard touchdown catch with 2:32 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:12Amon-Ra St. Brown·17-yd TD catch17-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+77–0
Rams ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.20Rams: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Lions: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.18Rams: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Lions: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.22Rams: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 62 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Rams’s 69 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Rams 8.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs 0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's blitz rate sent turned over: 45.5% in week 14 against 14.6% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +3.3 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.37× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Rams19.0%
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 17.9%, and they swing ±8.8 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
NoteDET's blitz rate sent was the night's one real departure: 14.6%, 17.2 points below their season mean of 31.8% and 1.5 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Tate RatledgeG · Every snap100%64 snaps
60Graham GlasgowC · Every snap100%64 snaps
58Penei SewellT · Every snap100%64 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%64 snaps
14Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · Full-time95%61 snaps
1Jameson WilliamsWR · Full-time91%58 snaps
0Jahmyr GibbsRB · Full-time81%52 snaps
57Trystan ColonC · Full-time80%51 snaps
18Isaac TeSlaaWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
84Shane ZylstraTE · Heavy rotation58%37 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Rotational34%22 snaps
5David MontgomeryRB · Rotational28%18 snaps
71Miles FrazierG · Situational20%13 snaps
88Giovanni RicciTE · Situational19%12 snaps
11Kalif RaymondWR · Situational17%11 snaps
70Dan SkipperT · Situational14%9 snaps
Inactive · 7
Nick WhitesideCBTyler LacyDEMekhi WingoDTKerby JosephFSKayode AwosikaGThomas HarperSSDominic LovettWR
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−27% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:24) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 84-C.Parkinson INTERCEPTED by 97-A.Hutchinson at DET 25. 97-A.Hutchinson to LA 17 for 58 yards (84-C.Parkinson).
Q1 8:24 · Rams · 2nd & 10 at DET 20 · gained nothing · -9.49 EP · −26.6% win probability
171 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 185 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 180. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 88 yards from the LA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
185 of 185 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
185
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
50%
Yards
915
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR43+0.4642%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0871%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.3094%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1163%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.2040%
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5-0.10100%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
185 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
185 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
No good9 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Rams 25
How the play was built
A screen, a man in motion.
A designed throw, the target set before the snap, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Lions 20
Lions6Rams0
Lions7Rams0
Touchdown2 plays
Lions7Rams6
Lions7Rams7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Lions 4
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Rams 34
2nd quarter49 plays
Lions10Rams7
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Rams 6
Lions10Rams13
Lions10Rams14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 31 to the Lions 1
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.3 seconds
Lions16Rams14
Lions17Rams14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Rams 8
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Rams 45
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Lions23Rams14
Lions24Rams14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Rams 31
Lions24Rams17
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Lions 19
3rd quarter39 plays
Lions24Rams20
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Lions 18
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Lions 40
How the play was built
Play action, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Lions24Rams26
Lions24Rams27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Lions 26
Punt5 plays
Lions24Rams33
Lions24Rams34
Touchdown3 plays, from midfield to the Lions 11
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 37 to the Lions 38
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 27
Lions27Rams34
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Rams 26
Lions27Rams40
Lions27Rams41
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Lions 11
Lions33Rams41
Lions34Rams41
Touchdown16 plays, from the Lions 35 to the Rams 1
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 35 to the Lions 47
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
