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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:37 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Titans161 of 173 plays carry both curves
(13:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 1-R.Pearsall to SF 38 for 8 yards (23-K.Winston).
Swing +4.1 for 49ersExpected points +0.60 for 49ersThe model had Titans 25 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:51SF +4% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 1-R.Pearsall to SF 38 for 8 yards (23-K.Winston).
2nd · 7:52SF +4% win prob(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 84-G.Helm for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:59SF +3% win prob(13:59) 3-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to SF 30, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
1st · 14:07TEN +3% win prob(14:07) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short right [56-K.White].
1st · 0:39SF +3% win prob(:39) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-D.Robinson ran ob at TEN 33 for 30 yards.
2nd · 6:56SF +2% win prob(6:56) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short right to 1-R.Pearsall pushed ob at SF 46 for 14 yards (35-K.Elam).
2nd · 7:38TEN +2% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jauan Jennings's 4-yard touchdown catch with 7:54 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
4th1:14Eddy Pineiro·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap J.Weeks+324–37
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by category49ers
Titans3–649ers
306Total yards430
6.2Yards per play6.1
51%Success rate53%
33%Third-down rate60%
2Red-zone touchdowns4
5Explosive plays6
17First downs25
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
49ers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Titans: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.2549ers: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.5349ers: +0.53 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.48Titans: +0.48 expected points added per play
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 49 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against 49ers’s 70 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, 49ers 6.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.25 expected points added per play vs 0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 15Against their seasonTendencies
SF's play-action rate, 29.7%, is past their previous high of 25.0% in week 9 — the highest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 17 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
10 of 12 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +0.3 vs their 15.9%, and they swing ±5.9 week to week (+0.05× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
49ers10.3%
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 9.5%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.16× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
NoteTEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.4 pts, 8.5 points below their season mean of -3.9 pts and 1.6 times their own 5.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
4 players played under 8 snaps, so their shares read as a dash rather than a number. 3 lines have no expected-points read and sit off the plane.
Expected points are modelled in full PPR, so the “vs expected” column stays in that unit whichever format the pills are set to. Switching the pills changes the points column, not the plane.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Ward pass+8% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep right to 84-G.Helm for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:52 · Titans · 1st & 20 at SF 34 · gained 34 · +3.95 EP · +7.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps, the eleven on the field by name, manual charting on 168. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 95 yards from the SF 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
53%
Yards
736
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. Open any play above to see the eleven men who were actually on the field for it.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.0767%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR36+0.2144%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.4470%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.230%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+1.0050%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.4117%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.2540%
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 34
Titans049ers6
Titans049ers7
Touchdown14 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the Titans 4
Titans349ers7
Field goal11 plays, from the Titans 30 to the 49ers 5
The period ended5 plays, from the 49ers 30 to the 49ers 37
2nd quarter50 plays
Titans349ers13
Titans349ers14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 1
Titans949ers14
Titans1049ers14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 32 to the 49ers 24
Titans1049ers17
Field goal17 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Titans 14
The period ended13 plays, from the Titans 40 to the 49ers 32
3rd quarter36 plays
Titans1049ers23
Titans1049ers24
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Titans 13
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 39
Titans1049ers30
Titans1049ers31
Touchdown17 plays, from the 49ers 5 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 41
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Titans1649ers31
Titans1749ers31
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 44 to the 49ers 1
Titans1749ers34
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Titans 18
Titans2349ers34
Titans2449ers34
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 36 to the 49ers 6
Titans2449ers37
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 35 to the Titans 22
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Titans 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
