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2025 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 14, 2025 · TIAA Bank Stadium

New York Jets

20

Jacksonville JaguarsWinner

48

JAX -13.5 ✓O 40.5 ✓

Jacksonville Jaguars 48–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:22, JAX +5% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑NYJ ↓
Q1 · 10:22NYJ 0 — JAX 6JAX ball · 2nd & 3JAX 91%

(10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 10:22JAX +5% win prob(10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q1 · 14:18NYJ +5% win prob(14:18) 1-T.Etienne left guard to JAX 43 for 8 yards (44-J.Sherwood).
  3. Q1 · 14:56JAX +5% win prob(14:56) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 80-Q.Morris to JAX 35 for 7 yards (22-T.Adams).
  4. Q1 · 13:29JAX +5% win prob(13:29) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 3-J.Meyers to NYJ 42 for 15 yards (27-M.Moore).

How the points landed

Scoring summary

  1. Q1 · 10:22JAX Touchdown

    (10:22) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 7-B.Thomas for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — JAX 7
  2. Q1 · 6:35JAX Touchdown

    (6:35) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Defensive Holding, declined. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 0 — JAX 14
  3. Q1 · 1:51NYJ Touchdown

    (1:51) (Shotgun) 4-B.Cook pass short left to 15-A.Mitchell for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — JAX 14
  4. Q2 · 14:21JAX Touchdown

    (14:21) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 7 — JAX 21
  5. Q2 · 5:07NYJ Field goal

    (5:07) 6-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — JAX 21
  6. Q2 · 1:37JAX Field goal

    (1:37) 39-C.Little 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — JAX 24
  7. Q2 · 0:27JAX Touchdown

    (:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 1-T.Etienne for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 10 — JAX 31
  8. Q3 · 10:52NYJ Field goal

    (10:52) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — JAX 31
  9. Q3 · 7:06JAX Touchdown

    (7:06) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 1-T.Etienne for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — JAX 38
  10. Q3 · 1:46JAX Field goal

    (1:46) 39-C.Little 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    Score after this play: NYJ 13 — JAX 41
  11. Q4 · 14:15NYJ Touchdown

    (14:15) 32-I.Davis right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 20 — JAX 41
  12. Q4 · 13:51JAX Touchdown

    (13:51) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 1-T.Etienne for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. (kick good)

    Score after this play: NYJ 20 — JAX 48

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricJetsJaguars
Offensive plays6856
Total yards284440 (edge)
Yards per play4.27.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.160.33 (edge)
Success rate43%54% (edge)
Dropback rate60%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.200.79 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.09 (edge)-0.51
Third downs8/15 (edge)4/8
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)68 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps1722 (edge)
Sacks taken30 (edge)
Turnovers31 (edge)

Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.33 expected points added per play vs -0.16.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

20/32, 330 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT

23.8 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Brady CookQB

22/33, 176 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-7.8 expected points added · +3.1% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Isaiah DavisRB

9 att, 58 yds, 1 TD

4.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

Trevor LawrenceQB

5 att, 51 yds, 1 TD

5.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · JAX

Travis EtienneRB

3/4 for 73 yds, 3 TD

14% of team targets · 10.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/7 for 71 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 2811724:42Touchdown +7
2NYJNYJ 35531:32Turnover on downs
3JAXNYJ 386382:22Touchdown +7
4NYJNYJ 3510654:37Touchdown +7
5JAXJAX 457512:33Touchdown +7
6NYJNYJ 359233:34Punt
7JAXJAX 104-21:01Defensive touchdown
8NYJNYJ 369264:36Field goal +3
9JAXJAX 4011593:30Field goal +3
10NYJNYJ 35310:26Interception
11JAXNYJ 476520:46Touchdown +7
12NYJNYJ 35270:21End of half
13NYJNYJ 3510324:13Field goal +3
14JAXJAX 289723:46Touchdown +7
15NYJNYJ 35572:20Turnover on downs
16JAXNYJ 427382:58Field goal +3
17NYJNYJ 357552:35Touchdown +7
18JAXNYJ 454450:28Touchdown +7
19NYJNYJ 357113:08Punt
20JAXJAX 29260:52Fumble
21NYJJAX 164132:13Interception
22JAXJAX 20492:31Punt
23NYJNYJ 2312413:32Interception
24JAXJAX 24301:24End of game

12 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 72 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Brady Cook22/33176133-7.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Isaiah Davis9586.414.0
Brady Cook6396.500.1
Breece Hall12231.90-6.5
Andrew Beck155.001.3
Khalil Herbert252.50-0.5
John Metchie III144.00-0.2
Adonai Mitchell1-4-4.00-1.1

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Adonai Mitchell6958128%3.1
Isaiah Williams6753022%5.3
John Metchie III4525016%0.2
Breece Hall221406%0.4
Jeremy Ruckert221306%-0.0
Isaiah Davis11703%0.2
Allen Lazard12606%-6.6
Andrew Beck01003%-0.5
Khalil Herbert01003%-0.4
Arian Smith02006%-3.6

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Malachi Moore630.000
Jamien Sherwood530.000
Brandon Stephens500.001
Mykal Walker120.000
Jowon Briggs120.000
Tony Adams300.000
Dean Clark200.000
Jermaine Johnson II110.000
Qwan'tez Stiggers200.001
Harrison Phillips200.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Trevor Lawrence20/3233050023.8

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Trevor Lawrence55110.215.3
Travis Etienne12322.70-3.8
LeQuint Allen Jr.4112.80-1.9
Bhayshul Tuten177.000.4
Brian Thomas Jr.155.000.0
Dyami Brown144.00-5.5
Nick Mullens3-2-0.700.0

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Travis Etienne3473314%10.1
Jakobi Meyers5771025%4.8
Brian Thomas Jr.4766125%4.1
Parker Washington3353011%5.1
Brenton Strange1326011%0.5
Quintin Morris222007%1.2
Bhayshul Tuten111614%2.1
LeQuint Allen Jr.11504%0.1

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Foye Oluokun350.000
Andrew Wingard240.000
Devin Lloyd150.000
Eric Murray421.000
Greg Newsome II500.000
Antonio Johnson500.013
Montaric Brown400.011
Dennis Gardeck311.000
Travon Walker210.000
Jack Kiser210.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
JAX -13.5
Closing total
40.5
NYJ moneyline
+675
JAX moneyline
-1050

Jaguars closed -13.5 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 40.5; the game landed 68 — over by 27.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
70°F, wind 11 mph
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
NYJ 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Aaron Glenn vs Liam Coen