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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Lumen Field

Indianapolis Colts

16

Seattle SeahawksWinner

18

SEA -13.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓

Seattle Seahawks 18–16 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:22, SEA +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3SEA ↑IND ↓
Q4 · 0:22IND 16 — SEA 18SEA ball · 4th & 2SEA 55%

(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:22SEA +29% win prob(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
  2. Q4 · 0:52SEA +26% win prob(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
  3. Q4 · 0:28SEA +12% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at IND 38 for 8 yards (35-J.Edwards).
  4. Q4 · 5:30SEA +12% win prob(5:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at IND 32 for 39 yards (0-C.Bynum).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 3:44IND Field goal

    (3:44) 10-B.Grupe 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — SEA 0
  2. Q1 · 0:54SEA Field goal

    (:54) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 3 — SEA 3
  3. Q2 · 8:31IND Field goal

    (8:31) 10-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 6 — SEA 3
  4. Q2 · 1:37IND Touchdown

    (1:37) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 2-J.Downs for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: IND 13 — SEA 3
  5. Q2 · 0:05SEA Field goal

    (:05) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — SEA 6
  6. Q3 · 9:53SEA Field goal

    (9:53) 5-J.Myers 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — SEA 9
  7. Q4 · 13:28SEA Field goal

    (13:28) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — SEA 12
  8. Q4 · 2:30SEA Field goal

    (2:30) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 13 — SEA 15
  9. Q4 · 0:52IND Field goal

    (:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

    Score after this play: IND 16 — SEA 15
  10. Q4 · 0:22SEA Field goal

    (:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    Score after this play: IND 16 — SEA 18

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricColtsSeahawks
Offensive plays5856
Total yards220315 (edge)
Yards per play3.85.6 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.10-0.04 (edge)
Success rate36%46% (edge)
Dropback rate48%66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.33
Third downs5/13 (edge)2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)13 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1315 (edge)
Sacks taken11
Turnovers10 (edge)

Seahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.10.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SEA

Sam DarnoldQB

22/36, 271 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

4.6 expected points added · +0.6% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

18/27, 120 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-2.5 expected points added · -0.4% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

25 att, 87 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SEA

Zach CharbonnetRB

8 att, 31 yds, 0 TD

-0.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SEA

Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR

7/9 for 113 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 6.2 expected points added

Receiving · SEA

Rashid ShaheedWR

5/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1INDIND 2810274:00Punt
2SEASEA 10472:03Punt
3INDIND 3511415:17Field goal +3
4SEASEA 387342:50Field goal +3
5INDIND 35551:03Punt
6SEASEA 15401:55Punt
7INDIND 476214:26Field goal +3
8SEASEA 185-52:37Punt
9INDIND 4211584:16Touchdown +7
10SEASEA 2210441:33Field goal +3
11SEASEA 2912435:11Field goal +3
12INDIND 45561:44Punt
13SEASEA 76192:21Punt
14INDIND 246173:10Punt
15SEASEA 208664:10Field goal +3
16INDIND 359195:15Punt
17SEASEA 611825:42Field goal +3
18INDIND 328261:40Field goal +3
19SEASEA 376250:29Field goal +3
20INDIND 30200:14Interception
21SEASEA 42100:04End of game

10 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Seahawks gained 82 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Philip Rivers18/27120111-2.5

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Jonathan Taylor25873.50-1.6
Ameer Abdullah4153.80-0.4
Philip Rivers100.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Ameer Abdullah5532019%-0.2
Michael Pittman3526019%2.5
Tyler Warren3619023%-3.4
Alec Pierce111604%1.7
Jonathan Taylor3414015%-1.1
Josh Downs3513119%-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Germaine Pratt550.000
Zaire Franklin630.000
Camryn Bynum710.000
Nick Cross430.000
Johnathan Edwards410.001
Mekhi Blackmon130.000
JT Tuimoloau210.000
Laiatu Latu301.000
Neville Gallimore200.000
Tyler Goodson200.000

Seattle Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Sam Darnold22/362710014.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Zach Charbonnet8313.90-0.2
Kenneth Walker III9171.90-5.2
Sam Darnold451.30-0.6
Rashid Shaheed1-3-3.00-1.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jaxon Smith-Njigba79113027%6.2
Rashid Shaheed5774021%1.5
Cooper Kupp5746021%-0.2
AJ Barner3627018%1.7
Eric Saubert11903%0.7
Kenneth Walker III11203%-0.5
Zach Charbonnet01003%-1.9
Brady Russell01003%-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Ernest Jones550.000
Nick Emmanwori611.002
Devon Witherspoon420.001
Drake Thomas320.000
Leonard Williams320.000
Jarran Reed320.000
DeMarcus Lawrence400.000
Byron Murphy II130.000
Coby Bryant210.011
Uchenna Nwosu120.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
SEA -13.5
Closing total
41.5
IND moneyline
+650
SEA moneyline
-1000

Seahawks closed -13.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
51°F, wind 9 mph
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
IND 7 days · SEA 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Mike Macdonald