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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:37 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Jets164 of 172 plays carry both curves
(10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +5.2 for JaguarsExpected points +1.24 for JaguarsThe model had Jets 22 points higher than the market did.play 11
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:22JAX +5% win prob(10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:18NYJ +5% win prob(14:18) 1-T.Etienne left guard to JAX 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
1st · 14:56JAX +5% win prob(14:56) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 80-Q.Morris to JAX 35 for 7 yards (22-T.Adams).
1st · 13:29JAX +5% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to NYJ 42 for 15 yards (27-M.Moore).
1st · 11:36NYJ +3% win prob(11:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers to NYJ 11 for 10 yards (27-M.Moore).
1st · 8:49NYJ +3% win prob(8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).
1st · 9:31JAX +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Brian Thomas Jr.'s 4-yard touchdown catch with 10:22 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:22Brian Thomas Jr.·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Trevor Lawrencefrom Trevor LawrenceLead never changed again+70–7
Jaguars ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.79 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.16Jets: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.33Jaguars: +0.33 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.79Jaguars: +0.79 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Jets: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.51Jaguars: −0.51 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 68 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 56 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Jaguars 8.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.16.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, +7.7 pts, is past their previous high of +6.1 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
NYJ's blitz rate sent turned over: 50.0% in week 14 against 25.0% here — they sent pressure then and sat back now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.2 vs their 9.8%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.65× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars17.1%
inside their normal wobble · +3.9 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±4.2 week to week (+0.93× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.7 pts, 6.0 points above their season mean of 1.7 pts and 1.0 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
2 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 1 line has no expected-points read and sits off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Hall right−8% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:49) 20-B.Hall right end to NYJ 38 for -6 yards (44-T.Walker).
Q1 8:49 · Jets · 4th & 1 at NYJ 44 · lost 6 · -3.67 EP · −8.0% win probability
162 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 162 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 166. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 72 yards from the JAX 28 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
52%
Yards
722
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.3360%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.5965%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.3336%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3650%
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.0917%
Jaguars2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1060%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Jets0Jaguars6
Jets0Jaguars7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jets 4
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 44
Jets0Jaguars13
Jets0Jaguars14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Jets 12
Jets6Jaguars14
Jets7Jaguars14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jaguars 9
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to the Jets 32
2nd quarter57 plays
Jets7Jaguars20
Jets7Jaguars21
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 16
Punt10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jaguars 42
Punt4 plays
Jets10Jaguars21
Field goal9 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Jaguars 23
Jets10Jaguars24
Field goal14 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Jets 7
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 36
Jets10Jaguars30
Jets10Jaguars31
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 47 to the Jets 20
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Jets13Jaguars31
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jaguars 29
Jets13Jaguars37
Jets13Jaguars38
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 28 to the Jets 8
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jets 42
Jets13Jaguars41
Field goal7 plays, from the Jets 42 to the Jets 4
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jaguars 47
4th quarter40 plays
Jets19Jaguars41
Jets20Jaguars41
Touchdown3 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 24
Jets20Jaguars47
Jets20Jaguars48
Touchdown4 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 35 to the Jaguars 49
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Jaguars 29 to the Jaguars 31
Intercepted4 plays, from the Jaguars 16 to the Jaguars 3
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 29
Intercepted12 plays, from the Jets 23 to the Jaguars 36
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
