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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

16

Kansas City Chiefs

13

KC -5.5 upsetU 41.5 ✓

Los Angeles Chargers 16–13 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:20, LAC +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCLAC
Q4 · 0:20LAC 16KC 13KC ball · 2nd & 15LAC 68%

(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q4 · 0:20LAC +26% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass deep left intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 3-D.James at LAC 18. 3-D.James to LAC 18 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).
  2. Q4 · 13:46KC +15% win prob(13:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 80-T.Thornton to LAC 30 for 21 yards (23-T.Jefferson) [52-K.Mack]. KC-80-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LAC-23-T.Jefferson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 30.
  3. Q4 · 12:47LAC +11% win prob(12:47) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right intended for 29-K.Hunt INTERCEPTED by 0-D.Henley at LAC 1. 0-D.Henley to LAC 1 for no gain (29-K.Hunt).
  4. Q4 · 0:27LAC +11% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) 17-G.Minshew pass incomplete short right.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:59KC Touchdown

    (8:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 0KC 7
  2. Q1 · 2:35LAC Field goal

    (2:35) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 3KC 7
  3. Q2 · 8:07KC Field goal

    (8:07) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 3KC 10
  4. Q2 · 0:42KC Field goal

    (:42) 7-H.Butker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

    Score after this play: LAC 3KC 13
  5. Q2 · 0:11LAC Touchdown

    (:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 84-K.Lambert-Smith for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: LAC 10KC 13
  6. Q3 · 8:58LAC Field goal

    (8:58) 11-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. ** Injury Update: KC-38-K.Knowles has returned to the game.

    Score after this play: LAC 13KC 13
  7. Q3 · 0:57LAC Field goal

    (:57) 11-C.Dicker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

    Score after this play: LAC 16KC 13

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricChargersChiefs
Offensive plays6159
Total yards296 (edge)239
Yards per play4.9 (edge)4.1
Expected points added / play-0.05 (edge)-0.11
Success rate48% (edge)42%
Dropback rate54%68%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.01 (edge)-0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.21
Third downs5/147/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)34 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1516 (edge)
Sacks taken4 (edge)5
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

19/29, 210 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

0.4 expected points added · +5.9% completion over expected

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

16/28, 189 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-3.6 expected points added · -5.3% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Omarion HamptonRB

15 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · LAC

Kimani VidalRB

12 att, 33 yds, 0 TD

-2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

7/9 for 70 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 3.9 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Oronde Gadsden IITE

4/5 for 61 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 3213536:08Touchdown +7
2LACLAC 2912366:22Field goal +3
3KCKC 32521:38Punt
4LACLAC 95112:20Punt
5KCKC 36411:38Punt
6LACLAC 213-10:55Interception
7KCLAC 197102:55Field goal +3
8LACLAC 2410225:14Punt
9KCKC 610602:12Field goal +3
10LACLAC 407600:33Touchdown +7
11KC100:05End of half
12LACLAC 2912716:05Field goal +3
13KCKC 295-111:02Punt
14LACLAC 326132:58Punt
15KCKC 12471:24Punt
16LACLAC 405292:40Field goal +3
17KCKC 3410493:10Interception
18LACLAC 113557:21Punt
19KCKC 812685:06Interception
20LACLAC 18100:14End of game

7 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 71 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a field goal.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Justin Herbert19/292101140.4

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Omarion Hampton15614.100.5
Kimani Vidal12332.80-2.5
Justin Herbert200.00-1.2

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Oronde Gadsden II4561019%5.2
Tre Harris3549019%0.4
Keenan Allen5736027%1.3
Ladd McConkey2320012%-3.0
KeAndre Lambert-Smith111614%4.2
Kimani Vidal111504%1.3
Scott Matlock22908%0.2
Omarion Hampton11404%0.0
Trevor Penning01004%-1.0

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Derwin James280.012
Denzel Perryman350.000
Tony Jefferson320.001
Benjamin St-Juste220.000
Marcus Williams220.000
Odafe Oweh402.000
Daiyan Henley130.011
Tuli Tuipulotu302.000
Da'Shawn Hand210.000
Khalil Mack121.000

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Patrick Mahomes16/28189015-3.6
Gardner Minshew3/522010-1.1

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isiah Pacheco11211.90-5.1
Patrick Mahomes2157.512.3
Kareem Hunt6122.000.3
Brashard Smith210.500.8

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Kelce7970030%3.9
Rashee Rice71151037%-0.6
Tyquan Thornton2347010%4.3
Xavier Worthy2435013%0.1
Kareem Hunt12807%-2.5
JuJu Smith-Schuster01003%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Drue Tranquill860.000
Nick Bolton560.000
Bryan Cook520.001
Chamarri Conner410.000
Jaylen Watson311.000
Nohl Williams310.000
Charles Omenihu121.500
Leo Chenal030.500
Kevin Knowles210.001
George Karlaftis210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -5.5
Closing total
41.5
LAC moneyline
+210
KC moneyline
-258

Chiefs closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 29 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
LAC 6 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
Jim Harbaugh vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.