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polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Game Center
Game Center
2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · AT&T Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2025 Week 15
It turned at Q1 14:09, 2nd and 4, on Quinnen Williams — 13.5 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:09 · 2nd and 4
Quinnen Williams
Cowboys
(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).
Minnesota Vikings 34–26. Biggest swing: Q1 14:09, Cowboys +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Vikings won this one — +0.53 expected points per dropback, against Cowboys at +0.02 expected points per dropback.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — +0.23 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.09 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Cowboys at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Vikings at 1 giveaway.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
(14:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.McCarthy pass short right intended for 18-J.Jefferson INTERCEPTED by 92-Q.Williams (6-D.Wilson) at MIN 35. 92-Q.Williams to MIN 35 for no gain (84-J.Oliver).
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
C.J. Ham's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:14 left in the 3rd put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Vikingscategory by categoryCowboys
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 51 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 69 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 5, Cowboys 4.
Vikings won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate, 3.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 15 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 15.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 26.3 points.
DAL's pass rate over expected, −8.9 pts, is past their previous low of −4.7 pts in week 12 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
DAL's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 3 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 15.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 10 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.4 points.
MIN's blitz rate sent turned over: 34.4% in week 14 against 52.5% here — they sat back then and sent pressure now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
40 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
12 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 12 pts
Over Expected room →Vikings2.8 ptsinside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their -1.4 pts, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.80× that swing) · 51 snaps
Cowboys-8.9 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −8.0 vs their -0.9 pts, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.66× that swing) · 69 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 26% to 83%
Tendencies room →Vikings51.3%right on their number · −3.3 vs their 54.6%, and they swing ±11.0 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 39 early downs
Cowboys56.6%right on their number · +1.4 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.20× that swing) · 53 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 5% to 47%
Tendencies room →Vikings30.8%inside their normal wobble · +4.8 vs their 26.0%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.58× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Cowboys22.5%inside their normal wobble · −5.0 vs their 27.5%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -41% to 106%
Fourth Down room →Vikings75.0%leaned — went for it · +47.6 vs their 27.4%, and they swing ±26.3 week to week (+1.81× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
Cowboys75.0%leaned — went for it · +22.1 vs their 52.9%, and they swing ±19.4 week to week (+1.14× that swing) · 4 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 77%
Tendencies room →Vikings52.5%right on their number · +0.7 vs their 51.8%, and they swing ±9.0 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys15.4%inside their normal wobble · −11.8 vs their 27.2%, and they swing ±12.1 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -3% to 39%
Tendencies room →Vikings22.5%right on their number · +3.0 vs their 19.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Cowboys3.8%leaned — stayed blocked · −12.6 vs their 16.5%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.65× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 75.0%, 47.6 points above their season mean of 27.4% and 1.8 times their own 26.3-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Minnesota Vikings
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Who moved the needle
Passing · DAL
23/38, 294 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
1.0 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected
Passing · MIN
15/24, 250 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
12.0 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected
What each man’s workload was worth, against what he actually banked. Final. Usage and expected points land with the weekly sync, not live.
Jalen Nailor banked 6.7 more points than his own workload asked for.
| Player | Full PPR | Vs expected | Snap share | Routes | Targets | Air yards | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthyQB · Starter QB | 23.5 | −2.4 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 15/24, 250 yd, 2 TD, 1 INT · 4 car, 15 yd, 1 TD |
| Jalen NailorWR · Featured Receiver | 19.5 | +6.7 | 51% | 58% | 21% | 28% | 1 car, -2 yd · 3/5, 47 yd, 2 TD |
| CeeDee LambWR · Alpha Receiver | 17.1 | −4.1 | 86% | 98% | 29% | 38% | 6/10, 111 yd |
| Javonte WilliamsRB · Committee Back | 15.1 | +1.5 | 29% | 13% | 0% | — | 15 car, 91 yd, 1 TD |
| Dak PrescottQB · Starter QB | 12.0 | −7.2 | 100% | — | 0% | — | 23/38, 294 yd · 1 car, 2 yd |
| Malik DavisRB | 11.7 | −1.8 | 53% | 63% | 9% | 5% | 8 car, 21 yd, 1 TD · 2/3, 16 yd |
| T.J. HockensonTE · Featured Receiver | 10.6 | −1.0 | 80% | 85% | 21% | 23% | 4/5, 66 yd |
| Aaron JonesRB · Committee Back | 9.5 | +0.4 | 58% | 65% | 13% | 0% | 12 car, 34 yd · 3/3, 31 yd |
| Jordan AddisonWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.6 | +5.2 | 64% | 65% | 8% | 19% | 2/2, 66 yd |
| Ryan FlournoyWR · Rotational Receiver | 8.0 | +0.5 | 64% | 68% | 14% | 13% | 4/5, 40 yd |
| George PickensWR · Rotational Receiver | 6.3 | −2.4 | 86% | 93% | 17% | 12% | 3/6, 33 yd |
| C.J. HamRB | 6.1 | +2.6 | 29% | 23% | 0% | — | 1 car, 1 yd, 1 TD |
| Hunter LuepkeRB | 5.0 | +0.2 | 21% | 25% | 6% | 0% | 3 car, 16 yd · 2/2, 14 yd |
| Justin JeffersonWR · Alpha Receiver | 4.2 | −14.6 | 96% | 92% | 33% | 29% | 2/8, 22 yd |
| Luke SchoonmakerTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.9 | +2.7 | 30% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1/1, 29 yd |
| Jake FergusonTE · Rotational Receiver | 3.6 | −3.3 | 71% | 83% | 11% | 12% | 2/4, 16 yd |
| Jonathan MingoWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.5 | +1.6 | — | — | — | — | 7 snaps — too few to rate. |
| KaVontae TurpinWR · Rotational Receiver | 3.2 | −0.9 | 20% | 20% | 6% | 0% | 1 car, 2 yd · 2/2, 10 yd |
| Jordan MasonRB | 2.9 | −2.5 | 36% | 19% | 0% | — | 10 car, 29 yd |
| Josh OliverTE · Rotational Receiver | 2.8 | +1.1 | 62% | 42% | 4% | 3% | 1/1, 18 yd |
| Brevyn Spann-FordTE · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | −1.7 | 30% | 23% | 3% | 3% | 0/1, 0 yd |
| Myles PriceWR · Rotational Receiver | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 snap — too few to rate. |
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(12:24) 17-B.Aubrey 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.
Q4 12:24 · Cowboys · 4th & 8 at MIN 41 · gained nothing · -3.00 EP · −15.4% win probability
159 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 174 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 169. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
12 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 75 yards from the MIN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play movedHow the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Vikings0
Cowboys6Vikings0Cowboys7Vikings6Cowboys7Vikings7Cowboys7Vikings7Cowboys13Vikings7Cowboys14How the play was built
Nobody in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
How the play was built
Two in the backfield, nobody in motion.
Vikings13Cowboys14Vikings14Cowboys14How the play was built
A man in motion.
Thrown on the second read.
Vikings17Cowboys14Vikings17Cowboys17Vikings17Cowboys20Vikings17Cowboys23How the play was built
Empty backfield, nobody in motion.
Thrown on the second read, caught in traffic.
Vikings23Cowboys23Vikings24Cowboys23How the play was built
Empty backfield, a man in motion.
Thrown on the first read.
Vikings30Cowboys23Vikings31Cowboys23Vikings34Cowboys23Vikings34Cowboys26Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Vikings at Cowboys, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 15/24 | 250 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +12.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 | −1.7 |
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 | −1.2 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 | +3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 | 8% | +6.1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 21% | +3.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Cashman | 3 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Josh Metellus | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Wilson | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaiah Rodgers |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/38 | 294 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams |
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2025_15_MIN_DAL
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Cowboys closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 60 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
| C.J. Ham | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | +0.8 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 | −2.4 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 47 | 2 | 21% | +5.4 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 | 13% | +2.7 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 | 33% | −6.6 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 4% | +1.2 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Dallas Turner | 2 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harrison Smith | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Jalen Redmond | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Levi Drake Rodriguez | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Greenard | 0 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Murphy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 |
| 91 |
| 6.1 |
| 1 |
| +5.2 |
| Malik Davis | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.8 |
| Brandon Aubrey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | +2.7 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | −0.4 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 111 | 0 | 29% | +5.9 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 | 14% | +2.6 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 17% | +0.4 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 | 3% | +2.2 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 3% | +1.2 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 9% | −4.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 11% | −1.0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 6% | +0.3 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 6% | −0.5 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | −0.7 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarvion Overshown | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Hooker | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shavon Revel Jr. | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Markquese Bell | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jadeveon Clowney | 1 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DaRon Bland | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Caelen Carson | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Clark | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donovan Wilson | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Quinnen Williams | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 |
