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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Colts.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Colts156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Swing +28.7 for SeahawksExpected points +1.78 for SeahawksThe model had Colts 11 points higher than the market did.play 164
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:22SEA +29% win prob(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 0:52SEA +26% win prob(:52) 10-B.Grupe 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
4th · 0:28SEA +12% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 22-R.Shaheed ran ob at IND 38 for 8 yards (35-J.Edwards).
4th · 5:30SEA +12% win prob(5:30) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba ran ob at IND 32 for 39 yards (0-C.Bynum).
4th · 0:42SEA +11% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 22-R.Shaheed to IND 46 for 17 yards (35-J.Edwards).
4th · 2:30SEA +11% win prob(2:30) 5-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
4th · 0:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jason Myers's 56-yard field goal with 0:22 left in the 4th put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st3:44Blake Grupe·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st0:54Jason Myers·47-yd field goal47-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+33–3
2nd8:31Blake Grupe·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+36–3
2nd1:37Josh Downs·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+713–3
2nd0:05Jason Myers·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–6
3rd9:53Jason Myers·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–9
4th13:28Jason Myers·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–12
4th2:30Jason Myers·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.Stoll+313–15
4th0:52Blake Grupe·60-yd field goal60-yard field goalholder R.Sanchez · snap L.Rhodes+316–15
4th0:22Jason Myers·56-yd field goal56-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap C.StollLead never changed again+316–18
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categorySeahawks
Colts2–6Seahawks
220Total yards315
3.8Yards per play5.6
36%Success rate46%
38%Third-down rate17%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
1Explosive plays3
13First downs15
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Colts, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Colts: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.04Seahawks: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
+0.11Seahawks: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Colts: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.33Seahawks: −0.33 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 58 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 56 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Colts 1, Seahawks 2.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
IND's play-action rate, 7.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 20.0% in week 5.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.1 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.4 pts in week 13.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
IND's early-down pass rate, 35.6%, is past their previous low of 44.2% in week 1 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 14.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.8 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
SEA's early-down pass rate, 62.8%, is past their previous high of 56.8% in week 5 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.7%, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (+0.11× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Seahawks14.3%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
NoteIND's play-action rate was the night's one real departure: 7.1%, 21.0 points below their season mean of 28.1% and 2.1 times their own 9.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Jason Myers+34% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:22) 5-J.Myers 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
Q4 0:22 · Seahawks · 4th & 2 at IND 38 · gained nothing · +1.78 EP · +33.6% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 154 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 163. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 82 yards from the SEA 6 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
45%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1561%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2267%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1325%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2550%
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.180%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.24100%
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Seahawks 45
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 10 to the Seahawks 17
Colts3Seahawks0
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Seahawks 21
Colts3Seahawks3
Field goal7 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Colts 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 38
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 17
Colts6Seahawks3
Field goal10 plays, from the Colts 47 to the Seahawks 32
Punt6 plays
Colts12Seahawks3
Colts13Seahawks3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 42 to the Seahawks 8
Colts13Seahawks6
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Colts 34
3rd quarter35 plays
Colts13Seahawks9
Field goal12 plays, from the Seahawks 29 to the Colts 28
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Seahawks 49
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 7 to the Seahawks 26
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 24 to the Colts 41
How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Colts 46
4th quarter46 plays
Colts13Seahawks12
Field goal4 plays, from the Colts 17 to the Colts 14
Punt10 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Seahawks 39
How the play was built
Play action, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, from outside the pocket.
FormationUnder centerOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runDeep outCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Colts13Seahawks15
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 6 to the Colts 12
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Colts16Seahawks15
Field goal11 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Seahawks 42
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCurlCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Colts16Seahawks18
Field goal6 plays, from the Seahawks 37 to the Colts 38
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -13.5
Closing total
41.5
Colts moneyline
+650
Seahawks moneyline
-1000
Seahawks closed -13.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 34 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lumen Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Cool, 52°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Colts 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Shane Steichen vs Mike Macdonald
IND +10% win prob
(:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle intended for 11-M.Pittman INTERCEPTED by 8-C.Bryant (21-D.Witherspoon) at SEA 42. 8-C.Bryant to SEA 42 for no gain.
