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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:27 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · Lincoln Financial Field
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q1 13:32, 3rd and 3, on Jalen Hurts — 4.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Philadelphia Eagles 31–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:32, Eagles +4.3% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:32 · 3rd and 3
Jalen Hurts
Eagles
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
4.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.96 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at -0.53 expected points per dropback.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Eagles won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 26% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles won this one — 10 of 13 on third down, against Raiders at 3 of 12 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.25 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.41 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 9.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Dallas Goedert's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:55 left in the 1st put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Dallas Goedert4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Jalen HurtsLead never changed again+70–75 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Raiderscategory by categoryEagles
Eagles ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.96 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 42 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Eagles’s 66 at 33%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 0, Eagles 6.
Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs -0.41.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
10 of 11 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
PHI's early-down pass rate, 26.9%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 8.6 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.7 points. · −2.0σ from their own normal
PHI's sack or hit rate, 30.0%, is past their previous high of 23.7% in week 2 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
PHI's blitz rate sent, 10.0%, is past their previous low of 17.1% in week 10 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · −1.9σ from their own normal
PHI's pass rate over expected, −15.7 pts, is past their previous low of −11.9 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.9 points. · −1.5σ from their own normal
LV's play-action rate turned over: 5.4% in week 14 against 33.3% here — they dropped back clean then and faked the run now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.5 points. · +0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 22 pts
Over Expected room →Raiders2.5 ptsright on their number · +4.2 vs their -1.6 pts, and they swing ±9.1 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 42 snaps
Eagles-15.7 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −13.3 vs their -2.4 pts, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−1.50× that swing) · 66 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 92%
Tendencies room →Raiders62.1%right on their number · +4.2 vs their 57.9%, and they swing ±13.4 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 29 early downs
Eagles26.9%off script — ran early · −25.9 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±12.7 week to week (−2.04× that swing) · 52 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 48%
Tendencies room →Raiders33.3%inside their normal wobble · +7.7 vs their 25.6%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (+0.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Eagles40.9%leaned — faked the run · +18.6 vs their 22.4%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (+1.98× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -60% to 145%
Fourth Down room →Raiders—Only 0 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 54.5%.
Eagles—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 32.8%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 4% to 48%
Tendencies room →Raiders13.6%leaned — sat back · −8.4 vs their 22.0%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Eagles10.0%leaned — sat back · −16.2 vs their 26.2%, and they swing ±8.5 week to week (−1.91× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -6% to 34%
Tendencies room →Raiders4.5%leaned — stayed blocked · −9.3 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−1.23× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Eagles30.0%off script — got home · +13.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+2.04× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
PHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 26.9%, 25.9 points below their season mean of 52.9% and 2.0 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Las Vegas Raiders
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 4 never used
Inactive · 7
Dressed, never took a snap · 4
Philadelphia Eagles
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · PHI
12/15, 175 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT
12.8 expected points added · +14.6% completion over expected
Passing · LV
15/25, 64 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-16.7 expected points added · -10.1% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land the morning after the game, not live.
Dallas Goedert banked 9.1 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas GoedertTE · Alpha Receiver | 25.0 | +9.1 | 74% | 77% | 39% | 22% | 6/7, 70 yd, 2 TD |
| Jalen HurtsQB · Starter QB | 22.9 | +5.7 | 75% | — | 0% | — | 12/15, 175 yd, 3 TD · 7 car, 39 yd |
| Saquon BarkleyRB · Committee Back | 17.2 | −8.7 | 57% | 59% | 17% | 0% | 22 car, 78 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 14 yd |
| A.J. BrownWR · Rotational Receiver | 12.1 | +7.6 | 72% | 82% | 11% | 26% | 2/2, 41 yd, 1 TD |
| Brock BowersTE · Alpha Receiver | 8.8 | −0.4 | 90% | 100% | 32% | 11% | 6/8, 28 yd |
| Ashton JeantyRB · Bell Cow Back | 8.2 | −3.1 | 71% | 67% | 24% | 4% | 9 car, 35 yd · 4/6, 7 yd |
| DeVonta SmithWR · Rotational Receiver | 7.0 | +3.5 | 52% | 64% | 11% | 33% | 2/2, 50 yd |
| Tank BigsbyRB · Committee Back | 5.7 | −12.7 | 39% | 36% | 6% | 1% | 17 car, 57 yd · 0/1, 0 yd |
| Darius CooperWR · Rotational Receiver | 4.9 | +1.5 | 30% | 27% | 11% | 18% | 2/2, 29 yd |
| Jack BechWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.7 | +0.3 | 81% | 83% | 12% | 35% | 2/3, 17 yd |
| Tyler LockettWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.0 | −1.7 | 76% | 87% | 16% | 25% | 2/4, 10 yd |
| Tanner McKeeQB | 2.2 | +0.3 | 25% | — | 0% | — | 3/3, 33 yd · 1 car, 9 yd |
| Grant CalcaterraTE · Rotational Receiver | 1.4 | 0.0 | 54% | 45% | 6% | 3% | 1/1, 4 yd |
| Kenny PickettQB · Starter QB | 1.3 | −4.0 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/25, 64 yd, 1 INT · 2 car, 7 yd |
| Raheem MostertRB | 1.2 | +0.6 | 24% | 33% | 4% | 1% | 1/1, 2 yd |
| Dylan LaubeRB | 0.4 | −0.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Tre TuckerWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −3.3 | 93% | 100% | 12% | 24% | 0/3, 0 yd |
| Michael MayerTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 19% | 10% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Kylen GransonTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | 26% | 18% | 0% | — | No touches. |
| Britain CoveyWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
| Will ShipleyRB | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 4 snaps — too few to rate. |
3 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 4 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(13:32) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown. PENALTY on LV-22-E.Stokes, Defensive Pass Interference, 20 yards, enforced at PHI 40 - No Play.
Q1 13:32 · Eagles · 3rd & 3 at PHI 40 · gained nothing · +2.15 EP · +6.5% win probability
129 snaps placed · 6 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 135 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 129 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 130. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
5 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 79 yards from the PHI 19 for a turnover on downs. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
135 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
135 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Raiders0
Eagles6Raiders0Eagles7Raiders0Eagles10Raiders0Eagles16Raiders0Eagles17Raiders0Eagles23Raiders0Eagles24Raiders0Eagles30Raiders0Eagles31Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Raiders at Eagles, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/25 | 64 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −16.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 9 | 35 | 3.9 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | +0.2 |
| Dylan Laube |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 6 | 8 | 28 | 0 | 32% | −4.2 |
| Jack Bech | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 | 12% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin White | 9 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Pola-Mao | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Elandon Roberts |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 12/15 | 175 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +12.8 |
| Tanner McKee | 3/3 | 33 | 0 |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_LV_PHI
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Eagles closed -12.5 and covered, winning by 31.
Total closed 37.5; the game landed 31 — under by 6.5.
Conditions and crew
| 2 |
| 4 |
| 2.0 |
| 0 |
| +0.2 |
| −0.5 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16% | −3.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 4 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 24% | −3.2 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4% | −0.5 |
| Tre Tucker | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12% | −1.6 |
| 6 |
| 3 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Tommy Eichenberg | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonah Laulu | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Stokes | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Darien Porter | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Maxx Crosby | 3 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Thomas Booker | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| +3.7 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 1 | −2.9 |
| Tank Bigsby | 17 | 57 | 3.4 | 0 | −5.3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 39 | 5.6 | 0 | +6.1 |
| Tanner McKee | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | +1.9 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 70 | 2 | 39% | +5.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 | 11% | +4.7 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 2 | 41 | 1 | 11% | +5.9 |
| Darius Cooper | 2 | 2 | 29 | 0 | 11% | +2.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 17% | +0.1 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6% | +1.2 |
| Tank Bigsby | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6% | −1.3 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakobe Dean | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Baun | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper DeJean | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adoree' Jackson | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Reed Blankenship | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelee Ringo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Graham | 2 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moro Ojomo | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nolan Smith | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Trotter Jr. | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
