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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · AT&T Stadium

Minnesota VikingsWinner

34

Dallas Cowboys

26

DAL -5.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓Dome

Minnesota Vikings 34–26. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, MIN +14% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3DAL ↑MIN ↓
Q1 · 14:09MIN 0 — DAL 0MIN ball · 2nd & 4DAL 69%

(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 14:09MIN +14% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).
  2. Q4 · 12:24MIN +13% win prob(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
  3. Q3 · 1:14DAL +12% win prob(1:14) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 9:16DAL +10% win prob(9:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 8:26DAL Touchdown

    (8:26) 33-J.Williams right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 0 — DAL 7
  2. Q1 · 2:41MIN Touchdown

    (2:41) 9-J.McCarthy pass deep left to 1-J.Nailor for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-1-J.Nailor was injured during the play. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DAL 7
  3. Q2 · 14:55DAL Touchdown

    (14:55) 43-M.Davis up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 7 — DAL 14
  4. Q2 · 9:34MIN Touchdown

    (9:34) 64-B.Brandel reported in as eligible. 9-J.McCarthy left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 14 — DAL 14
  5. Q2 · 1:52MIN Field goal

    (1:52) 16-W.Reichard 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DAL 14
  6. Q2 · 0:08DAL Field goal

    (:08) 17-B.Aubrey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DAL 17
  7. Q3 · 11:17DAL Field goal

    (11:17) 17-B.Aubrey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DAL 20
  8. Q3 · 4:54DAL Field goal

    (4:54) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: MIN 17 — DAL 23
  9. Q3 · 1:14MIN Touchdown

    (1:14) 30-C.Ham up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 24 — DAL 23
  10. Q4 · 9:16MIN Touchdown

    (9:16) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right to 1-J.Nailor for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: MIN 31 — DAL 23
  11. Q4 · 1:13MIN Field goal

    (1:13) 16-W.Reichard 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

    Score after this play: MIN 34 — DAL 23
  12. Q4 · 0:23DAL Field goal

    (:23) 17-B.Aubrey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    Score after this play: MIN 34 — DAL 26

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricVikingsCowboys
Offensive plays5169
Total yards328423 (edge)
Yards per play6.4 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.23 (edge)0.11
Success rate47% (edge)46%
Dropback rate51%58%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.53 (edge)0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.090.23 (edge)
Third downs2/9 (edge)2/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1824 (edge)
Sacks taken0 (edge)2
Turnovers10 (edge)

Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.11.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Dak PrescottQB

23/38, 294 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.0 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Passing · MIN

J.J. McCarthyQB

15/24, 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

12.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · DAL

Javonte WilliamsRB

15 att, 91 yds, 1 TD

5.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Aaron JonesRB

12 att, 34 yds, 0 TD

-1.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

CeeDee LambWR

6/10 for 111 yds, 0 TD

29% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

T.J. HockensonTE

4/5 for 66 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 3.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MINMIN 32360:58Interception
2DALMIN 3512355:39Touchdown +7
3MINMIN 147183:52Punt
4DALDAL 3481:23Punt
5MINMIN 473380:33Touchdown +7
6DALDAL 278612:43Touchdown +7
7MINMIN 2512805:24Touchdown +7
8DALDAL 439243:37Missed field goal
9MINMIN 418384:03Field goal +3
10DALDAL 4011411:45Field goal +3
11MIN—100:03End of half
12DALDAL 428503:46Field goal +3
13MINMIN 42511:04Punt
14DALDAL 109775:20Field goal +3
15MINMIN 2710703:38Touchdown +7
16DALDAL 359243:52Missed field goal
17MINMIN 496513:08Touchdown +7
18DALDAL 109613:42Turnover on downs
19MINMIN 3910264:22Field goal +3
20DALDAL 356420:49Field goal +3
21MINDAL 45200:19End of game

12 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 80 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
J.J. McCarthy15/2425021012.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Aaron Jones12342.80-1.7
Jordan Mason10292.90-1.2
J.J. McCarthy4153.813.0
C.J. Ham111.010.8
Jalen Nailor1-2-2.00-2.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
T.J. Hockenson4566021%3.2
Jordan Addison226608%6.1
Jalen Nailor3547221%5.4
Aaron Jones3331013%2.7
Justin Jefferson2822033%-6.6
Josh Oliver111804%1.2

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Blake Cashman380.001
Eric Wilson430.000
Josh Metellus430.000
Isaiah Rodgers420.000
Harrison Smith330.002
Dallas Turner240.000
Jalen Redmond230.000
Levi Drake Rodriguez230.000
Byron Murphy310.002
Jonathan Greenard041.000

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Dak Prescott23/382940021.0

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Javonte Williams15916.115.2
Malik Davis8212.610.2
Hunter Luepke3165.30-0.8
Brandon Aubrey166.002.7
Dak Prescott122.00-0.3
KaVontae Turpin122.00-0.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
CeeDee Lamb610111029%5.9
Ryan Flournoy4540014%2.6
George Pickens3633017%0.4
Luke Schoonmaker112903%2.2
Jonathan Mingo112503%1.2
Malik Davis231609%-4.1
Jake Ferguson2416011%-1.0
Hunter Luepke221406%0.3
KaVontae Turpin221006%-0.5
Brevyn Spann-Ford01003%-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
DeMarvion Overshown430.000
Malik Hooker330.000
Shavon Revel Jr.320.000
Markquese Bell220.000
DaRon Bland220.001
Jadeveon Clowney130.000
Donovan Wilson300.001
Caelen Carson120.000
Kenny Clark120.000
Quinnen Williams210.011

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Closing total
47.5
MIN moneyline
+215
DAL moneyline
-265

Cowboys closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 60 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
MIN 7 days · DAL 10 days
Coaches
Kevin O'Connell vs Brian Schottenheimer