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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
RaidersLas Vegas0
BY 31final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia31
Las Vegas Raiders 0 at Philadelphia Eagles 31. Final.
Eagles -12.5 ✓U 37.5 ✓
The verdict · 2025 Week 15
Philadelphia Eagles 31, Raiders 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:32, 3rd and 3, on Jalen Hurts — 4.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:32 · 3rd and 3
Jalen Hurts
Eagles
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
27°F
Eagles closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Philadelphia Eagles 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:32, Eagles +4.3% win probability on one snap.
4.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Saquon BarkleyEaglesQ1 13:27(13:27) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to LV 34 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler).
3.2pts
Jake ElliottRaidersQ2 12:53(12:53) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
3.0pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.96 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.41 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Raiders131 of 135 plays carry both curves
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Swing +4.3 for EaglesExpected points +2.15 for EaglesThe model had Raiders 29 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:32PHI +4% win prob(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
1st · 13:27PHI +3% win prob(13:27) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to LV 34 for 6 yards (69-A.Butler).
2nd · 12:53LV +3% win prob(12:53) 4-J.Elliott 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
1st · 14:54LV +3% win prob(14:54) 26-S.Barkley right end to PHI 34 for 1 yard (49-C.Snowden; 45-D.White).
2nd · 11:59LV +3% win prob(11:59) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to PHI 25, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.
1st · 6:07LV +2% win prob(6:07) (Shotgun) 15-K.Pickett pass short right to 89-B.Bowers to LV 36 for -1 yards (17-N.Dean).
1st · 3:36
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dallas Goedert's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:55 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.96 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.41Raiders: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.25Eagles: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.53Raiders: −0.53 expected points added per play
+0.96Eagles: +0.96 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Raiders: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.11Eagles: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 42 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Eagles’s 66 at 33%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 0, Eagles 6.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PHI's early-down pass rate, 26.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 8.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 41.5% in week 2.
2.0 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 14.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
PHI's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 23.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.0 times their own weekly swing above their number.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
LV's play-action rate turned over: 5.4% in week 14 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Eagles30.0%
off script — got home · +13.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
NotePHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 25.9 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
76Caleb RogersG · Every snap100%42 snaps
15Kenny PickettQB · Every snap100%42 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%42 snaps
—Delmar GlazeT · Every snap100%42 snaps
66Dylan ParhamG · Every snap100%42 snaps
70Stone ForsytheT · Every snap100%42 snaps
1Tre TuckerWR · Full-time93%39 snaps
89Brock BowersTE · Full-time90%38 snaps
18Jack BechWR · Full-time81%34 snaps
17Tyler LockettWR · Heavy rotation76%32 snaps
2Ashton JeantyRB · Heavy rotation71%30 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Situational24%10 snaps
87Michael MayerTE · Situational19%8 snaps
10Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR · Situational19%8 snaps
60Charles GrantT · Situational12%5 snaps
4Shedrick JacksonWR · Situational10%4 snaps
23Dylan LaubeRB · Situational5%2 snaps
Inactive · 7
Jordan MeredithCGreedy VanceCBLeki FotuDTGeno SmithQBZamir WhiteRBIan ThomasTEAlex BachmanWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Will PutnamCAtonio MafiGAidan O'ConnellQBDJ GlazeT
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
74Fred JohnsonT · Every snap100%69 snaps
56Tyler SteenG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Jordan MailataT · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
69Landon DickersonG · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
1Jalen HurtsQB · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
51Cam JurgensC · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation74%51 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Heavy rotation72%50 snaps
26Saquon BarkleyRB · Heavy rotation57%39 snaps
81Grant CalcaterraTE · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
2Jahan DotsonWR · Heavy rotation54%37 snaps
6DeVonta SmithWR · Heavy rotation52%36 snaps
37Tank BigsbyRB · Rotational39%27 snaps
80Darius CooperWR · Rotational30%21 snaps
36Cameron LatuTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
79Matt PryorT · Rotational28%19 snaps
83Kylen GransonTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
64Brett TothG · Rotational25%17 snaps
16Tanner McKeeQB · Rotational25%17 snaps
66Drew KendallC · Rotational25%17 snaps
28Will ShipleyRB · Situational6%4 snaps
18Britain CoveyWR · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mac McWilliamsCBJalen CarterDTJoshua UcheOLBSam HowellQBAJ DillonRBLane JohnsonT
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Hurts pass+6% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q1 13:32 · Eagles · 3rd & 3 at PHI 40 · gained nothing · +2.15 EP · +6.5% win probability
129 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 135 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 129 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 79 yards from the PHI 19 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
135 of 135 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
135
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
47%
Yards
462
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.2576%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1335%
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR18-0.176%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3343%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR1——
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
135 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
135 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Raiders0Eagles6
Raiders0Eagles7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Raiders 4
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Eagles 33
The period ended3 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Raiders 23
2nd quarter42 plays
Raiders0Eagles10
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 16 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 31 to the Raiders 34
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 33
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 28 to the Raiders 33
Raiders0Eagles16
Raiders0Eagles17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 30 to the Raiders 2
Punt9 plays, from the Raiders 20 to the Raiders 46
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter30 plays
Intercepted8 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Eagles 35
Raiders0Eagles23
Raiders0Eagles24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Raiders 4
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 32 to the Raiders 33
The period ended5 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Raiders 26
4th quarter29 plays
Raiders0Eagles30
Raiders0Eagles31
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Eagles 19 to the Raiders 1
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 2 to the Raiders 8
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
