For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
PackersGreen Bay26
BY 8final margin
BroncosDenver34
Green Bay Packers 26 at Denver Broncos 34. Final.
Packers -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Denver Broncos 34, Packers 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 0:06, 2nd and 15, on Troy Franklin — 15.7 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 0:06 · 2nd and 15
Troy Franklin
Broncos
(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 42.5 ✓
Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 34–26. Biggest swing: Q3 0:06, Broncos +15.7% win probability on one snap.
15.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Matthew GoldenPackersQ4 12:26(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
14.8pts
Courtland SuttonBroncosQ4 9:03(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
15.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Packers at +0.10 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Packers at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Broncos won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Packers167 of 180 plays carry both curves
(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +15.7 for BroncosExpected points +3.25 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 10 points higher than the market did.play 126
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 0:06DEN +16% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 11-T.Franklin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 9:03DEN +15% win prob(9:03) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep left to 14-C.Sutton ran ob at GB 15 for 26 yards. Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
4th · 12:26DEN +15% win prob(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
2nd · 8:26DEN +14% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 83-M.Bandy for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:35DEN +12% win prob(4:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 8-J.Jacobs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-50-Z.Tom was injured during the play.
4th · 5:04GB +11% win prob(5:04) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 19-M.Mims (56-E.Cooper).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Troy Franklin's 23-yard touchdown catch with 0:06 left in the 3rd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:06Brandon McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+33–0
2nd14:14Brandon McManus·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+36–0
2nd8:26Michael Bandy·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+76–7
2nd4:35Josh Jacobs·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Jordan Lovefrom Jordan Love+713–7
2nd2:00Lil'Jordan Humphrey·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Bo Nixfrom Bo Nix+713–14
2nd0:05Brandon McManus·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder D.Whelan · snap M.Orzech+316–14
Broncos ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.16Broncos: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Packers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.55Broncos: +0.55 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Packers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.33Broncos: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Broncos’s 64 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Packers 5, Broncos 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
GB's early-down pass rate, 68.1%, is past their previous high of 59.2% in week 10 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
11 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · −7.9 vs their 16.3%, and they swing ±8.2 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Broncos30.4%
inside their normal wobble · +8.0 vs their 22.5%, and they swing ±8.7 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
NoteDEN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 80.0%, 44.3 points above their season mean of 35.7% and 1.6 times their own 27.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Love pass+16% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(12:26) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 0-M.Golden to DEN 18 for 27 yards (29-J.McMillian).
Q4 12:26 · Packers · 3rd & 4 at DEN 45 · gained 27 · +2.96 EP · +16.4% win probability
165 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 175. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 3 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
46%
Yards
753
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.5263%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0774%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0379%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0138%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter32 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Packers 49
Packers3Broncos0
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 48 to the Broncos 33
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 40 to the Broncos 46
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 3 to the Broncos 12
2nd quarter52 plays
Packers6Broncos0
Field goal3 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 8
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.1 seconds
Packers6Broncos6
Packers6Broncos7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Packers 20
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runQuick outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Packers12Broncos7
Packers13Broncos7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 9
Packers13Broncos13
Packers13Broncos14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Packers 5
How the play was built
No huddle, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers16Broncos14
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 14 to the Broncos 16
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne corner, one quarterback, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Packers22Broncos14
Packers23Broncos14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 29 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 30
Intercepted1 play
Packers23Broncos20
Packers23Broncos21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Packers 14
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown out of the scramble drill, from outside the pocket, the ball was not catchable.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept clean
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 32 to the Broncos 47
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the first read, the receiver created it himself.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Packers23Broncos27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Packers 18
4th quarter52 plays
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Packers26Broncos27
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 35 to the Broncos 18
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers26Broncos33
Packers26Broncos34
Touchdown13 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Packers 4
Intercepted3 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 48 to the Packers 45
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Packers 45 to the Broncos 41
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Packers 46 to the Packers 37
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -1.5
Closing total
42.5
Packers moneyline
-122
Broncos moneyline
+102
Packers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 42.5; the game landed 60 — over by 17.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 56°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the east; clear.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Packers 7 days · Broncos 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Sean Payton
4th · 3:59
GB +10% win prob
(3:59) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at DEN 49 for -8 yards (92-D.Tillman).
4th · 6:38GB +10% win prob(6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle intended for 13-D.Wicks INTERCEPTED by 21-R.Moss [99-Z.Allen] at DEN 48. 21-R.Moss to DEN 48 for no gain (13-D.Wicks).
