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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles16
BY 3final margin
ChiefsKansas City13
Los Angeles Chargers 16 at Kansas City Chiefs 13. Final.
Chiefs -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Los Angeles Chargers 16, Chiefs 13 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:20, 2nd and 15, on Derwin James — 26.2 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:20 · 2nd and 15
Derwin James
Chargers
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
U 41.5 ✓
16°F
Chiefs closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Los Angeles Chargers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, Chargers +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Tyquan ThorntonChiefsQ4 13:46(13:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [52-K.Mack]. KC-80-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.
15.3pts
Daiyan HenleyChargersQ4 12:47(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 29-K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LAC 1. 0-D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (29-K.Hunt).
11.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Chiefs owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Chargers at 5 of 14 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 2 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chiefs at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Chargers155 of 164 plays carry both curves
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
Swing −26.2 for ChiefsExpected points −1.77 for ChiefsThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 162
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:20LAC +26% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
4th · 13:46KC +15% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [52-K.Mack]. KC-80-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.
4th · 12:47LAC +11% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 29-K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LAC 1. 0-D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (29-K.Hunt).
3rd8:58Cameron Dicker·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.Harris+313–13
3rd0:57Cameron Dicker·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+316–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryChiefs
Chargers5–3Chiefs
296Total yards239
4.9Yards per play4.1
48%Success rate42%
36%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays4
15First downs16
4Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Chargers: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.11Chiefs: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Chargers: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.06Chiefs: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Chargers: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.21Chiefs: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 61 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 59 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 2, Chiefs 3.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
KC's blitz rate sent, 57.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 3.7 points clear of the next team along.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.8 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
KC's sack or hit rate, 30.3%, is past their previous high of 25.7% in week 14 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
33 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+1.00× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Chiefs30.3%
off script — got home · +13.2 vs their 17.1%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+2.30× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
NoteKC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 30.3%, 13.2 points above their season mean of 17.1% and 2.3 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Minshew pass−22% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
Q4 0:20 · Chiefs · 2nd & 15 at LAC 39 · gained nothing · -1.77 EP · −21.8% win probability
153 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 153 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 159. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 68 yards from the KC 32 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
47%
Yards
534
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1174%
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.1189%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.0859%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR12-0.0725%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR8+0.4113%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0043%
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR5-0.340%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Chargers0Chiefs6
Chargers0Chiefs7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chargers 8
Chargers3Chiefs7
Field goal13 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chiefs 30
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 32 to the Chiefs 36
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 21
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Chargers 27
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 39
Intercepted3 plays
Chargers3Chiefs10
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Chargers 8
Punt12 plays, from the Chargers 24 to the Chiefs 43
Chargers3Chiefs13
Field goal12 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Chargers 29
Chargers9Chiefs13
Chargers10Chiefs13
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 16
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Chargers13Chiefs13
Field goal14 plays, from the Chargers 29 to the Chiefs 4
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 47
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 12 to the Chiefs 19
Chargers16Chiefs13
Field goal5 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Chiefs 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 34 to the Chiefs 36
4th quarter38 plays
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, five linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Chargers 15
Punt13 plays, from the Chargers 1 to the Chiefs 44
How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read, it should have been intercepted, caught in traffic.
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne quarterback, one back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted16 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Chargers 34
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -5.5
Closing total
41.5
Chargers moneyline
+210
Chiefs moneyline
-258
Chiefs closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Bitter, 16°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the west; partly cloudy.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Chargers 6 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 2:00LAC +9% win prob(2:00) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right [91-D.Hand]. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play. PENALTY on KC-72-C.Godrick, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 46 - No Play.
4th · 1:18LAC +9% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass short left to 4-R.Rice to LAC 42 for 3 yards (31-M.Williams).
