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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High

Green Bay Packers

26

Denver BroncosWinner

34

GB -1.5 upsetO 42.5 ✓

Denver Broncos 34–26. Biggest swing: Q3 0:06, DEN +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DEN ↑GB ↓
Q3 · 0:06GB 23 — DEN 27DEN ball · 2nd & 15GB 50%

(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 0:06DEN +16% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q4 · 9:03DEN +15% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
  3. Q4 · 12:26DEN +15% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
  4. Q2 · 8:26DEN +14% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 83-M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 7:06GB Field goal

    (7:06) 17-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 3 — DEN 0
  2. Q2 · 14:14GB Field goal

    (14:14) 17-B.McManus 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 6 — DEN 0
  3. Q2 · 8:26DEN Touchdown

    (8:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 83-M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 6 — DEN 7
  4. Q2 · 4:35GB Touchdown

    (4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-50-Z.Tom was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — DEN 7
  5. Q2 · 2:00DEN Touchdown

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 17-L.Humphrey for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 13 — DEN 14
  6. Q2 · 0:05GB Field goal

    (:05) 17-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 16 — DEN 14
  7. Q3 · 14:07GB Touchdown

    (14:07) 8-J.Jacobs left tackle for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 23 — DEN 14
  8. Q3 · 9:12DEN Touchdown

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right to 14-C.Sutton for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 23 — DEN 21
  9. Q3 · 0:06DEN Touchdown

    (:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    Score after this play: GB 23 — DEN 27
  10. Q4 · 10:58GB Field goal

    (10:58) 17-B.McManus 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    Score after this play: GB 26 — DEN 27
  11. Q4 · 7:32DEN Touchdown

    (7:32) 12-R.Harvey right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: GB 26 — DEN 34

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPackersBroncos
Offensive plays6364
Total yards362393 (edge)
Yards per play5.76.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.020.16 (edge)
Success rate41%48% (edge)
Dropback rate73%56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.100.55 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.20 (edge)-0.33
Third downs6/13 (edge)5/11
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)7 (edge)5
First downs gained on snaps1721 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers21 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.02.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DEN

Bo NixQB

23/34, 302 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

20.6 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Jordan LoveQB

24/40, 276 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

-0.5 expected points added · +6.8% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Josh JacobsRB

12 att, 73 yds, 1 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DEN

RJ HarveyRB

19 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

-8.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

Courtland SuttonWR

7/10 for 113 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 8.3 expected points added

Receiving · DEN

Troy FranklinWR

6/6 for 85 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1DENDEN 317223:20Fumble
2GBGB 488224:38Field goal +3
3DENDEN 40562:06Punt
4GBGB 310945:45Field goal +3
5DENDEN 3012705:52Touchdown +7
6GBGB 2511803:50Touchdown +7
7DENDEN 288722:33Touchdown +7
8GBGB 149551:54Field goal +3
9DEN—100:02End of half
10GBGB 295461:01Touchdown +7
11DENDEN 29511:04Punt
12GBGB 19100:09Interception
13DENDEN 298713:39Touchdown +7
14GBGB 328164:16Punt
15DENDEN 3012754:51Touchdown +6
16GBGB 3510464:05Field goal +3
17DENDEN 3511613:28Touchdown +7
18GBGB 34320:56Interception
19DENDEN 48471:32Turnover on downs
20GBGB 45712:31Turnover on downs
21DENGB 46481:21Turnover on downs
22GBGB 38400:23Turnover on downs
23DENGB 33200:44End of game

11 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 94 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Jordan Love24/40276123-0.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Josh Jacobs12736.11-1.7
Jordan Love3299.705.3
Chris Brooks2105.00-0.3
Emanuel Wilson231.50-0.8
Bo Melton100.00-0.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jayden Reed5655017%2.8
Matthew Golden3455011%4.1
Luke Musgrave4652017%3.0
Romeo Doubs233608%0.8
Christian Watson3529014%-2.0
Josh Jacobs231918%3.2
John FitzPatrick3418011%-0.7
Chris Brooks12606%-0.2
Dontayvion Wicks12606%-3.6
Bo Melton01003%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Xavier McKinney710.003
Quay Walker260.000
Edgerrin Cooper710.001
Evan Williams320.000
Keisean Nixon410.000
Colby Wooden120.000
Zayne Anderson120.000
Javon Bullard120.000
Rashan Gary300.000
Karl Brooks110.000

Denver Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Bo Nix23/3430240020.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
RJ Harvey19653.41-8.4
Bo Nix7101.40-0.3
Marvin Mims Jr.188.000.2
Jaleel McLaughlin242.00-1.6
Troy Franklin133.00-0.4
Adam Prentice1-1-1.00-1.5

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Courtland Sutton710113131%8.3
Troy Franklin6685119%9.1
Lil'Jordan Humphrey3442113%5.7
Marvin Mims Jr.4629019%-1.8
Michael Bandy112013%3.2
Evan Engram131209%-0.9
Tyler Badie11103%-1.4
RJ Harvey01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Alex Singleton440.000
Dre Greenlaw530.000
Jonathon Cooper140.500
Pat Surtain II400.011
Riley Moss400.013
Brandon Jones220.000
Jonah Elliss211.000
Talanoa Hufanga300.000
D.J. Jones110.000
Ja'Quan McMillian200.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -1.5
Closing total
42.5
GB moneyline
-122
DEN moneyline
+102

Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 42.5; the game landed 60 — over by 17.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
65°F, wind 3 mph
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
GB 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton